It feels like the DOW can run some here but so far, it is without the transports, without some of the previous mega-cap tech/internet as well as the lagging stuff.

But the DOW acts well. Just letting you know in the past 5 days, the DOW is up 378 points with Boeing (BA) about 200 DOW points. At the same time, the S&P is flat, the NASDAQ is down 1%, the TRANSPORTS are down about 2.5%. Just reporting some divergences but the DOW continues to win the day. 22,000 up next?

We think the NASDAQ/NDX and all that stuff is still working off of the ugly reversal/selling from this past Thursday. We suspect there is more time and price. Notice the selling today off of another mystery Monday gap to the upside. It does not help the NDX that AMAZON and GOOGLE reacted poorly to earnings. You can see what happens in the near term to over-owned stuff that gets poor reactions to the number. Also, Facebook got the rare “sell” from an analyst this morning. FACEBOOK had a good reaction to the number but is extended in the near term. TESLA also acts poorly as it runs into the 50 day but reports this week. Lastly, watch the SOX 50 day at 1084. The SOX is trading more wide and loose in recent weeks than it has in the past year. Also…chance for an icky, yes icky double top in the SOX.  Bad day so far for beta. Stay tuned.

 

 

In no particular order:

Watching gold stocks for first time in a while. 2 names sticking out as strength are low priced IAG and higher priced RGLD. A move above $23.06 would be important. Other commodity names like BHP and RIO still act well as the price of copper (JJC) broke out.

OIL prices doing better but oil stocks not so much as they reversed Friday to the downside. Not really much to think about yet.

Quite the interesting reversal for NASDAQ/NDX Thursday. This is to be watched. We suspect at the very least, a near term high…but so far, just near term. Can’t go further than that. Also watching for the potential for a big double top in the semis (SOX). Watching 1083…the 50 day average.

Amazingly, still finding about 40% of the market in bad shape. Not normal for indices that have done well and tells you the moves remain concentrated in certain areas. Those areas had better continue to hold up. Also, on any drop, new lows outstrip new highs telling you that there is some ugly underneath the surface.

Speaking of ugly, we remain in earnings season. What do we mean? For a good market, there have been lots of blow-ups.  MSTR, ELLI, WIX, WDC, OZRK, SBUX, KLAC, BWLD come to mind but there are many others.

Do not get us wrong. So far, major indices act fine. Corrections remain short-lived and shallow. All major indices remain above the 50 day average.  A decent amount of growth remains in fine shape with only a few cracking. Just want to point out the continued divergences. If they do not get resolved, when a correction ultimately occurs, it will more than likely be worse than normal. Too many are complacent and too many are passive. We understand why. Markets condition people based on market action and when you have had no corrections in 8 months, one forgets about them. We don’t. But until major averages get taken out…no sweat. Just realize all the bad areas like retail and the rest…remain bad.

Lots more earnings this week  as well as more nonsense out of Washington. Stay tuned.

 

 

AMZN gapping down $32. It was up $30, finished down $6. Now down to breakout point. $1000 number important to hold.

BIDU accelerating numbers…gapping out of base this morning.

Big NASDAQ reversal yesterday…and it was not the good kind. The DOW saved the day ramping into the close…but after scanning, you can tell the boys are now on defense with the beta. Lots of negative bars in TECH and all that crap. But it may just be working off some of the move off the July 7th low. We will know more as cards come out of the deck.

Lots of jello moving on plate today. NASDAQ futures down decently…S&P less so. Got some real ugly gaps past couple of days like:

BWLD,TWTR, WHR, FFIV, SAVE, SBUX, ELLI, MSTR and a bunch others.

And just letting you know…in the past two days:

The DOW is up 183 points but the whole move was BOEING (BA)!

While the DOW was up 183, the S&P was down 2 points. The NASDAQ was down 30 points. Just saying.

And finally, the Republicons did not fail us. We have been telling you for a long time that THIS leadership was terrible. They have been a party to $20 trillion of debt, massive deficits, an increase in the socialist state and all that crap. The issue is they are not as bad as the socialist party but they are still bad. They had a chance to do something about “the state” and wimped out. Keep in mind, last night’s vote was nothing more than a fake vote. Even if it was passed, it would have been based on the guarantee that it would never become law….

How about some stats?

Federal spending this year $4.1 trillion. In 2000, it was $1.7 trillion. Every one of those dimes being sucked out of the real economy. Where the hell is the money going?

Medicaid now serves over 70 million people. It started out as a program for the indigent. We are already running massive deficits because of this type of program but who cares. And when things are free, they get used more and abused more..all on the backs of the taxpayer. Much of healthcare is already government/bureaucracy run. Why do you think it is getting worse? You have been Grubered.

Even though we sent them $3.3 trillion (a record) last year, they still ran a $600 billion deficit. And deficits are slated to go much higher in the years ahead. Keep in mind, without the rigging and manipulating of rates by the central banks (s), these deficits would be much much much higher. But they are doing no one favors as deficits go higher because the numbskulls think free money (low rates) should allow them to go more into debt. Yes…they are insane.

$435 BILLION…$435 BILLION…Did I tell you $435 billion of taxpayer dollars will go just to pay the interest on the debt these clowns have created? That’s $435 billion into a black hole. Doing nothing for no one. Bye bye. Again, would be much higher if not for the moronic central bank(s). Think about that. Yet they complain they don’t have enough money and even this new administration floating some tax hikes as well as keeping the Obamacare tax hikes.

As I watched last night, at 130 am, my only thought was that many of those Senators on the floor have been there forever, thus they are miserable failures. Miserable failures as stewards of our tax dollars. Miserable failures yet they are still deciding and voting on our future. If you go to the doctor with a broken right arm and the doctor puts a cast on your left arm, will you go back to that doctor?

But don’t worry. It’s just debt and deficits. The markets been going higher. Everything is fine until the market says otherwise.

 

 

Since many are asking:

TRANSPORTS down 180 as we write this. Not a pretty picture. First off, we are not DOW THEORY people. DOW theorists say  the DOW and TRANSPORTS need to confirm each other and if one sways badly, it augurs trouble ahead. We are not so sure. We just believe you stay away from this area. Many AIRLINES smoked. RAILS very suspect and important FDX rolling over. This should not get you overall bearish. Other things are working. Just more rotation. Can the TRANSPORTS leak into the rest of market? Sure it can…but until it does, quite the folly to ignore what is working.

And BOEING (BA). The stock is up an amazing 28 points in less than 2 days on raised guidance. We guess that’s about 180 DOW points. Wow! Too extended but could have said that yesterday. Bull market in manufacturing airplanes.