PRE MARKET

Futures reversed overnight. Were down 200…now down just a wee bit…but was actually up nicely 30 minutes ago. Let’s not forget a few important factors.

MAJOR INDICES are now sitting at or near the lows that have now been hit three times. The last time was Thursday, where the market experienced a strong reversal. Friday was less than thrilling. Until the indices get taken out, they are not. DUH!

On the POTENTIAL…and only say POTENTIAL positive side:

Sentiment is extremely bearish. One of our main indicators is now sitting where it was at the June and August lows. Keep in mind, just because sentiment is bearish, it does not mean the market turns. Sentiment is a secondary indicator. price is primary.

We continue to believe THE FED AND BEN (JAY POWELL) BERNANKE WILL BE DONE WITH RATE HIKES NEXT WEEK. As you know, at least we think you know, markets have been on a magic carpet of easy money through the years where rates were kept at 0% for 8 years and $trillions were printed. We are amazed at so many that are pissed because the fed is at a measly 2%. On top of that, the more important 10 year is less than 2.9% To this day, Europe and Japan are still negative with rates and still printing money. WE DO NOT IGNORE THIS BECAUSE WE HAVE SEEN FIRST HAND WHAT EASY MONEY HAS DONE FOR MARKETS. The question will be whether we are finally to the point where markets ignore the fed. WE ALSO EXPECT FEDHEADS TO JAWBONE EASY MONEY IN THE WEEKS AHEAD. They already started last week.

OIL PRICES are a HUGE expense cut to the consumer and business. If prices just stay around here for the next year, the consumer keeps about $80 billion in their pocket. Of course, as we have stated, a crash in oil prices may be telegraphing big slowdowns…which we are starting to see right now.

It’s December. We know. We also said it was Thanksgiving week. Just realize this is the big money’s chance to make things right into the end of year. We will be watching extra closely in the days ahead. Seasonal strength is important but has not worked 100% of the time, especially in bearish markets.