KALTBAUM POLITICAL REPORT

BY GARY KALTBAUM – APRIL 29, 2019

As we head towards the election, just 553 days away, we now start our monthly political report. If need be, we will go semi-monthly or when need be.

There was a reason why the president was just in Wisconsin. In the 2016 election, the president won Wisconsin by only 22,748 votes out of a total of 2,787,820 votes…10 electoral votes to the president.

There is a reason why the administration is talking about Pennsylvania today and will visit the state many times going forward. There is a reason Biden is in Pennsylvania today. The president won Pennsylvania by only 43,892 votes out of a total of 5,896,774 votes…20 electoral votes to the president.

There is a reason why the president will be visiting the state of Michigan many times going forward. The president won Michigan by only 10,704 votes out of total 4,548,382 votes…16 electoral votes to the president.

The president already visits Florida numerous times as Mar-A-Lago is in the state. The president won Florida by only 112,911 votes out of total 9,122,861 votes… 29 electoral votes to the president.

Expect to be hearing a lot about these states going forward. These 4 states are a total of 75 electoral votes in which the president won by a hair. These 4 states could have easily gone the other way. With the president winning the electoral college 304-227, it doesn’t take Steven Hawking to figure out a combination of a couple of these states going the other way could have handed the presidency to Hillary Clinton. It was that close and we suspect will remain close. And to really show how close things were, these 4 states had a total of 22,355,837 votes. Out of the 22,355,837 votes, the president won by a measly 190,255 votes. We are talking some serious razor’s edge so again, expect a lot of talk about just these 4 states as we believe that again, they will dictate who will win in 2020.

IT WILL BE ALL ABOUT JOBS, THE ECONOMY AND MARKETS

We have always and continue to believe that most elections do come down to jobs, the economy and markets. Never underestimate the power of a job, the power of economic strength and the power of the wealth effect. 2008 speaks for itself. While we believe President Obama would have won anyway, it would have been interesting to see what would have happened if not for the bubble bursting for the economy and markets. Why do you think you have the president jawboning the fed on a daily basis to lower rates even from these low levels?” But we recognize there are always outlier events that will dictate. We also recognize that President Trump is no ordinary president. The man evokes serious emotion on both sides of the aisle and that could also be meaningful as we move forward.

But for now, if you are a Democrat, if the economy and markets do not crap out into the election, we would be worried. We do not believe the party “gets it!” (Just our opinion!) The election will more than likely be won by who gets the “leaners” on both sides as well as the independent vote. So…does the Democratic party think they will win the “leaners” and independents by proposing:

Much higher tax rates with some actually going 70% and above.
52% tax rate…the latest from Sanders though in the past, he has argued for a 100% tax above $1 million
Wealth tax…taxed every year
Vat tax
Gas tax
Carbon tax
Financial transactions tax
Capital gains tax on investments not sold…thank you Ron Wyden
Higher corporate tax
Higher payroll tax with no cap
Higher estate tax
Healthcare tax…gotta pay for the takeover of the health insurance business
Give a check to every newborn. (Someone will be taxed for this.)

We have seen other income tax rates passed around but we think this is a great representation of what has been proposed. But what about the other proposals.

Get rid of the electoral college.
Get rid of ICE.
Free college. (Hint: nothing is free.)
Cancel student debt.
Medicare for all. (Taking an estimated 180 million people off their own insurance.)
Guaranteed $1,000 monthly income.
Reparations.
Break up big banks.
Break up tech companies.
Executive action on gun control.
Spending $5 trillion to make the infrastructure more “climate friendly!”
Appoint 4 new Supreme Court justices.
Take “the wall” down.
The “GREEN NEW DEAL!” (We can spend a couple hours on this one.)

Again, these proposals are not made up. They are out there being proposed. We are just reporting. We are sure we left out a couple of other proposals but think we covered the crux of it. But we leave you with a last proposal. A proposal in where the candidate has been asked on several occasions on whether he wanted to rethink the proposal. Bernie Sanders has no problem with the Boston bomber and any other like him voting in our elections. We must tell you we thought this was being reported by The Onion but we were wrong. Again, we are not so sure that the “leaners” and independents would be thrilled with this. Bernie Sanders is trying to tell us that Al Capone, John Dillinger, John Gotti, David Berkowitz (Son of Sam), John Wayne Gacy, Timothy McVeigh, Ted Bundy, Jeffrey Dahmer, The Unabomber and Charles Manson could have voted. Maybe Sen. Sanders should ask the parents of the victims at Parkland if they would be happy with Nicholas Cruz being able to vote. Again…”leaners” and independents.

553 days is a long time. We first have to get through what is now about 20 Democratic candidates. We suspect that will be narrowed down soon enough as some are not even polling. Of course, money raised will dictate a lot. We have Biden and Sanders way ahead of the pack but that can change in a nanosecond. We also cannot ignore the Howard Schultz effect if he decides to run as an independent. Our bet is that he backs away but that’s just a guess. Enjoy the ride!