07/19/2012: GARY ON NATIONALLY SYNDICATED INVESTORS EDGE RADIO BROADCAST
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https://archives.warpradio.com/btr/InvestorsEdge/071918.mp3
JUST LETTING YOU KNOW
I get so many emails. I don’t watch anybody. I don’t ready anybody. But what’s sent to me and what I do see because I’m on the web, is that a bunch of people are talking “depression.”
There are people calling for crashes in the market. There’s out about depression and crashes. And about the end of Europe.
Now it’s very important that you recognize that I tell you on my radio show, that if they don’t stop, the market’s going to stop them because of debt.
But there’s no way of predicting depressions and recessions. I do think they’ll be a day of reckoning.
In 2006 when I was all over the place calling for a housing and credit bubble, I didn’t know when it was going to pop. Not a clue. I think there’s a government debt bubble. Not just in the U.S. but in many places. I don’t know when that’s going to pop. I have a thought process that it will.
Just be careful about dire warnings. We’re not in a depression. By the numbers, we’re not in a recession. I think we have an anemic economy built on some stilts and I wonder what happens if the Fed ever goes to normalcy.
And, of course, I worry about when we’re going to pay down that debt.
But if you read some of that stuff, you’d wouldn’t even be looking at the market. You’d be taking you money and running if you read some of that stuff.
You wouldn’t believe what some of them are saying…4,000…5,000 on the Dow…the end of the dollars a we know it. And I could go on and on.
The bottom line is, tech which was in a bearish market lit up on what I consider to be poor earnings for a lot of names. But sometimes when things are going down, they get washed out. When the bad news finally comes out, they start rallying.
That’s what’s happening here.
On top of that, some of the worst, down and out areas are no longer going down and are actually rallying.
20 some odd percent of the S&P are the energies. Guess what energy stocks are doing now because oil prices are now starting to kick into gear on the upside. Now eventually that’s not good. In fact, I think oil went from 90 to 92.60 today on a barrel. And that helps the market.
The Semiconductors…dead in the water…basically they had crashed. And now in the past 2 days, they’re up 7%, which helps the Nasdaq.
Is this just a reaction that’s going to last a few days and then turn back down.
Could be. Because I’ve got news for you. The earnings stink.
But you never know. And you never know what the market is potentially forecasting. The only thing I do know is that in the past couple days and today, the market got a bid.
So we want to look for leadership. Wait for earnings to come out. See the reaction. And go from there.
I do not think it’s going to be easy. I think the market’s a pain the rear end.
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Gary Kaltbaum owns Kaltbaum Capital Management, LLC (“KCM”), an investment adviser registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The opinions expressed herein are those of Mr. Kaltbaum and may not reflect those of KCM. The information offered in this publication is general information that does not take into account the individual circumstances, financial situation or individual needs of an investor. The information herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we cannot assure its accuracy or completeness. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. Any reference to past performance is not to be implied or construed as a guarantee of future results.