kaltbaum premarket

Futures were down until the fake job’s number came out…nothing fabulous but a little better than expected though they revised last month down. The unemployment rate is now supposedly down to 7.7%.

 

But that’s the news…market has rallied about a half percent as I write this giving major indices the chance to move above this little handle that has traced out over the past 6 days. I suspect since it is December, the boys will take markets back up towards the highs of the year…that’s if we do not see a reversal today.

 

Obviously, you can see my lack of conviction. The simple problem is that there are a clear lack of good bases to buy off of. The service entered EXPE and EBAY but they just sit. I am not seeing much else out of growth land. There has been a move up in recent days in Financials but not much…just that they held important area of support. As I have always told you…no way market is going down if financials are holding up.

 

Answers to some of your questions:

 

I have no clue how to play an AAPL. I know it is a daytrader’s paradise. Yesterday, it was down $20 early and within an hour, rallied $35. The only thing I know is that is living below the 200 day where action tends to be wide and loose. AAPL looks like the low 500s showing strong defense but thinking high 500s showing strong resistance. They report 3rd week January…where we will get a good idea if the big money has been correct. It may be worrisome that the most asked question continues to be about AAPL indicating people are still holding.

 

GOLD (GLD) does not have to be played now. Only when it gets back above the 50 day does it matter. On a longer term basis, it really needs to hold 162…the 200 day average. The 50 day is currently at $168 and is starting to decline. Best guess…sits around 160-170 for now.

 

Names like GMCR,RIMM,NOK,FLSR,NFLX have re-emerged off their lows…making what looks like good bottoms. But…except for GMCR, all have poor numbers and all have massive resistance on every dime they move up. Typically, not for me…but we do have a good understanding what a technical bottom looks like…would just rather play the leaders.

 

Yes…foreign markets continue to outperform even though numbers are horrid. Many of these areas are in recession but most of these areas are now printing money. Germany is in new high ground after putting in a huge v-shape past 2 months…and Asia acting better off of stimulus announcements.

 

I have no recommendations on the bond market and income. I believe the fed has created a bond bubble where price and yield are distorted and where if it pops, bond funds will be smoked. I cannot even find a decent short-term corporate bond because yields are so low.

 

I am hoping some good looking strength shows up today that becomes playable.