Shortened holiday week for markets!
“WE HEAD INTO THE HOLIDAYS”
We would like to wish each and every one of you a safe, happy and healthy Thanksgiving holiday.
Tidbits:
Amazon and Google (we cannot call it Alphabet) have added approximately 460 points to the Nasdaq 100 this year. The index itself has gained about 420 points. If not for these two stocks, the index would be down. If you add in #3 and #4, Facebook and Netflix, we are then at a -5% for the index.
EVEN WITH THE RALLY UP IN THE BIG CAP INDICES: Interest rate sensitive areas like utilities, real estate and housing…gold/ silver, steel, aluminum, metals/ores, copper, coal,nickel, tin, fertilizers, rails, truckers, junk bonds, disk drives, drug stores. hospitals, managed care, biotech, media, hotels (even with a big buyout), a ton of retail especially department stores, restaurants, food, drugs, beverages, household products, insurance, construction equipment and machinery, casino and gaming, oils, natural gas AIN’T WORKING and in the case of commodities, just a big wow to the persistent bear market that continues. On top of that, small and mid caps continue to underperform.
We guarantee you Europe raises their amount of money printing in December. Markets are already reacting to Draghi’s telegraphing the move.
We have been telling you forever that Yellen would never raise rates. Up until now, she has not failed us. We are amazed that they have made the measly raising of rates from 0-1/4% to 1/4% into some kind of gargantuan event when it is absolutely meaningless in the scheme of things. It makes us ill that markets and savers continue to be held hostage.
We know we sound a little bah humbug as we head into the holidays but we are just reporting to you the news. The fact is the rallies remain narrow. The fact is there are still more new yearly lows than new yearly highs on a daily basis. The fact is there still is not a lot of leadership. For sure, there are things working…just not a lot…and when markets are this narrow, if distribution shows up in a meaningful fashion, markets are easier to take down.
On top of those megacap tech/internet names, areas still acting well are:
Home improvement retail, home products, defense (markets like a good war), credit cards, a few airlines, oil refiners, alcoholic beverages…and not finding much more.
Keep in mind, we are told the shortened Thanksgiving week is supposed to have a positive bias.
Couldn’t agree more on commodities. An anecdote. I am a fairly aggressive aluminum can recycler. Prices for scrap aluminum cans continue to fall, and are now down to 37 cents per pound. They were 40 cents per pound in August or early September.