CAUSE AND EFFECT

Every now and then, the cause and effect is so stark, it must be paid attention to and in a big way.

Yesterday, at 10:30 AM, oil prices topped out for the day. Yesterday at 10:30 AM, the market bottomed for the day. Not sure we need to go any further. Cause and effect!

But this morning, Secretary Hegseth came out and pretty much stated everything’s great. Oil prices dropped. Futures ramped. Cause and effect! Of course, the news is fluid. Of course, the news is ever-changing so don’t blink! We hope he is right. For now…WATCH OIL PRICES!

We are noticing two days in a row opening with a big yonking to the downside but defended big time by the end of the day. Institutions certainly at the ready. The defense is certainly notable but certainly does not mean markets are fixed and getting going. But a reminder, broad markets were much better than the indices before this week, amazingly led by the transports. Yes…the transports. Not sure how long that lasts. For a change, opening higher this morning. Not blinking!

In addition to hopefully software putting in some sort of a good low, we have mentioned crypto was doing the same as believe it or not, they have been moving hand-in-hand since October. Crypto will open up above its first range off the low this morning and if holds, will be a first stairstep off the lows. Keep in mind, these are recovery moves and are certainly not in big bull mode or just bull mode but one has to start somewhere.

Praying for our men and women in uniform and mourning those who have passed. We cannot do enough for these people that put their lives on the line for us. We still remember playing paintball with our kids years ago and got hit in the side and had a big welt. Whined like a little baby. These soldiers are ducking real bullets and dodging bombs and missiles. We must never forget that.