In the past few weeks, I’ve been telling you that the end of the year has a tremendous track record.

The last 10 out of 10 years, from Veterans Day until the end of the year – UP.

The past 22 out of the 24 years – UP.

Yet since Veterans Day, the market has been kinda sucking wind. And every day, I’ve been coming on this show  saying, “Wow, is it ugly…there is no leadership…Wow they just can’t get this market moving.”

And then what happens? At the end of November, 2 huge gaps up in the market, making the end of the month look so much better. Then the market tops out again into yesterday.

…Leaving only eight days left in the year with the S&P down for year. With the NYSE, the Russell and the other indices down a decent amount. Foreign markets, basically trashed. What do they do?

They gapped it up 260 points today…and had a very strong day…the third huge gap since November 28.

Leave no doubt I play the market as it comes. I will let the market dictate no matter. But for me, I think they have started the “mark up” period — now with seven days left.

And of course, this Friday things will quiet down. And of course, next Friday will quiet down. I am thinking  that the S&P will be above 1258 because 1258 is where the S&P started this year. They’re going to do their very best.

I’m letting you know, I’ll play it as it comes:

If we can get leadership..,

If we can get stocks breaking out on heavy volume…

If we can start to see some success in those moves…and then more and more names show up…I WILL BE DO EVERYTHING TO BE ALL OVER IT.

But as of right now, it’s one day up. I do expect higher prices at the end of the year. ..but I will need leadership.

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Gary Kaltbaum owns Kaltbaum Capital Management, LLC (“KCM”), an investment adviser registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The opinions expressed herein are those of Mr. Kaltbaum and may not reflect those of KCM. The information offered in this publication is general information that does not take into account the individual circumstances, financial situation or individual needs of an investor. The information herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we cannot assure its accuracy or completeness. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. Any reference to past performance is not to be implied or construed as a guarantee of future results.


One Comment

  1. Hi Gary, I continue to like your radio show. My 2011 asset allocation remained within a few percent of 55% equities with one Master Ltd Partnership and 45% intermediately laddered double tax-free muni bonds. Our income yield was 4% and our annual portfolio growth was 5% with half donated to matching philanthropic addiction prevention and recovery programs in Portland, Oregon. I am proudest of our direct sobriety-related support with 155 Sobriety Pledges from teens who honor their minds, bodies, and spirits without drugs or alcohol on our Sobriety Pledge webpage. Kids who don’t drink or drug before 21 significantly reduce the possibility for future addiction. 622 participants collectively celebrate 8200 clean & sober years on our Sobriety Anniversary webpage. These are gifts beyond financial measure! I subscribe to Bob Brinker’s Marketimer newsletter,and I listen to your radio program. You both offer valuable insight and seasoned experience. He’s “all in” and right now am I correct in assuming you’re “all out”? My approach is to split the difference with a keen eye on earnings, growth, and yield in the midst of manic market swings. Make sense? With a total return in the neighborhood of 9% and the S&P slightly below water, I am pleased with our results.
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