KALTBAUM ON THE MARKETS!

 

Regardless of the recent rally, we continue to believe we are in a late stage environment as so many characteristics of a late stage market are showing up. They include:

 

Duration…all bull moves have a shelf life…even with the printing of trillions. 

 

A huge increase in margin. Remember, margin is your best friend in a bull and frankly, is one of the main characteristics that show up during a bull. But when markets top, margin is the market’s enemy as margin gets sold down first and quickly…exacerbating the selling.

 

Tons of IPOs with the bar lowered recently as we are seeing a few too many names coming public that have no sales. Yes…we said no sales. The wonderful investment banks are very good at coming up with anything as long as the public continues to bite.

 

Tons of secondary offerings.

 

Massive insider selling with a clear lack of insider buying.

 

Bearish measurements remaining at multi-decade lows. Dare we say some of these measurements have to go all the way back to 1987 to find this lack of bearishness.

 

There is more. Just realize these are the characteristics that always show up near the end of bull runs and in advance of the tops. The issue is when as often, we are talking months in advance. The last time the market really topped back in 07, it took months of deterioration before the final top occurred. Keep in mind, while the market was deteriorating back in 07, the Dow went into new high ground…masking the trouble.

 

So far, we are seeing nothing more than rolling corrections as the major indices remain above the important moving averages. The most important point we need to make is that as the major indices have moved into new high ground, fewer and fewer stocks and sectors have accompanied the move. We count only about 60% of the market in good technical shape right now. At lower prices for the major indices, the number had reached into the 80s. This is a negative divergence.

 

The worries include:

 

A bunch of foreign markets are still acting like a horror show led by Russia, China, Brazil and emerging markets. Russia and Brazil are at new yearly lows. The bigger worry is the German Dax which is potentially putting in an ugly top. The Dax has been a great indicator in the past.

 

The price of copper and other “stuff” are breaking down badly. Not sure this is a positive.

 

The good news is that no major index has broken below the all-important 50 day average…but be forewarned…warning signs are out there. But as long as price stays above this all-important area, it is folly to get too bearish.

 

Lastly, we continue to believe Gold is tracing out an important low after…and this morning will open up above another resistance level.