We are writing this early so pre-market can change but futures down a wee bit off of weak Europe…but yesterday was NASDAQ/NDX/TECH/SOFTWARE/INTERNET/BETA.
We have been telling you and pondering whether we could get a real rip to the upside if markets broke out of range…and at least in beta, we are getting it. AMAZON (AMZN) seems to have an announcement every day of a new industry they are getting into. Do I hear growing marijuana yet? Gather this move slows down…and settles down for higher prices. Maybe.
cCRM not helping cause this morning down $5 but probably finishes up $10. (sarcasm)
PRE MARKET AND WEED!
Short-term word to the wise. Markets do not go straight up. A pullback at any time would be normal as normal could be. Frankly, we would not mind one as it is easiest to isolate strength on pullbacks.
Marijuana…we do not smoke any but we are sure getting questions about a few names…CRON, CGC, TLRY come to mind. All we can tell you is that valuations are a joke…and we mean a joke but price is what someone is willing to pay. TLRY up $10 this morning giving it a double in 8 trading days. Interesting how people are interested after a double. All we know is the company has a $5 billion market cap with $25 million of sales and nothing but losses. But investments have been coming into the industry notably STZ recently. Just know these names have had sharp moves in short order. Do we have to tell you risk has picked up? We do not own any and are quite jealous we don’t.
Leader ROKU down on what else? Amazon competition. DKS also down.
SCVL gapping up.
PRE MARKET AND THE YIELD CURVE
Aug ’09: 2.43%
Aug ’10: 2.10%
Aug ’11: 2.08%
Aug ’12: 1.37%
Aug ’13: 2.34%
Aug ’14: 1.86%
Aug ’15: 1.50%
Aug ’16: 0.78%
Aug’ 17: 0.83%
Today: 0.18% (flattest since Aug 2007)-
Last week, we appeared on the tube as well as the radio show saying something we do not usually say. Those that have followed us for years know we interpret price and don’t predict price. We always laugh when someone tries to tell us where things will be a year from today. We are always amazed at ridiculous price targets. You do remember Dow 100,000 predictions back in 99? How about $1 million for bitcoin?
We simply stated that if we could get past September, we think the market could sizzle to the upside. Yes, we said sizzle. But was this predicting or was this interpreting what we have seen throughout history? We say the latter.
Our studies of markets going back to day 1 show time and time again, when markets break out of range to the upside towards the end of the year, markets usually experience one heck of an end of year. As we head into September, markets may be even jumping the gun as most major indices are now edging above previous highs off of a 7 month range that started with the old high from January 29 of this year.
The other part of this equation is that markets are at new highs with just about all media news being bad. We never thought that even the media could report and parade people on the air to downplay some darn good economic numbers, some darn good unemployment numbers, some darn good business confidence numbers, some darn good earnings numbers as well as many other stats that are just darn good. And let’s not forget how well markets have done. It’s almost like they are hoping for things to turn down. Frankly, we couldn’t care less why. We only care about price and right now, price is ignoring “bad news” of tariffs, impeachment, investigations and all that crap. As we have always told you…it is not the news, it is how things react to the news and right now, markets are in gear with most major indices breaking out of range. On top of that, all the worst areas we have told you to avoid like emerging markets…are finally in bounce mode. We would still avoid as U.S. markets are much stronger but if the worst stop going down, it is good news.
Lastly, we are sickened by some of the reactions to the death of John McCain. We are sure you know what we are talking about. We have only one thought about this man. He is a hero of epic proportions. Take five minutes of your time to read what this man went through. We have experienced people come apart at the seams when stuck in an elevator for five minutes.
Futures up decently after a pullback yesterday. This in spite of news from CHINA/U.S. trade talks getting nothing done.
Still watching the tight action in the NASDAQ/NDX. A break to the upside could lead to some fireworks as a lot of names setting up. We are in hopes it takes a couple more weeks as we like longer trading ranges but already seeing some things edge out of range.
ADSK looks to be a breakaway gap this morning on some acceleration in numbers.
SPLK with a nice gap also but we do not like earnings that were down.