Numbers do not lie!
By Gary Kaltbaum-June 28,2016
We double checked these numbers. They had better be right.
After the recent smackdown of markets, we thought it important we sent this out again just to make a point of what all the easy money has brought or bought. We are optimists but we deal in facts first and foremost.
At yesterday’s lows:
The S&P was down 6.7% from highs and was trading where it was in Sept 2014.
The Dow…down 7.5% and Sept 2014.
Nasdaq…down 12.6% and Sept 2014.
Nasdaq 100…down 11.8% and Nov 2014.
Transports…down 24.5% and Nov 2013.
Russell 2000…down 16.2% and Oct 2013.
NYSE…down 11.9% and July 07…no…not kidding.
XLF…down 43% and trading where it was in 1999. Yes…financials and yes 1999!
How about foreign markets?
German Dax…down 25.6% and Jan 2014.
FTSE…down 18.7% and March 98…again…not kidding. We were surprised about this.
Shanghai…down a whopping 54%…and Feb 07.
Nikkei…down an unreal 61.8%/all time high in 1989 at 38,957. How’s that money printing working for you?
Hang Seng…38.5% and Jan 07.
Of course, off the lows of 09, markets have moved nicely off the back of a normal recovery but leave no doubt, off the largess of central banks to the tune of $15-20 trillion of printed money, 0% rates forever, negative rates and the outright buying of markets by these unelected, unaccountable easy money maniacs.
Blab blab blab…..
What it really boils down to, is, the uup is very over bought, and the market is very over sold.
If/when the dollar pulls back, the market will rally…….. until the dollar stops pulling back.
Q: Will we rally to the descending 50d MA ?
A: I dunno, that depends upon;
1, how far the dollar falls.
2, how much money the big money wants to put into the market right at EOQ ( end of quarter).