08/03/2012: GARY ON NATIONALLY SYNDICATED INVESTORS EDGE RADIO BROADCAST
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https://archives.warpradio.com/btr/InvestorsEdge/080318.mp3
JUST LETTING YOU KNOW
Another wicked week on the market.
The big news today was that there was an employment number.
We’ve got to separate reality here at Investors Edge. We’ve got to deal with reality because what you’re reading and what you’re hearing is a lot of B.S.
Seriously.
Some of the headlines I have heard recently and some of the things I’ve seen on the tube recently – I think that just make it up as they go along. Today, I watched somebody say that the market was up big today because of the employment number.
What? Huh?
Ladies and gentlemen, before you start listening to people who just make it up as they go along, what you need to know was that the futures market, before even 8:30am when the employment number came out, was up a good 125 to 150. So it was already up big because the Euro was soaring after some of the things that were announced yesterday got flip-flopped today…and that’s it.
Because I got news for you…the employment number stunk. It’s fake. It’s made up. Supposedly 160,000 jobs were created, but unemployment rate goes up. Ladies and gentlemen, get with it. They’re full of it.
For the past four years, they have been taking millions of people off the supposed list of people looking for jobs. As you take those people off, the unemployment rate goes down without anything happening. Every month I email the Labor Department and ask them to send me the list of people that have left the workforce. I’ve get to get an answer because there isn’t any list.
They make it up!
Anyway…the market today was up simply because yesterday, the President of the European Central bank who all but promised last week to make some moves this week to do what the Fed has done. I completely disagree with that because it’s conjuring up money to buy bonds in order to lower interest rates…whatever.
Well, yesterday he said there’s fierce German opposition, so the market tanked yesterday.
Before the market opened today, guess what?
It was announced that a lot people in Angela Merkel’s (Chancellor of Germany) circle believe that it is sound policy and that they are going to go along with it. And boom, the futures shot up. That’s what happened. The Euro was really strong. The Dollar sunk big time. When that occurs, there are certain areas of the market that roll.
For months I’ve told you to stay away from commodities and the reason why was that the Euro kept dropping and the Dollar kept soaring. On top of that, I told you to be careful of any Dollar plays. Strong Dollars hurt our multinationals here. And I used the poster child of IBM.
IBM was sinking as the Dollar was rising.
IBM is now rallying as the Dollar is weakening.
That is why you’re seeing the market doing a little bit better. And as I’ve told in you recent days, the oils have a bid and some of the other commodities have a little bit of a better bid. Oils are the best commodity, but even the lowly steels were coming off the lows.
And the Semis have done the same.
So when the worst areas come off the lows, the market comes off the lows.
That’s all. The market had nothing to do with the unemployment figures today. Do not listen to these people.
The Market
It’s going to continue to be not easy. You’re getting gaps to the upside and gaps to the downside. When we gap up, three days later we give it all back. You gap down and three days later, you’re back up.
Even with 217 points today, the market finished basically flat this week.
The short sellers got emboldened yesterday. The woke this morning vomiting.
And that’s how the market goes right now.
Just keep in mind, they’re not going to make it easy.
But right now, all the worst areas have come up off their lows. That’s all the Commodities, Semiconductors, the Commodity countries, the Oils…all these worst areas have come up—helping the market.
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Gary Kaltbaum owns Kaltbaum Capital Management, LLC (“KCM”), an investment adviser registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The opinions expressed herein are those of Mr. Kaltbaum and may not reflect those of KCM. The information offered in this publication is general information that does not take into account the individual circumstances, financial situation or individual needs of an investor. The information herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we cannot assure its accuracy or completeness. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. Any reference to past performance is not to be implied or construed as a guarantee of future results.