Kaltbaum on markets and the Donald
Last week, we really believed that the market itself was showing characteristics that it was tired. But that by itself does not send a market down. We then saw the selling that got us to take notice and tell you we thought the market was about to top for now. THE MARKET HAS INDEED TOPPED FOR NOW. Sector by sector, tops are being put in. Yesterday, commodities was the latest to confirm they are done for now as they also rolled over. Commodities have been leading the market higher off recent lows. All this means is that recent highs will not be taken out any time soon and if support gets taken out, things will worsen.
We do not know what form this pullback/drop will take. We just know markets are into defense instead of offense right now. Of course, we will get Yellen lowering rates back to 0% eventually and then another round of money printing. Whether or not the market will be thrilled with this is another story. We also expect all the other maniacal central banks to get noisier if markets get in more trouble…but after the past few months of money printing and deeper into negative rates, not sure they have any more goodies in their bag.
On another subject, our prediction of Donald Trump winning the Republican nomination has come true. We continue to believe he will be the next President and everyone who thinks differently has it wrong. Our next prediction we believe is easy. It is a lock that either Rubio or Kasich will be selected as VP as Florida and Ohio are “HUGE!” We suspect it will be Rubio as he is young, good looking, Hispanic and popular in Florida. Going to be quite the next 6 months.
Gary thanks for keeping us up to speed on the markets. I have to disagree on the election, though. There are plenty of conservatives who would prefer to hold their nose and vote for Hillary, and I don’t believe there are many anti-Hillary voters who will get out to vote for Trump. Most people, I imagine, will choose to just stay home rather than choose between those two.
Our system is broken, but the only people who can change it have a vested interest in maintaining the status quo to line their own pockets. Sad, sad, sad.
I’d just about bet that we ready to go into a dcb ( dead cat bounce )
I look at my charts, and I see support all over the place.
My two indicators, are both signaling market rally, and when I get a double signal, that’s powerful..
As now, I am long uup, but I may dump it for a long trade in spy.