TRIANGLES AND SEASONALITY

[email_link]

A few numbers on seasonality:

I have read and verified that the market has been up the past 10 years from Veteran’s day into the end of the year…as well, it has been up the past 22 of 24 years. I cannot ignore these numbers. The reason given is that the boys do everything possible to make their year. Looks like they are pretty good at it.

On top of that, markets are sitting in a very nice triangle pattern here. The midpoint is at about the 1255 S&P area. One good up day takes the market above the triangle. Of course, one bad down day takes you down below the triangle…but with seasonal strength, hoping for the upside. Of course, don’t blink as this remains one of the toughest market environments I have experienced. Resistance remains in the 1250-1280 S&P area…with the financials remaining an anchor while the semis continue to provide some wind.

If seasonality means anything…well, I had better shut up. Just don’t blink as this will remain a news-driven environment.

Gary Kaltbaum owns Kaltbaum Capital Management, LLC (“KCM”), an investment adviser registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The opinions expressed herein are those of Mr. Kaltbaum and may not reflect those of KCM. The information offered in this publication is general information that does not take into account the individual circumstances, financial situation or individual needs of an investor. The information herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we cannot assure its accuracy or completeness. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. Any reference to past performance is not to be implied or construed as a guarantee of future results.