10/19/2012: GARY ON NATIONALLY SYNDICATED INVESTORS EDGE RADIO BROADCAST
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https://archives.warpradio.com/btr/InvestorsEdge/101918.mp3
JUST LETTING YOU KNOW
In past week I told you specifically that I went low beta. And specifically, what does that mean? It’s getting away from the more volatile…growth names in the market.
Why?
They weren’t working.
And lower beta was.
I recently told you that the Nasdaq was really starting to underperform and as I mentioned yesterday on my radio show, the Nasdaq leads markets up or down and when there is a stark divergence that stands out in the Nasdaq, you have to wake up.
In recent days, the Dow and S&P pulled back to their 50-day moving averages, a normal occurrence – and they rallied for 3 days off of it.
The Nasdaq and Nasdaq-100 rallied into it and today failed miserably. And this is something that has to be watched. That’s the only way I can put it. We need to be a little more low beta.
That’s all.
What does this turn into, I don’t know. But let me go into a few other things:
- For starters, the Nasdaq has had three successive lower highs and then today on big, big volume.
- The areas that were acting best, the Dow and the S&P, rallied up to the high now three times…and failed there.
- We’re starting to see some blow-ups. And I’ve read Stan Weinstein for years. He’s always had this line: “It’s not a healthy market if stocks are blowing up” – especially when you get important stocks blowing up and we’ve had a few of those.
So I would just keep my eyes on the lookout kids. The Financials have been acting well. The Housing has been acting well. On a relative basis the Commodities have come off their lows.
I can tell you the Financials got hit today.
The Commodities pulled in pretty decently today.
Housing, thought is still mostly up.
But for me, the eyesore…the sore thumb…the chink in the armor – watching this Nasdaq getting itself in trouble. In one glance, when you have a chance, you will see a top at 3196. The next top on a reversal day was 3171. The next top was 3112. And now we broke another new relative low, which was 3037 as we finished 3005 today…and on some pretty darn big volume. You will notice that when you rallied up here, you rallied up in to the 50-day and got slammed down off of it.
And the same goes for the Nasdaq-100.
Must be watched.
The Nasdaq has been the leading index influencing most of the market, both up and down, I think, since the early-90s, as best as I can recollect.
What does this lead to, I have no idea.
How long does it go, I have no idea.
What are we…6% downside from the high? Not the end of the world.
But at end of today, they were selling into it.
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Gary Kaltbaum owns Kaltbaum Capital Management, LLC (“KCM”), an investment adviser registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The opinions expressed herein are those of Mr. Kaltbaum and may not reflect those of KCM. The information offered in this publication is general information that does not take into account the individual circumstances, financial situation or individual needs of an investor. The information herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we cannot assure its accuracy or completeness. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. Any reference to past performance is not to be implied or construed as a guarantee of future results.