WEEKEND NOTES
A big salute to all those who have fought for our freedoms. We should not just think of these brave men and women on holidays but every day.
Greetings from Lake Como, Italy. Haven’t seen the Clooneys yet. Beautiful, beautiful area. Bucket list stuff!
Very tight closes in the market over the past couple of weeks AFTER a move back up off the lows. Normally, when markets go tight after a move up, they continue up but:
We hate the word bifurcated but this market is the definition of bifurcated as bull and bear markets trade side by side. It is not just sectors but countries and market cap. We count only about 40% of the market in uptrends. In order for the market to really get going, need to see this number in the 70s.
Countries like Brazil, Argentina continue to implode. Other countries continue to under-perform while over here, small caps are at new highs while the DOW and S&P continue to lag.
Last week, we told you OILS/ENERGY were still the strongest area but were now stretched and extended to the upside. We now think there is a decent chance oil prices finally topped for now with an ugly Friday. Many oil names look topped with some already breaking down. Areas that weakened on higher oil look to be bottoming with the chance that oil has topped. (cruise lines/airlines)
Remember the 10 year above 3%. Already back below. This is helping utilities and other interest-rate sensitive areas. Nothing bad happens if rates and oil prices come down.
GOLD still aint happening.
BIG FINANCIALS still aint happening with names like CITI breaking down.
Still seeing very good bullish basing patterns in many important growth names. This is very important to the market. We love that we are seeing constructive action here.
The important SEMIS continue to improve and TRANSPORTS now edging above near term resistance.
RUSSELL remains the strongest with NASDAQ/NDX just behind with DOW/S&P still lagging.
And BITCOIN…you know our stance. While many were going nuts when bitcoin was going parabolic, we were yelling to avoid. What amazes us is that after an almost 70% drop from the highs, after a bunch of “questionable” companies stopped trading, after coin after coin was foisted upon an unwary public, after a decent amount of fraud was found and after a ton of money has been lost, the bitcoiners are still out in droves trying to sell us on the gargantuan future gains to come even though they did not see the 70% drop coming. A couple of well-knowns have been out calling for 100,000, even 1,000,000 price. That means someone would have to pay 999,999.99. Again, we do not know exactly how this plays out. Maybe it rallies back up or maybe it just keeps heading lower. Hint…a break of the Feb 5th and March 29 double bottom lows and double good night…and it is getting close. We are still waiting to hear what economic value any of these coins have.