OUR CONTINUED THOUGHTS ON THE NIGHTMARE RUNNING THE CENTRAL BANK

BY GARY KALTBAUM- MAY 5, 2022
We were apoplectic yesterday when it was reported by the many that Jay Powell is now fighting the inflation, the inflation he mostly created. SAY WHAT? Fighting inflation?
For the zillionth time, we warned you about the most important financial person on earth. We warned you he doesn’t understand what he created and certainly doesn’t understand how to attack the problems he created.
Inflation fighter our —-.
First off, yesterday’s big day…most of the biggest days markets have had throughout history occur during bear markets.
Today…back to reality. Rates are jumping again to new highs as the market realizes JAY POWELL DID NOTHING YESTERDAY TO FIGHT THE INFLATION HE CREATED. Yes…absolutely nothing. The evidence: After yesterday, the man sits fed funds just above 0.75%. As we write this:
The 1 year yield is ever over 2%. The 1 year yielded basically nothing less than a year ago.
The 2 year yield is over 2.7%
The 5 year yield is 3.045%
The 10 year yield is 3.09%
The 30 year yield is 3.18%.
We repeat, the inflation fighter is at 0.75%.
Jay Powell boxed himself in by doing nothing, missing the whole inflation story and now, still doing nothing while it is being reported he is now in the fight against inflation. This is a joke. Jay Powell is now boxed in because he did not fight inflation early when GDP was humming. GDP is now contracting and he is now forced to do what he doesnt want to do. If we took over the Fed today, we would immediately raise fed funds to 2% and take the medicine quickly.
As far as the market, we started warning way back in 21 about all the bubbles that Powell created popping. They have all now popped. They have even taken the megacap tech stalwarts. Next up will be the indices playing catch-up with the average stock that is so much worse than the indices. Next up will be the wealth effect deepening the contraction. (even global bond markets are down $8 trillion) Next up will be housing as the bubble of affordability and now skyrocketing mortgages is a 1-2 punch.
Jay Powell sits at 0.75% and says he has tools. Jay Powell continues to be treated like he knows what he is doing. We take no joy on taking this man on. We would rather be telling you what a great job he is doing. But facts are facts. It is going to get worse.

THE INEPT FED

BY GARY KALTBAUM- MAY 4, 2022
We have been warning you since Christmas 2018 when Jay Powell stopped raising rates only because markets were dropping. We warned you when he kept lowering rates in 2019 every time markets dropped. We warned you when Jay Powell started his “Don’t call it QE” October 2019 when GDP was around 3% and unemployment was in the 3s. We warned you when he went ridiculously too far printing unimaginable amounts and sat there as we came out of covid.
As we write this:
30 year yield – 3.022%
10 year yield – 2.987%
5 year yield – 3.046%
2 year yield – 2.836%
1 year yield – 2.157%
3 month yield – 0.932
Jay Powell will be raising fed funds to a whopping 0.75%- To the rescue? We don’t think so!
Yet, when we turned on the tube this morning, a national media channel show was on telling us that because of Jay Powell’s move today, our mortgage rates and cost of loans will be going up. Say what?  We weep for those who watch those who do no homework on the facts. The fact is real rates, the rates that matter most, have been skyrocketing for months. Jay Powell is just playing catch up. Jay Powell is behind by miles. Jay Powell kept printing trillions into a strong economy coming out of covid. He is now raising rates into what is already a contraction of one quarter and most likely, more to come.  And you wonder why we think he should be replaced immediately.The market itself, has already done the tightening…without him.
0.75% is still ridiculously easy money. Jay Powell is not tightening. As stated, he is just playing catch up and he is still way behind after today. Do not be snowed into believing he is on the ball. He is way, way, way, way, way behind what the markets are screaming. All eyes will be on Jay Powell today when all eyes should just be on real world yields. If they continue going higher, nothing good happens. We do not expect any tough questions today.
Jay Powell and the rest are now in prayer mode. Their imbecilic “transitory” showed their incompetence while so many of us knew exactly what was going on. We are in hopes their prayers come true and inflation backs down. Unfortunately, he (they) are doing nothing to fight inflation. And to make matters worse, the dolts running the ECB make Powell look like Paul Volcker. They are still in negative rate mode.
We have stated the biggest bubble was in the bond market…the market that was interfered with with unimaginable amounts of money. We warned of the eventual unwind. Global bonds have now dropped $8 trillion from the highs.
Jay Powell will be going to 0.75% today while the 1 year…the 1 year is yielding 2.147%. He will still even behind the 3 month t-bill yielding 0.932%.
After an over 11% drop in the NASDAQ in 8 trading days and an almost 8% drop in the S&P 500 over that same time, markets are bouncing a bit from these stretched, extended and oversold conditions. Bearishness has picked up big time. Keep in mind, the main trend remains the main trend. After the latest deluge, about the only areas staying in gear but wobbly are the oils and commodities.

RADIO SHOW 5/2- Another reversal day that will—-

SOURCE: https://www.spreaker.com/user/10863617/ie-05-02-22