BIDEN, POWELL, YELLEN- THE KEYSTONE COPS WOULD BE PROUD
Oh joy. President Biden is meeting with Jay Powell today. We’re thrilled.
The man Powell, who screwed savers with 0% rates…to the rescue. The man Powell, who enabled and created massive bubbles and debt…to the rescue. The man Powell, who distorted all price and yield…to the rescue. The man Powell, who lit the fuse on inflation with unimaginable amounts of money…to the rescue. The man Powell, who never saw the inflation coming…to the rescue. When inflation hit, the man Powell, who said no biggie…to the rescue. When inflation worsened, the man Powell, who said it was transitory…to the rescue. When inflation really started to kick in, the man Powell, who we were told was the solution to the inflation he started…to the rescue.
As we write this, the 10 year yield is back up to 2.86% this morning. The man Powell, who will rescue us from inflation is sitting below 1%…waaaaaay behind the real market. Yup…to the rescue. Feel better now! As we have stated several thousand times, there is too much of them and not enough of us. They do not shut up. They think they can control economies and markets. But the eventuality is what we told you over 2 years ago would occur, major distortions and major disruptions. Markets and economies are supposed to be free with maybe a little tinkering around the edges. But this man played God. No trust of the economy. No trust of free markets. No trust of people and business. You are seeing the outcome in real time. They are no longer predicting. They are praying. Inflation should eventually come down but we worry it will be for the wrong reasons.
OIL PRICES are now into the Eiffel Tower move that came right after the Russian invasion. The CRB index is at an 11 year high. That’s only a basket of 19 commodities. Peak inflation? And for those that believe in the fantasy of the Putin price hike, oil prices started kicking into gear December of 2020. For sure, a certain amount of the move was coming out of covid but President Joe, give us a break.
And then there is the President. Our President has stated that higher taxes and more government will cure inflation. Our President says a massive $5.8 trillion spending bill will lower debt and deficits. Our President who agreed with everything Powell has said is telling us everything will be just fine. Yup! Logic!
And then there is Yellen. Our guardian of our treasure. The Treasury Secretary who wants global taxes, higher taxes, massive government spending, continued huge debt and deficits and major league increased oversight over us. We have news for her. The oversight should be on them.
They are lucky they have us. Not the other way around. The people of this country and business of this country are a resilient bunch. But it is quite tough when we have to fight their headwinds on a daily basis. They don’t know. If they just left us the hell alone…
The Keystone Cops would be proud. We say this with no joy. We would rather be praising and complimenting these people. We mean that.
ANOTHER COUNTER TREND MOVE
Yes…we know it is the end of month window dressing period but window dressing is illegal so it does not occur.
Another counter-trend rally/bounce. We thought one was close. The thought process was that in less than 2 months, the NASDAQ had dropped almost 25% FROM A LOWER HIGH and the S&P almost 18%. That’s a lot of cake. It was also noted how bearishness statistics in many areas had hit extremes. And then this week.
BY NO ACCIDENT, Powell sent out 2 fed heads to jawbone the markets. That has been his M.O. since Christmas of 2018. One stated they could stop raising rates in September. This is amazing considering they are still a full 2 percentage points, big percentage points below the market. On top of that, another stated they can lower rates in get this…2024. Yes…they have got nothing right in 2021-2022 yet let’s predict 2024.
But we are also seeing bad news bought up. Several companies came out with poor numbers but still rallied. This just tells you how bombed out things had become. Many retail names, for lack of a better word, crashed.
So, now another nascent counter-trend move which hopefully, is getting some teeth today. ( It’s the close that counts) It’s quite sobering that since the highs, the longest counter-trend move lasted only 11 days. We’ll see if this time is different. The move was thin but now starting to broaden out.
We are already asked about whether we think this move is THE bottom. We hope so but too early to tell. Real bear market bottoms test and retest the lows a few times. Of course, Powell can announce $100 trillion of printed money and just send things straight into the stratosphere. (not sarcasm)
There is one thing already sticking out we really don’t like. On any rally, meme stocks get a life. Gamestop on the move again. We have never seen a bear market bottom with froth and speculation. Bear market bottoms usually have a ton of doubt.
As far as the fundamentals, oil prices continue higher, at $114 as we write this…not good. Yields have backed down a bit but still way higher than the recent past and much, much higher than our central bank. Do not get us started on the policies of this administration.
THE THINGS THAT DO NOT CHANGE
The things that do not change:
Every up day in the market and every reversal comes with the shouts of “the bottom.” There will come a time when they are correct. Keep in mind, when the DOW drops 2,000 points in a few days, it will bounce viciously.
Rallies are sharp, quick, make you feel good, suck you in and bury soon after. Almost 500 DOW points in 45 minutes to the close Friday and over 300 this morning on the open. That’s 800 points in 45 minutes Friday and an open this morning.
The mucky mucks in Davos will be preaching to us about climate change while we see pictures of hundreds of private jets. Love these people. They don’t give a crap what it looks like. By they way, there are plenty of commercial flights into Zurich.
The president will continue to say weird stuff that gets rolled back almost immediately…and on vital stuff like China/Taiwan.
Analyst target prices continue to come down but to show you how bad things are, they are still way above current price on many things.
Bill de Blasio, whose popularity is a wee bit lower than a red ant hill is going to run for office again because he did such a marvelous job with New York City. “Tax the hell out of the wealthy” time.
Twitter will not be bought by Musk at $54.20. Not at $44.20. $34.20 anyone?
The president calls for OPEC to raise production but continues to ignore places like the Permian basin that only has an estimated 20 billion barrels. President Kaltbaum would be front and center calling for the 11 million barrels produced each day ramped up to over 15 million each day. Wouldn’t happen immediately but just on that message, watch investors, speculators and traders sell price and even short price.
Egomaniacal central bankers will continue to not shut up, telling us all will be ok. Not a mention that maybe, just maybe they are the problem. In fact, some keep saying they have done a fine job. Last week, we counted over 100 quotes on markets, inflation and rates from them. Our favorites are when they say markets are functioning well.
Biased media will continue to play down the causes of inflation with one coming out all but saying no biggie because Americans received plenty of cake from the government. (Hear that Harwood?) Tell that to one of our drivers in NYC who pays for his own gas and says to us and we quote, ” I don’t even know what discretionary spending is any more.”
The one thing that has changed.
My son Aaron is now married. A great weekend for the family. Aaron and Marissa Kaltbaum are now official. We are busting with pride and joy.
