Our Three Thoughts!

Greetings as we continue our trek to Tokyo.  Loving these long trips.

We had 3 simple thoughts coming into this week that we wrote you about:

1) We were not out of the woods yet! Check! Market fell 600 points in 2 days. We just thought that first bungee jump bounce was just that.

2) Last Monday’s nauseating low would hold for now! Check!

3) Expect more wild up and down action! Discount double check!

Yesterday’s late action convinces us even more that FOR NOW, last Monday’s lows are not going to be taken out. Simple as that. (FOR NOW means FOR NOW!) The rest is all about being in no man’s land as price now starts to catch up with moving averages or you can say moving averages catch up with price. This happens over time while one moves down as price moves up.

Keep in mind…and let us say this loudly. IF THIS EVENTUALLY  HAS MORE TO GO ON THE DOWNSIDE, THESE RALLIES DO NOTHING MORE THAN MAKE EVERYONE FEEL BETTER, HAVE EVERYONE CALLING THE BOTTOM, SUCK EVERYONE IN AND THEN BURY THEM SOON AFTER. So careful. We believe there is a long trade out there for this second but not sure we can go further than THIS SECOND. This is a market that simply is going to p— everyone off before it is all said and done.

The next time we write to you, we will be hanging on the streets of the Ginza! Be well.