THE 2ND HALF?

As we move into the 2nd half of the year, things we do not want you to forget…ever forget:

Our words, our motto…”YOU WILL GET NO HELP FROM WALL STREET IN BEAR MARKETS” about as loud and clear as we have ever seen.

Analysts lowering their targets. In many cases, lowering their targets AFTER a stock has dropped 50%, with some down 75%+. We are not making this up.

CRYPTO geniuses continue to smile at you and tell you everything is ok. Yes…it is normal when just about all the coins are down 90%, with many at 0. It is normal that so many cons (almost 20,000) tried for fake riches by coming out with coins. Yes…only 20,000. You shouldn’t worry because the head of MICROSTRATEGY (MSTR) says to think long term while his stock has gone from $1315 to $167. Where the hell is the board of directors?

Noticing headline this weekend “Wall Street banks name their top global stocks for the second half!” Do not…do not go check what their top stocks were for the first half.

A certain fund manager whose most famous fund has gone from $160 to $41 (and that is off the lows) continues to tell you not to worry and that stocks in the fund will go up 10-fold. Yes, this person has the nerve to say these things. 75% isn’t good enough for someone to be out of the headlines?

We do not write this up to take on anyone in the industry. We know how tough this business is. We just have to mention because YOU WILL GET NO HELP FROM WALL STREET IN BEAR MARKETS and they have proved it again. We could give you many more examples. We think you get our point. WATCH PRICE. PRICE DOES NOT CARE WHAT PEOPLE THINK. PRICE DOES NOT CARE ABOUT OPINION.  PRICE IS REALITY. PRICE IS WHAT YOU GET PAID ON OR HOW MUCH MONEY YOU LOSE. PRICE IS THE DECISIONS OF THE BIG MONEY INSTITUTIONS AND THEIR MOVES. PRICE IS THE VALUE OF AN ASSET AT ANY POINT IN TIME. Of course, we have learned again what matters in this market. The following of their moves and the patterns they make will give an edge…a big edge in bear markets. We remain stunned every time we see someone who we know is down 50%+ on their stocks telling you “do not to worry, things are ok, it will come back.” They have not studied the facts of bear markets and that past leaders will drop 70%+ with many never coming back. How do we know? We did our homework. We did our own studies of people who have done those studies and the numbers are true. This fact has again shown itself with names like NFLX, SHOP, PTON, PYPL, SQ and the hundreds of other names that have been blasted.

Many will continue to tell you where the market will be at the end of the year. WE HAVE NO CLUE HOW THE MARKET FINISHES THIS YEAR. We do not need to know. WE JUST NEED TO KNOW THE MAIN TRENDS AND STAY IN LINE. We can tell you during this bear, we have spent hundreds of hours studying printed out bear market charts and charts from bear markets of decades ago on the software we use. This one has been classic as the emotions of fear and greed play out. This includes the climax run bubbles in MARIJUANA, 3D, MEME STOCKS, HUNKS OF JUNK and so many others. When we told you anything that loses money would get crushed, we meant it. They have been crushed. When we told you all froth and speculative crap would be crushed, we meant it. When we told you much of the market was a central bank-induced bubble, probably the biggest ever, we meant it. It is not stunning but also stunning that so many are down so much with so many losing so much. The rules have worked. Our rules have worked.

As we walk into the 2nd half, these themes remain.

OILS and COMMODITIES have topped in recent weeks with many topped badly. We saw this coming a few weeks ago as one name, two names, three names started breaking down. As usual, the rest followed.

YIELDS have put in a pretty decent top. With COMMODITIES, this is telling us for now, inflation has peaked. FOR NOW!  We started on these thoughts a few weeks ago and now have gained teeth. The worry is simple. This is all telegraphing recession, the same recession we predicted months ago. We just felt the inflation (we predicted way in advance) with the spent up consumer would do the trick. We are now seeing savings rates crash, credit card usage skyrocket and the wealth effect evaporate $trillions. Yet not until recent were the many on Wall Street worried about the economy. Last week, we heard from DC and the many that we would avert but now the Atlanta fed lowered the quarter again…to -2.1% gdp from -1% gdp. Many were hoping lower yields and lower commodities would be good for markets…so far…nah. Again…recession.

We worry about earnings guidance. This is another major aspect of Wall Street we watch. The real big, gargantuan worry started with TARGET (TGT) when they lowered numbers markedly and then lowered again weeks later…and this is a well run retailer. If this company missed by miles…not hard to extrapolate. MICRON (MU) just stuck a fork in the SEMIS and SEMIS spending as they lowered numbers big time. The equipment makers moved into new low ground again on the news.

And the very limited areas of strength are: DRUGS seem to be relatively strong. MANAGED CARE relatively strong as a HUM breaks out to highs BUT ON NO VOLUME. UNH in the DOW v-shaped up. Seems medicare payments helped. SOFT DRINKS look ok. UTILITIES coming on because of the lower rates. A few so-called “recession resistant” names FOOD and HOUSEHOLD PRODUCTS are stronger. But that’s it. Notice…these are all very DEFENSIVE areas. The one area we have harped on as the only area that seems to be at least trying to bottom is the CHINA ADRs. So far, so good. But one has to worry about that government every day. Talk about control freaks! We think they are better because they were so much worse and so much self-inflicted from their own government.

EVERYTHING ELSE IS IN DIFFERING LEVELS OF THE BEAR AND OVERALL, WE HAVE SEEN NO CHARACTERISTICS OF A BEAR MARKET BOTTOM. Yes…sentiment is bearish but that is because so many have lost so much. Yes, sentiment being bearish is good news but then we see GAMESTOP bought up every time market gets a bid. Is that bearish sentiment? Too many are using sentiment to call bottoms. Price calls bottoms. Sentiment is secondary and quite lagging. If we had a buck for every person calling a bottom because of sentiment being bearish…

The 2nd half? We have no clue. We just know the main trend (except for the few mentioned) continues be down and now we head into quite the quite earnings season. We remain worried that this is a lot more than garden variety as the printing of $30 trillion worldwide with massive amounts of debt created the biggest asset bubble in history. There is usually only one outcome of massive bubbles. You are already seeing it in many speculative areas of the market. The rest?