A FEW THOUGHTS ON MARKET

——Futures are 1,000 DOW points or so to the upside. Many are looking and coming up with reasons why. But during the night, they were also down 700 at one time. We were up and saw no news that changed things. The only occurrence that changed things was price. European futures turned up and our market followed. So read carefully: when anyone tells anyone why we are opening nicely up today, there is only one answer…—–

—–JUST THIS WEEK, THE RUSSELL 2000 IS DOWN 22%, THE DOW IS DOWN 18%, THE S&P IS DOWN 16%, THE NASDAQ IS DOWN 16%, THE TRANSPORTS ARE DOWN 19%, REGIONAL BANKS ARE DOWN 23%, THE BIG FINANCIALS ARE DOWN 20%…AND SO ON. TO REPEAT…JUST THIS WEEK.—–

—-Eventually, even what is now considered a crash, bounce…and those bounces are usually strong and those bounces are usually pains in the arses as they occur on a gap to the upside. —–

——When someone tries to give a reason why Carnival Cruise Lines is up over 20% this morning in the wake of stopping cruises, it is because it is down 45% JUST THIS WEEK . United Airlines is up 8% this morning but is down 28% JUST THIS WEEK. Disney, who is closing all their theme parks for a bit, is up 7% this morning. How can that be? It is because it was down 20% JUST THIS WEEK. So again, while you hear many telling you why and that everything is a value. Just remember, everything has been whooped this week and that is after everything was already way down before this week. ——

—–Maybe the low is in…but maybe it isn’t. WE HAVE NO CLUE. We have very little edge on whether this market opens up and keeps going up but we will tell you a decent amount of sentiment indicators were hitting record, all-time bearishness in the past couple of days. That probably helps. Again, we have very little edge right here because it is all a guessing game right here. We are saying this and we are ones that got the big picture correctly over the past few weeks since the top. We are just happy markets are having a nice up open because we know how much pain financially and emotionally this can put on people. We are rooting for higher prices and bull markets at all times. —–

—–THE FED. The fed injecting $1.5 trillion into the system yesterday and today. You know what we think of them. They are the ones causing the severe dislocations. Leave no doubt why on every drop, we get easier and easier money but all they have created and enabled through the years is massive debt, massive leverage, massive distortions of price and yield and booms that ultimately always bust. ——

—–Lastly,  longer-term, we have 100 or so years of history. Let’s hope history repeats itself again. If it does, all-time highs will be an eventuality.——