KALTBAUM PREMARKET
Futures are up a wee bit as I do think there is some more upside in the near term off the reaction low of this week…but straight ahead is the potential for a ton of short set-ups as things bounce into resistance/moving averages. That could change if we get a high volume, follow through day but I do not think much can come from it as there is not a lot of leadership.
This morning…I want to answer to all a bunch of emails I have received over time. I paraphrase to keep things brief:
Do I think the final top is in for Apple? MAYBE! I give it better than 50% odds now for a few reasons. First…the stock is up from $10 to $705 since 2003. All great stocks have a shelf life. Second…it is now the most over-owned stock in history. You can see what can happen to an over-owned stock when things turn south. That was a $200 drop. Fundamentally, I think the company is battling law of bigness where things have to slow on a relative basis. On top of that, Steve Jobs passed away…and may I say, I think Apple not being smart by leaving things off of a product for only one reason…to bring out the product again. I think that will lose steam going forward. There will not be an IPHONE 50.
Do I really believe a lot of the market’s rally since 09 has been the Fed? YES! Just go look at when the Fed announced all there printing of money. It is no coincidence…March 09…Aug 2010…Oct 2011….but this last time…which was Sept 13, 2012…has not worked.
Thoughts on housing stocks? They remain in a bull but no more dart throwing…BZH,DHI,MDC,MTH,TOL look like decent tops. RYL,LEN remain the strongest.
Do I have any thoughts on 2013? Yes…I am keeping it in my mind that many first years of Presidential cycles are not good. I add in the poor earnings and sales growth and it gives me pause…but no matter what I think, I will listen to the market.
Why am I so against tax increases? I am not against them. I am against them right now because the people in power do not allocate our hard-earned capital correctly. There is a great case to say they just give it to their buddies and friends. Our taxpayer dollars should be cherished and not wasted.
Have I identified some potential names off of IPOS of the past year? I have my list. Very simply…the next great IPOs will break out of bases and show extraordinary growth in earnings and sales and have reasonable valuations. LNKD has fabulous numbers but thinking it came out at too high of a number. I will keep you all apprised as names show up. The best way to find them is IPO.COM.
How is one able to know when a BBY or HPQ will turn into a disaster? There is no way of initially knowing but simple things have to happen…break the 50 day…break the 200 day….stay below the 200 day…insiders keep selling at lows…sales go south year over year…same for earnings…losses show up…cfo resigns…blah blah blah.
HAVE A GREAT THANKSGIVING