500 Dow points aint what it used to be. Only about 2% now. We were waaaaay overdue where a pullback could happen any time…but no way of knowing price and duration. You just look to see what other cards come out of the deck, especially during earnings season. Just remember, when markets top, they do not top in a day or a week. They top over time so don’t jump the gun.
What we have been seeing has been a few areas getting in some trouble. We have told you about utilities and reits off of higher rates…and recently, they have been coming after housing.
But now we are possibly seeing a decent top, for now, in energy. Time will tell. We can add a few SEMI-names that act poorly though the group overall looks fine.
The big story this morning has been the rocket ship BOEING (BA)…up a whopping $20 on accelerating numbers. That’s about 150 DOW points this morning…rates a big wow.
Other gappers are AVGO, EA, SFLY, KNX and a few lessers. On the downside are ALGN, CACC, JNPR, SYK.
After yesterday, futures up nicely as China strong again overnight.
Just a head’s up after the close today are FB, EBAY, MSFT, PYPL, QCOM, X, VRTX. Tomorrow morning are BABA, MA, UPS and then a monster after the close in AAPL, AMZN, GOOGL…those 3 will indeed change the playing field in the QQQ. Also, AMGN, V with Friday having 3 DOW names in XOM, CVX, MRK.
Markets do go down every now and then. I know that’s anathema (big word) to many but markets do go down. Markets do not necessarily need a reason. It can just be demand finally gets pooped out while supply picks up. What a concept! It can be that the S&P is up this year enough for a whole year. It can be the fact since the election, the market is up the equivalent of 6-7 years. It can be that sentiment has been and continues to be off-the-charts too bullish. It can be that the Dow is up 8,000 points since the election. Of course, it can also be a tick up in interest rates and higher commodity prices off the weaker dollar.
Choose any one or don’t choose at all. Just pay attention to price. And price in the shorter term, has been stretched and extended as far as we have seen in ages. A pullback would be as normal as CNN reporting on Russia. Maybe, possibly, could be a (God forbid) pullback started yesterday. And now we get an ugly open this morning. The horror of it all.
We were due. We are due. We are overdue.
A few notes:
Interest rate-sensitive stuff continues to weaken…Utilities, Reits and now Housing. This off of higher rates.
The A/D had weakened versus price last week…meaning fewer things were working as price went higher.
The VIX was moving higher as the market was moving higher. And now, the VIX has broken out off the lows.
We said on tv yesterday we would not be surprised if we saw up to a 2500 point during the year…and that’s just a guess as we would rather interpret direction than predict price. After all, that is not even 10%. We are not sure if we are starting one now. This could just be a short-term, few percent blip! Just know things are weakening here and need to be watched closely. Again, there does not have to be a reason. The world does not have to be ending.
A few thousand more earnings reports are set to come out. Pay attention.
Markets beyond overbought. Markets beyond stretched and extended. Retail investors plowing in at numbers haven’t ever seen. Valuations upper end of historical levels. Sentiment off the charts bullish. The good news is that getting this overbought tells you how strong things have been. We just worry about climactic action as it is great while it goes up but very painful when it goes down. Not sure we are climactic just yet…
FUTURES ARE UP! DUH!
Watch INTEL (INTC) as it gaps open on a base on base breakaway gap. SEMIS have been under pressure as LRCX opens up $9 yesterday and finishes down $10.
Other than that, should be at 30,000 by late next week. (SARCASM) I think. More on the weekend report.