ECONOMIC STATS
-We have told anyone who would listen that the market was telegraphing slowdowns around the globe. We have told anyone who would listen that the U.S. would not be immune and that the crumbling of every economically sensitive area of the market meant something. Have you seen the chart of the TRANSPORTS lately?-
-This morning:-
-December’s New York Empire State manufacturing index fell 12.4 points to 10.9. Consensus was 21. This was the weakest level this year with weakness across the board. The all-important new orders actually fell 5.9 points to 14.5 while shipments fell 7 points to 21.-
-Yes…we know. This is just one number. Other recent stats have still shown strength. Just remember that we told you that going forward the norm will be revisions to the downside on most economic stats. You may be seeing it in real time now.-
-We are sure the Fed will be “this one and done” after they raise rates this week. We cannot believe the president is still jawboning them this morning to not raise rates. He is actually forcing them to raise rates to keep any shred of credibility. Maybe if he stayed out of the fray, they would not have. Is it possible they cave and not raise rates? Sure. They are after all an easy money institution. Will it help the market? After another 1,900 DOW points down in 8 days, it had better…especially as we head into the holidays.-