BIT-CON, BITTER-COIN, BITE THE COIN

When bitcoin was in flight, a flight we basically have never seen, we wrote and told you some simple words: WE HAD NO IDEA HOW EXACTLY IT WOULD PLAY OUT…JUST DO NOT BE THE LAST ONE IN WHEN THE  MUSIC STOPPED. We said this for several reasons but the most important was the fact that the loudest of noise came not 3 years ago, not 2 years ago, not 1 year ago but in the mid-December period AFTER it made a gargantuan run. That’s when all the geniuses came out of the woodwork. That’s when a certain channel had a parade of them telling us $50,000, $100,000 and one dummy actually calling for $1 million.  We simply recognized this ASSet class was in a climactic run…a classic climactic run…and to be careful. What else gave us pause?

Iced tea, fruit juice, cigar companies changing their name to benefit from the mania. That was a gimmee. We told you and Stuart Varney’s tv audience they would all go back where they came from. Our term “questionable” companies was being nice. They have mostly gone back where they came from with a couple names stopped trading because of how suspect they were. And kudos to the SEC for putting any other companies on notice,

Not kidding…we received hundreds of spam emails from people telling us to join in on the bitcoin millions…again, AFTER the monstrous run.

Aunt Mary, Uncle Bob, Cousin Harry and his pet beagle all asking whether they should buy into bitcoin. We know of many who sold out all stocks, leveraged credit cards and all that crap just to get into it AFTER the run.

Coin-based hedge funds proliferating…raising zillions of capital…AFTER the run.

Over 1500 other coins created…talk about diluting your business. Even that socialist haven, Venezuela came out with a coin….because 10,000% inflation just wasn’t cutting it.

Packed coin shows…in fact, double-packed shows.

We can go on but we actually bring it up today because bitcoin has now dropped from almost $20,000 to under $7,000…and the same nut jobs are still out to convince the world it is just going to go back up…and even much higher. Funny, not one has been able to explain what the economic value behind it is.

Even with this drop, we heard one “expert” compare bitcoin to Microsoft. (Cue the laugh track!) We heard a silicon valley dude say again it will go to $1 million. Does this person know that someone will have to pay $999,999.99 in order for that to happen. We continue to be invited to bitcoin gatherings. We continue to get ads for the bitcoin millions that are straight ahead.  So…nothing has changed except price continues into oblivion.

Let us repeat. WE HAVE NO IDEA EXACTLY HOW THIS WILL PLAY OUT. JUST DO NOT BE THE LAST ONE IN. The fact is anything is possible. Price is what someone is willing to pay. We do not know if it just turns into dust now or flies back to the upside. But we have news for you, neither do these charlatans that continue to profess (pray) that it is going to go back up. Just remember, when all is said and done, value does matter. We suspect the people at Microsoft have yet to lose any sleep.

SHORT TAKE ON THE MARKET: Longer-term support was holding nicely until the last few minutes Friday but still a decent enough day. But, as we scanned a couple thousand names, 200 sectors and a bunch of countries over the weekend, that’s all the market has going for it, holding on to longer-term support. As we stated last week, and to be clear, longer-term support better hold…and the prez obviously did not listen to us as he went after Amazon again this weekend. He know not what problems he can create for markets when you go after arguably, the leading mega-cap growth stock in the market.