SOUNDING OFF ON HARSHING THE BUZZ

We find it absolutely amazing that the big indices, while under pressure, have not broken down in a meaningful fashion. So far, they pretty much refuse a significant correction. Looking at the chart of oil prices, one could have thought we were already down in the mid-teens if not worse. (Hope this doesn’t jinx!) That said, there are quite a few areas that remain in bad shape, bear markets, bearish trends. That said and not to harsh your buzz, let us not ignore a few things bubbling under the surface of all the news out of the Middle East.

Private credit. You know, the loans that get marked with a price of belief and not a market price. We are now seeing some serious markdowns and quite a few redemptions. We are also seeing the limiting of redemptions by a few. This is the type of crap that can certainly feed on itself as the word “confidence” is an intangible that matters big time to those funding all this. Pay attention to this. Have you seen what the stocks of some of those names in private equity, mergers and all that have done? Symbols OWL, BX, BLK, APO, KKR, TPG, ARES…Squash!

Yields are heading north again. This is obviously occurring to accommodate the higher cost of everything, cost of war, debt, deficits and a stronger dollar because of what is going on in the Middle East. The 1-2 punch of higher oil and yields not a good thing.

The job market. The job market remains weak. Have you seen the charts of ADP and Paychex? We suspect hiring will not be the first thing on corporate America’s mind while at war.

Speaking of the job market, that last GDP report gives pause. We gather this will also get no help while we are in the midst of war.

And oh yeah, partial shutdown by the miscreants in DC. Telling flyers to be at the airport 4 hours early…yeah, that’s the ticket! Just what do they do for a living in DC?

Keeping hope alive! Let’s get the job done and get the hell out of there.