TARIFFS AND ALL THAT CRAP!
-Do you believe us now? For months, we have been telling you that nothing good comes from tariffs. For months, we have been told by the backers that it was just a tactic. Those backers of tariffs would have ripped any Democrat to shreds who applied tariffs…that hurt farmers…and then subsidized those farmers. We have even watched in amazement how some “conservative” economists all of a sudden…love tariffs. Don’t you just love politics?! So…-
-Trust matters. We have been told that China pays for the tariffs. We know better. Even Kudlow knows better as he stated the truth over the weekend. How long until Kudlow is out of a job? We have been told for months that we are in a stronger position than China. We have been told for months that negotiations were coming along nicely. We were told for weeks that they were getting close. We were told for days that it was just a matter of dotting the I’s and crossing the T’s. We were told a dozen times on Friday that again, talks were “constructive.” We find out this weekend talks were not constructive.-
-And:-
-China Global Times Editor Hu Xijin tweeting “China may stop purchasing US agricultural products and energy, reduce Boeing (BA) orders and restrict US service trade with China. Many Chinese scholars are discussing the possibility of dumping US Treasuries and how to do it specifically.” –
-And:-
-China confirms it will raise tariff rate on $60 bln tranche to a floating range of 5-25% from 5-10% prior; tariff rate will go into effect June 1st at 12:01 a.m.-
-And:-
-Apple (AAPL) is down another $8.30 this morning as trade tensions escalate between the U.S. and China. Apple’s iPhones and Apple Watches are currently exempted from tariffs but could be subject to the new tariffs. –
-Boeing (BA) is down another $12 this morning on the news.-
-Chinese ADRs are again mauled.-
-Major indices, both here and around the globe are again smacked. Futures down almost 500 DOW points this morning.-
-Markets have to be worried that this started with “the tweets out of nowhere” giving all business a measly 5 days to prepare for new tariffs. Markets were prepared for the exact opposite.-
-Markets have to be worried that the President gets it plainly wrong on who pays the tariffs…and all one has to do is “google” WHO PAYS TARIFFS?-
-Markets have to be worried that this will only escalate.-
-Markets have to be worried that China has shown what we already knew and that is they will only act in their own best interest. Remember, China will not have elections in 2020.-
-Markets also have to be worried about Iran, North Korea, Russia, Nadler, Mueller, debt, deficits, the mediocre Mets, the mother of dragons and all that crap.-
-After a nice reversal off the all-important 50 day moving average Friday…it again gets tested this morning. The hope is another reversal at this vital support. This is not out of the question. But…we think the word “constructive” has now been played out and not sure what does the trick. Hopefully, the institutions stand up again and defend. Again, not out of the question but leave no doubt, every time down gets the internals deteriorating.-
-Other stuff:-
-UBER…You mean a company that loses 58 cents every time they provide a service does not open well after the other company (LYFT) gets bombed from their opening price?-
-“Constitutional Crisis!” Yup…the new favorite “go to” term of a certain party which of course gets parroted by the media. You mean $22 trillion of debt and $1 trillion yearly deficits is not a constitutional crisis?-
-A certain congresswoman now says it was sarcasm when she said that we have 12 years to save the planet. Thanks for the head’s up. We had no idea you were full of …. Speaking of full of…., so when Al Gore said 13 years ago that we had 10 years or else…what was that?-
It’s Trump’s plan to cut fed rates. Inflation will come with rising prices and fed will cut, stimulating economy again and another QE will be done after that. This will raise stock market like always. China needs our AG products this is a threat, it won’t be long term.
Trump is not a details guy. Yes, consumers pay for the tariffs. At least the deficit will be reduced? One of three things happens.
#1) We give up and go back to 0 tariffs on the worlds most dangerous adversary. China keeps ripping us off in every way possible
#2) We eventually buy from other sources or build our own. China gets hurt, US evens out. Good outcome
#3) China capitulates and we get a better deal. Probably though China will bet on Trump being voted out of office.
Speaking of full of…., so when Al Gore said 13 years ago that we had 10 years or else…what was that?-
Answer: Marketing
With regard to tariffs, of course either American businesses or their customers will pay for tariffs in the short term but in the intermediate to long term China will either lower their prices or importers and manufacturers will move production facilities to other countries just as they left our factories to find the lowest cost producer. It would be nice if the production could be shifted to this hemisphere where poverty is so pervasive.