10/09/2012: GARY ON NATIONALLY SYNDICATED INVESTORS EDGE RADIO BROADCAST

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https://archives.warpradio.com/btr/InvestorsEdge/100918.mp3

JUST LETTING YOU KNOW

I want to talk about a few things seriously here. As you know, we have been discussing with you that we have been seeing distribution in the markets. We are seeing certain areas that are already in big trouble. We talked about the Nasdaq and Nasdaq-100. We talked about the Transports. Yesterday, I talked about 5 distribution days on the NYSE and 3 on the Nasdaq. A distribution day is a high volume selling day to the downside that you don’t want to see too much more of. And we had another one today.

But at the outset, I had the honor once again to appear on Neil Cavuto’s Your World at 4:00 PM today. And really, the discussion was going to be about earnings. We were discussing earnings and that the estimates are to be down for this quarter year-over-year.

And would that impact the market? I said, potentially yes because:

1. Valuations are back up since the market’s up.
2. The Fed has already announced and showed their hand that they’re just going to print trillions of dollars, open ended blah, blah, blah.

Earnings are a real defining force behind the market.

But then Neil asked me about the employment figures. As you know, I predicted that the employment rate would be under 8% by the election. As you know, I put out a couple reports on that. And as you know, when they came out under 8%, I put out a report, “7.8% My A –“ (Rhymes with mass).

So let me finalize for each and every one of you because,  as I start this show, I got about 75 emails from my appearance with Neil Cavuto.

Let me be blunt. We have a government that has brought us $16 trillion in debt. Not you or I. The government has spent $16 trillion dollars more than they have taken in, even though they take in a couple trillion in a year.

We have a government that runs a Post Office losing billions.

Amtrak losing billions.

Medicare and Medicaid losing God knows much.

Social Security, a business that was supposed to be…you put your money in, you take your money out. They raided the Social Security. There’s nothing there except IOUs from workers today to pay you off if you’re retiring today.

So what’s wrong with being a skeptic of the government? 

The same government that took us into the war in Iraq. That worked out well. That’s a trillion.

What else? You want me to talk more? I could.

So why is it bad to question them? Why is it bad to question the agendas and the motives of these politicians? After all, we have a Democrat in power. Yet, somehow by coincidence, all these Green Energy companies that are going bankrupt are run by Democrats. And all these grants and loans – about 75% to 80% of them, have gone to Democrats. Why can’t we question that?

Isn’t that our right?

See here’s the thing I noticed about this employment thing. Jack Welch. I’ve had the honor to appear on TV with him also on Fox News. I don’t know him personally. I’ve met him. Shook his hand. And he questioned the government’s statistic. And the media gave him a colonoscopy that lasted days. A great American. Good guy…questions their statistics and he’s ripped by the national media.

See my only question is, why wasn’t the national media questioning the number? That’s their job. They’re supposed to be a watchdog of those numbers. Instead, they question a man that questioned the numbers. And you know, I look at everything from the national media from the prism of, what if George Bush was president. Imagine if George Bush was president right now running for reelection and somehow the unemployment rate went from 8.3% to 7.8% even though 200,000 jobs were created. Instead of blasting Jack Welch, they’d be calling him a great American and thanking him for his curiosity and his cynicism. But since they’re in the tank for the guy who is the president…no you’re a bad guy. You’re scum. You’re a sleaze. How dare you. You’re embarrassing yourself. Of course, when Austan Goolsbee wrote an op-ed in 03…accusing the Bushies of cooking the employment books, you couldn’t even hear the crickets.

Well I have news for you. The numbers were B.S. and there’s nobody that’s going to tell me differently. You can’t take unemployment from 8.3% to 7.8% in 60 days and only create 200,000 jobs without playing with the numbers. Ooooh that’s right. Here’s what they did. They took something called the Household Survey, which has a plus or minus margin of error of 400,000 and trying to tell us that 832,000 out of nowhere found jobs.

Sure.

But there’s a problem with that too. I emailed the BLS as I told you and asked them for a list of the 832,000. As a matter of fact, I would take a list of 50. They said they don’t keep a list.

So why shouldn’t I question the number?

You see, after all, the Republicans have been harping on 8%.

8%…8%…8%. The unemployment rate’s been above 8% for 43% months. 8%…8%…8%. So there’s a job to be done. Get it under 8%. Job well done.

So you can call me names. You can call me a moron. You can call me an idiot. You can call me a doofus.

I’ve got news for you. I’m an American and I get to question the government. And when there are ridiculous over-the-top anomalies like this that make absolutely no sense whatsoever, right before an election – sorry that’s my job since guess what – the journalists aren’t going to do it because George Bush is not the president right now.

I ain’t buying it. And I ain’t buying what they they’re selling. And Jack Welch was too nice.

And that’s my take.

There was an agenda. There was motive. And job well done, backed by the national con-artist media that refuses to report anything bad right now, because of who’s running the show, and only everything is great.

Fine and dandy. But you can’t lie about numbers. Show me the 832,000 people. Show me the 400,000 people that are no longer unemployed that were part of this equation while we’ve only created 200,000 jobs in 60 days. Are you kidding?

In plain sight, a scam. That’s what it was. And I know there are defenders and this, that and the other thing. I don’t care. I look at numbers. 

And, by the way, the Labor Secretary, Hilda Solis said on TV, yeah these are only estimates. So you’re telling me that somebody in there that’s politicized didn’t play with an estimate? You think that can’t happen?

You know this administration, while our ambassador and three others were murdered in Libya, was out for two weeks stating it was because of a video and not because not terrorism…and we’re finding out now that they knew it was terrorism from day one. Is it wrong to question numbers?

And again, just to be fair and balanced here– I can’t stand any of them. I’ve called out Republicans dozens of times. I’ve called out people like Boehner. I think most of them are just full of it. When George Bush was spending like crazy, Boehner and Republicans didn’t say a word. Now all of all sudden, arragh…don’t spend…don’t spend…don’t spend! So I don’t buy into any of them. I’ve had it up to here with all of them. Just like you, I want a fair and balanced level playing field…in markets, in government and in things that affect our lives. But I have news for you, no president…no government is going to decide on where my life goes. Unfortunately, there are many that think there life is defined by what government does on a daily basis.

And that’s my take.

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Gary Kaltbaum owns Kaltbaum Capital Management, LLC (“KCM”), an investment adviser registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The opinions expressed herein are those of Mr. Kaltbaum and may not reflect those of KCM. The information offered in this publication is general information that does not take into account the individual circumstances, financial situation or individual needs of an investor. The information herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we cannot assure its accuracy or completeness. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. Any reference to past performance is not to be implied or construed as a guarantee of future results.