Happy almost new year.
Our recent oil/energy/commodity theme continues this morning as the dollar continues to slump, lifting commodities. Price of oil, copper, steel and all that crap continue higher. Copper is up 16 days in a row. Recent breakouts in SCCO, RIO, BHP, SCHN, STLD and others working. Time to look for anticipated but not guaranteed pullbacks.
We shall leave it at that. Happy new year. If you are drinking New Year’s eve…DO NOT DRIVE.
Futures up decently this morning as trade remains quiet into new year. Still…nothing that resembles even a 2% drop.
Bitcoin getting hit today. Some of those “questionable” companies that changed their names in the midst of going right back where they came from. We are in hopes you were not the last ones in on these names that were propped up on nothing.
A bunch of OILS pulled back yesterday, some actually stayed up. Keep on screen as we think the move is real. We hope there is some more time and price on pulling in.
FINANCIALS resting…nothing wrong with that.
RETAIL remains strong…they were dead for so long but now leading.
SEMIS remain dormant…with just a few names above 50 day. All this is at this time is an intermediate-term correction, nothing more. Will let you know if it worsens.
Looks like it will remain quiet rest of week.
As stated, ENERGY/OILS for real but only on some pulling back here. Many names extended from the past week’s move.
For the first time in a while, GOLD STOCKS are better. They have been dormant. We shall see if they get going. Supposedly, January a good month for them.
We remain wary of most SEMICONDUCTOR names. Most trading below resistance and the 50 day average.
FINANCIALS pulling back/resting. Look fine.
RETAIL en fuego. Wow…many with crappy numbers but market thinks things improving. Recent gaps to the upside have worked in LULU, KORS and now TIF. We had our doubts.
ENERGY/OILS on the move again today as ENERGY/OIL prices spike higher. Just a little warning that some names have rallied up almost 10% in past week of trading days. Better to have some pulling in. Same goes for many commodity names as COPPER )(JJC) has made a sharp move into new highs.
And RETAIL still going. Strong holiday numbers helping.
Felt like no one on the road and no one in my building today. Usually take me 45 minutes+ to drive 14 highway miles on I-4 but today, no traffic at all.
There is stuff going on though not a ton.
CRYPTO stocks strong. Get this one:
INDIA GLOBALIZATION CAPITAL (IGC) announces: ” Looking to leverage existing assets to develop methods to utilize blockchain!” The stock closed at 66 cents…now $1.52. So…all the rest of the questionable crypto crap up…RIOT up $10, LFIN up 12%…of course, they were all crushed last week. PICK YOUR POISON.
The other big news:
“AAPL shares are trading lower by 2.2% following a Bloomberg report on reduced iPhone X shipment forecasts by analysts. The article cites an analyst from China indicating that shipments may be 10 mln units lower than previously estimated !”
That is hurting QQQ as well as AAPL suppliers. Other analysts out defending saying there will eventually be sales…or something like that. S&P futures down 2/10%. QQQ down 6/10%.
OIL PRICES (now a must watch with oil stocks) small green this morning.
We are always asked why we do not predict what happens in the next year. After all, everyone else on Wall Street seems to have an opinion on what 2018 will look like. One man said bitcoin is going to $100,000. Hey, that may be next week. We just think it is a fruitless endeavor. There are too many variables during a year. Central banks, governments, Trump, inflation, deflation, interest rate spikes, terrorism and that’s for starters. There is only one thing in our mind about 2018 and that is a normal 10% correction of 2500 Dow points should be in the cards. That means NASDAQ-types probably down 15%. We say this based on three things that stick out…COMPLACENCY THAT IS OFF THE CHARTS COMBINED WITH RECORD LEVERAGE (MARGIN) COMBINED WITH TIME. The time factor is that we have not had a decent correction in eons. That said, we really do not predict and we really do not like to predict. We will only act based on the evidence at hand. As of this second, there is no way a correction of that magnitude is in the cards. That’s because there are too many Dow stocks in uptrends, financials in good shape and major indices trading above all moving averages. Until that dynamic changes, all thoughts on 2018 are just that.
We hope you are having a happy holiday. As we enter the last week of the year, a few things are now sticking out:
Past leading group SEMICONDUCTORS remain relatively weak but you can see they are starting to carve out support. We think there is more time and price before they can get going again.
OILS are all over our screens. A few breaking into nerw highs with many breaking above mid-range levels. We think this is for real but as always, will let them decide.
The same goes for a bunch of COMMODITY names in steel, copper, aluminum and all that crap that if you dropped on your toes, they would hurt.
FINANCIALS remain strong but extended and would love to see some pulling in.
We really do not have much to say on the indices as they refuse to pull back. Just keep in mind, sentiment is off the charts too bullish and too complacent but so far, it has affected very little.
