1/19 MORNING NOTES

So MSFT buying ATVI for $95 in cash. So why is ATVI $82 and change? Anti-trust….the worry that the feds come in and say no. We think odds favor deal gets done but that is just a guess and we have no idea how long it takes. Also…wonder whether a SONY comes in and raises the number.

OILS remain the strength. FINANCIALS also but not all as a few biggies like BLK, GS, JPM cough it up. This morning, BAC and MS are up on earnings. Fundamentally, nothing good happens if OIL PRICES keep heading north.

High beta growth remain ridiculously stretched, extended and oversold. A study was done that stated 40% of the NASDAQ is down 50% or more. We will not quibble with that number as we have been highlighting the carnage on a daily basis. Eventually, they will have a good counter-trend rally but it will be vicious, random and fleeting and will not change the trend just yet.

Every tick up in yields moves Powell farther behind the curve.

The NASDAQ is now below the 200 day moving average. IT HAD BETTER NOT STAY THERE.