ASKED AND ANSWERED
SpaceX – 911.5 million shares get unlocked today which is 140% of the public float. Of course, that can be an issue. But may we state that the news is already known. But we will repeat what we have said on day one whether the stock was going up for those first couple of days or coming down ever since…valuations matter. Sometimes they matter in the long run and sometimes they matter in the short run. You must also understand there was precedent for this action. There is a laundry list of IPO’s going back the past couple of years that were hyped and touted, not as much as SpaceX, but much. Most all opened up hot and most all have crumbled because of…valuation. No edge here. No man’s land. They can bounce it or drop it more. We really believed the bankers would do everything possible to defend the IPO price but to no avail. We do believe growth will be strong going forward. In fact, Elon said that he believes they will have $1 trillion of revenues by 2030, moving that date up from 2031. That is one heady prediction.
We continue to be wary of the semiconductor/artificial intelligence trade for a simple technical reason. Most of them are trading below the all important 50 day moving average if not worse. That’s the technical part of it. Let’s add in how very over-owned and over-leveraged they have become but also we question have numbers peaked? This can change and will keep you informed. A good lesson is to not leverage 400% on higher beta names.
Just wondering if gold and to a lesser extent, silver turned the corner yesterday. Gold did gap up above the 50 day moving average for the first time in a long while. Jury is still out.
Crypto remains crapto. Just backing and filling near the bear market lows. It had better not break the lows of the past 9 weeks. Our constant warnings on Microstrategy prove it is no “Strategy” to leverage one item that has no sales, no earnings, no products or services. It is also stunning to watch the man running the show act so nonchalantly as the stock price craters.
NVIDIA acts like a meme stock both up and down and right now, up. It’s good being friends with Elon. The latest announcement really juiced this name back up.
New highs in a couple of big indices. Not everything but one can’t complain about new highs for a couple of big indices. Just keep in mind that in the Dow, a select high priced few names continue to do the heavy lifting.
Watch yields! Seriously! Watch them yields.
So…do we have a deal? Still don’t know but “everything is great!”
The Mets? Waaaah! But we can always fall back on the Knicks are still the champ. That is your sports part of this report.
Rush at Madison Square Garden…fabulous. Will see them a few more times on tour. That is your music part of this report.
The elections. Yes those primary elections. Sorry to tell you but look no further than the other party on why so many, and we don’t say this lightly, so many communists are winning their primaries. If the other party did their job, it would be a lot tougher. Unfortunately, the other party practices a decent amount of socialism themselves. All one has to do is take out a pen and paper and list with no bias what we are talking about.