Newsletter

Words of wisdom on gapping up after gapping down after gapping up after….and just running in place. Tread lightly and tread carefully. Eventually and always, markets will come out of this one way or another. The past 5 weeks support still holding but internals remain crummy. And do not mention what happened to the Mets…

—-This morning, the ISM Manufacturing index for August came in at 49.1%. Estimates were for 51.3%. It is important to note that the  line between expansion and contraction is 50.0%. This reading ends a 35 month expansion and is the lowest since January of 2016.—- —-Our thoughts:—– —–We have believed we were in slowdown mode….

—-Back in the states. Looks like Florida dodged a huge one. We have personally been in many hurricanes. We were just north of Andrew but went down to help the next day. Parts of south Miami were destroyed. We think this could have done the same. That said, we cannot forget what is happening in…

As you know, we do not rationalize price. We do not rationalize constant tweeting that everything is wonderful when it is not. We do not rationalize “China wants a deal” uttered every day. We do not rationalize massive easing by central banks. We do not rationalize recession predictions and even some depression predictions. We do…

Bearish flags in the big 4 big cap indices. Bearish wedge in the SEMIS. Small, mid, foreign, transports still acting horrid. FINANCIALS no friends. REGIONALS much worse. Fewer and fewer working. More and more not. Do bearish patterns have to resolve bearishly? Normally, yes…but these days, a good tweet or a large rate cut could…

Gap to the upside on fake news yesterday and gap to the upside on the same fake news today. The White House never spoke to China. But we don care when we scan…we do not rationalize. Two gaps get a bunch of Friday back but major indices remain range-bound with the average stock much worse…

—-Greetings from Kotor, Montenegro…and may we say…spectacular!—- —–This is a fair assessment of the facts starting with July 31.—- —-On July 31, all was calm. The big 4 indices were near their all time highs. The fed was back in easing mode. Central banks around the globe were in serious easing mode. The internals of…