The Bull Case?
“THE BULL CASE”
September 2, 2015
By Gary Kaltbaum
@GaryKaltbaum
garyk.com
Fox News Business Contributor
Bazinga! As of this second, not feeling the bull case just yet but as we take off for Tokyo today, we just wanted to leave you with what potentially can turn into the bull case.
As we have stated, we do not think last Monday’s lows get taken out right now. We think it was A good low. We just do not think it is THE low. We believe it to be quite normal what has occurred the past few days…a gargantuan bounce up to relieve some of the vicious drop and a turn back down, retesting towards those lows. We suspect we will now see some back and forth.
The bull case is simple. The market must must must must must hold recent lows. This is not a big reach to say. Holding support levels give markets a chance to repair the damage that has been done. We cannot overemphasize the importance. What could cause markets to get defended and hold? Just the same things we have talked about for a while.
We expect the ECB (the lemmings) to continue to follow the maniacal Bernanke mantra…and that is more money printing.
We know the only goal of central banks is to keep asset prices not only afloat but also rising. That is potentially a lot of fire power.
Rate hike in the U.S? There’s no stinkin rate hike coming in the U.S. They haven’t raised rates in almost a decade. Why would they raise rates while world markets are being smoked?
China will just buy up their whole market, arrest you if you sell 100 shares and force you to watch Caddyshack 2 over and over again if you dare say a bad word about the market.
Market patterns look as bad as they can get. Not sure this is good news but one could think there is only room for improvement.
That’s it. Expect some more huge days up and down. Expect more “guess the gap” days. Expect daily wild swings. We continue to be worried that there is still massive margin and leverage out there and not sure all selling is out of the way. Let’s just hope recent lows hold. If they don’t, we then head into the 20s in which everyone then uses the term “bear market!” And if by chance, the lows break sooner rather than later, it will just tell you how weak markets are.
I remember you calling the top in fall 2007, saved me tons of $$. In 07 the talking heads were giving all the excuses to buy exactly like they are today. Once the talking heads to catch up with your logic and the “give up phase” begins, then maybe I can get excited about the market. Until then, Cash is King! Thanks Gary for keeping those who listen, out of harms way.
Excellent perspectives as usual.
Thanks Gary!
Gary,
Could you put the time of your article so we know where the market is at the time of your writing? Thanks.