06/15/2012: GARY ON NATIONALLY SYNDICATED INVESTORS EDGE RADIO BROADCAST

Byaaronmat-admin

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https://archives.warpradio.com/btr/InvestorsEdge/061518.mp3

JUST LETTING YOU KNOW

So Why Do I Feel Good?

As you know, we’ve had a rough couple of months. Last­­­­­ week, the market undercut important support, reversed back above it and held. That’s a start.

As you know, the leading growth names that I have mentioned to you on my radio show continue to lead. Some of them were doing things I really didn’t think they could do while the market wasn’t doing that great.

Fast forward to yesterday. At 3:05 PM EST, it was announced that Central Banks around the globe stand ready to provide liquidity to “this that and the other thing” in case “this that and the other thing happens.”

And jets got going into the close yesterday. I think the Dow went up 120 points in 45 seconds.

Leading into today.

Today, I must tell you that, into about 1:00 PM EST, the Dow was up pretty decently and we typically don’t care about the Dow that much. The Nasdaq was up okay and that’s where we want to see leadership. And we also want to see something called a Follow-Through Day (FTD).

While we had heavier volume today, the most I have on the major indices is about 1.3% on the Nasdaq. The S&P 500 was up 1% today. The Dow was up less than 1%. The Nasdaq-100 was up about 1.2%. The Russell 2000 was up about 1.2%.

So why do I feel good if we don’t have a FTD yet?

Okay…listen carefully. I’m going to measure my words very carefully because I care about what you guys hear.

I think yesterday, the Fed in conjunction with the rest changed things, for now. I think they had a market that was teetering again and they juiced it again, as the market is making a bet again on big liquidity coming from the Fed again…no matter what.

There was talk again that if the elections in Greece go wrong this week, they’re going to do it no matter what. QE 3, QE 4, QE 5…I don’t care what you call it. It’s coming. And it doesn’t even matter to me what the Fed says.

BUT CAVEAT TIME….

  • Notwithstanding me not knowing what comes out of Greece this weekend.
  • Notwithstanding me not knowing what the market’s reaction to Greece will be. (By the way, I think the Greek market was up 15% in the past two days, leading up to the election. Just keep in mind it was down 55% since February.)
  • Notwithstanding what the Fed does when they meet next week.
  • Notwithstanding that I don’t know what the reaction to the Fed is going to be (Remember we are dealing, now more than ever, with government interference and a news-driven environment.)

Notwithstanding any of above – I love today’s action. You see, part of a FTD is the action in the leading stocks. We’re getting some real good action the growth names that I have provided for you on my radio show for you to investigate on your own.

And that is muy importante. Now, I must tell you, there is a quandary. As you know, we look for these FTDs. The people that wrote the rules of the FTD have changed those rules based on market conditions.

Here’s how I’m looking at it. Stocks are starting to work again. What I care about is:

  • The action that I’m seeing on individual names that I’ve talked about…
  • The action of the market itself and the technical condition of it…

And that’s where I end.

Notwithstanding any “news-driven-drive-us-up-wall type action” next week. Because the fact of the matter is, none of know what the reaction is going to be. Nobody knows what the Fed’s going to do, though I have my guess. Nobody knows about Greece. Nobody knows.

But I know one thing, I like in the action the stocks here.

And I’m not ignoring it.

Now, we’ll see what happens on Monday off of Greece.

But I got news for you. They ain’t gonna let bad happen. What are you kidding me? In case you don’t know, all of these other countries own a crap load of Greek debt. You think they’re going to let Greece go down? NO.

By the way, why do you think they’re providing liquidity to banks? Who do you think owns that debt? Yes.

But that doesn’t change anything else I’m telling you.

Action is very compelling in here in the leading growth names. Some of the worst areas have come off the lows. Some of the foreign markets are showing bottoming formations.

And I really like the technical movement in the major indices today.

As always, it’s your money and you get to decide what to do. 

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Gary Kaltbaum owns Kaltbaum Capital Management, LLC (“KCM”), an investment adviser registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The opinions expressed herein are those of Mr. Kaltbaum and may not reflect those of KCM. The information offered in this publication is general information that does not take into account the individual circumstances, financial situation or individual needs of an investor. The information herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we cannot assure its accuracy or completeness. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. Any reference to past performance is not to be implied or construed as a guarantee of future results.