ONE MORE OBSERVATION AND IT IS A BULLISH OBSERVATION!
When you have a chance, take a gander at the transports. Actually setting up pretty well to break out of range…which would be above 8172. Do keep in mind that is not near the all time high of 9310 from November 2014. We gather recent lower oil prices have helped as airlines better and Fedex (FDX) reacted well to earnings.
Transports are near a massive top,,, yup.
Butt…., it is also massive resistance.
If IYT(s) break out, upside, they will have to do it along with help from the major indexes.
The major indexes are 50 day -.
Take a look at the dollar ( uup ):
It is, trend down, falling toward the 50 day,If the dollar falls from extended to more extended, then yup, the market will rally, and with it the transports,, ,,,, butt, right into massive resistance !
The dollar:
If the dollar rallies, the fed won’t hike but the dollar rally will kill a stock market rally.. killing a transports rally
If the dollar falls, the fed will hike, and the market will look across the planet for carry trade money there won’t be any, and that will kill a stock market rally, … killing a transports rally..
The planet is saying … no !, to more fake, carry trade cash. ( ya we’ll see..)
Loss of the carry trade, says no market rally.
No market rally says no transports rally.
Butt, the fed won’t let the market fall, so likely we will get no market pull back.
The long, and short, I’d bet the market will hold right about here, not able to rally, not able to pull back.
The transports standing alone:
They will react to the oils, and the oils are ready to dead cat bounce.
That bounce in the oils will keep the IYT(s) from breaking out, for a run.
Were I to place a bet on this market, my bet would be a long trade in crude oil, not an investment in the transports.