MR. MARKET AND OTHER STUFF

Most now playing out as we thought:

In the past 6 months, there has now been 51 central bank rate cuts around the globe. On top of that, trillions are being printed with the championship belt actually going to “don’t call it QE Powell!” In fact, he is printing more money than Bernanke did when we had high single digit unemployment and still had worries about a continued financial meltdown.

Based on this, based on lots of cash on the sideline and based on seasonality, we told you we thought all this could cause a good end of year move. We are now in the midst of getting it in spite of flat to down earnings. We are getting it in spite of slowing growth. We are getting it in spite of continued massive debt and deficits.  We will let you know when and if anything changes but for now, you see it. Easy money, a lot of cash on the sidelines and seasonality continue doing the trick.

Trade truce!Frankly, we are not sure what it is but we will take it. We have been writing recently our belief was something could and would happen in order to give the president the cover and reason for backing away from new tariffs again.  Just remember what we have told you…just about every trade threat was never  followed through on despite harsh rhetoric on a daily basis. European auto tariffs were stopped days before they were supposed to go on. Mexico tariffs? Nah! How many times were we told new China tariffs were going to be placed? We are not complaining. It is good to see the president recognize tariffs do not work. There was a reason the president used $28 billion of our tax dollars to pay off the farmers.

Impeachment is at hand. Raise your hand if you care. Our radio audience cannot care less because they recognize it is pure politics. We must tell you when we were listening to witnesses for the left, we thought we were listening to anyone who goes on MSNBC or CNN every minute of every day. We must tell you that this was pre-ordained as the lefties were calling for impeachment before the man entered the White House. We do think this opens up a big problem going forward as the bar has just dropped significantly on impeachment for future presidents. “Be careful what you wish for” again comes to mind.

Polls? A survey of a few thousand people tells us where the country is. Yup…that worked well in the last election. We continue to be amazed how many polls are still being conducted after what happened in the 2016 election. A reminder:

Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin…a total of 75 electoral votes…out of approximately 23 million total votes, the president won by only about 190,000 total votes. Look no further again. Won Michigan by 11,000 out of 4.8 million votes….Wisconsin 23,000 out of 2.97 million votes…Pennsylvania  44,000 out of 6.15 million votes and Florida 113,000 votes out of 9.4 million votes.  Notwithstanding some big event before next November, these will remain the 4 that matter.

Elizabeth Warren’s poll numbers have been dropping quicker than the NY Knicks season. What a concept? Facts and numbers do matter. We saw a study that stated her wealth tax would raise less money than thought. We believe this study was wrong. THE WEALTH TAX WOULD RAISE NO MONEY. Correct…we say no money. Every one of these “corrupt” wealthy people are already consulting their people on where they can be domiciled if the Senator or Bernie even get close to the White House. A millionaire’s tax in France had tens of thousands fleeing the country before the moronic confiscation was repealed. Let us also not forget Ms. Warrens’s 14.8% tax on $250k and up to pay more social security to other people…to be shared by payer and payee. Sure…that won’t hurt the economy. She then adds a 14.8% tax on those same people’s investment income. Sure…that won’t hurt. She wants to roll back tax cuts and regulatory cuts. That should work. Let us also not forget that the wealthy have a lot of their capital tied up in businesses, stocks, real estate and other investments. Sure, all that selling should help out markets. Who is going to do the audit to value all this? The bottom line is not only will people, money, business and capital flee, ensuring that money won’t be raised for the treasury but economic growth would also fall markedly ensuring not only will it not raise any new money but flows into the treasury would actually head south.