01/03/2013: GARY ON NATIONALLY SYNDICATED INVESTORS EDGE RADIO BROADCAST
https://archives.warpradio.com/btr/InvestorsEdge/010318.mp3
JUST LETTING YOU KNOW
Today was boring compared with yesterday. But it was okay compared with yesterday. There’s nothing wrong with a pullback day. I’d like to see a few more days like this, but I gather we’ll get something tomorrow in way of movement from the fake jobs numbers. And yes ladies and gentlemen, it’s fake. Don’t argue with me. It’s fake.
Go get a chart of how many people they have taken out of the workforce over the past four years.
And then email or call the government and ask them for the list of those people that have left the workforce because every person that leaves the workforce makes the unemployment rate look better.
So we don’t buy into the B.S. that’s going on there. The bottom line is…if you don’t have a job – not good.
Now things have gotten somewhat better. I don’t know how much better. But we’re going to need to do more.
As you know my biggest worry is that anything that’s going on – good or bad – is on the back of massive deficits that they have to pay back one day. But that will be for another day.
GOLD: When Every Bad Day is a Good Day
I do this once everybody couple months just to go over the thesis that we have here based on the late-70s.
- It is not a prediction. We are predicting nothing.
- We are not telling you to do anything.
- We are outlining precedent.
Most often gargantuan secular bull markets, in anything, end in something called a climatic run. In other words, you’re in a bull market for 10…12…15 years and you go through many bear markets during that time, which are normal.
At the end of the cycle you get something on a chart that looks like an Eifel Tower.
You’re going up…you’re going up…and then all of a sudden it goes parabolic. And you double the money within a week’s time. After a decent run, that’s the climatic move.
And 100% of the time, those climatic moves will look like the Eifel Tower.
Straight up…straight down.
So about 15 months ago on my radio show, I outlined for you what Gold did in the late 1970s, after a gargantuan bull market. It went through a bear market, bottomed and then took off. The final move in Gold was four-fold over months and it doubled in a matter of a couple of weeks. And that was a top and you went straight up and then straight down. Broke the back off of a climatic run, and that was the end.
I believe it was January 1980.
Well it’s my contention that Gold will probably do the same thing. We don’t know, but we’re watching out for it.
A part of theme was that we have to go through a bear market or a long phase of whittling people out of the market. And as you know, Gold has done nothing for many, many months. In fact Gold topped out in August of 2011…so about 17 months.
Now the good news for Gold people is that it’s not down that much. 185 to 161…not much.
Now that bear market that preceded the big run in Gold back in the 1970s was about a 40% to 50% drop. I don’t know if I’m seeing that this time and that’s because we are in an unprecedented money printing time.
But the question that I get is, “Why isn’t Gold running now, with all the money printing?”
It’s simple. Gold is still digesting the move it had that has been going on for many a moon. That’s why.
Just go back to 2004. The GLD was 44 bucks. It’s now 160. This is quite normal. So I just want to remind you that nothing is going with Gold.
I’m watching.
And the goal is simple here. If we have a repeat performance of the 1970s, the goal is to be on it – and on it in a big way. You usually do not see such uniform precedent. But we’re seeing it right now. And everything that Gold is doing is kinda sorta happened in the late 1970s before the move.
So stay in gear.
Stay in tune.
There’s nothing to do. In fact, it’s acting like caca.
But I think that sometime this year, Gold’s going to take off. And my plan is to have a good portion of the bucks sitting in it, as the printing of money causes some issues.
As long as the Gold trades below the 50-day moving average (and now sitting on the 200-day moving average) don’t even have to think about it.
But I thought it of note today because it had a bad day. And if we’re going to have that run again, every bad day is a good day.
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Gary Kaltbaum owns Kaltbaum Capital Management, LLC (“KCM”), an investment adviser registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The opinions expressed herein are those of Mr. Kaltbaum and may not reflect those of KCM. The information offered in this publication is general information that does not take into account the individual circumstances, financial situation or individual needs of an investor. The information herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we cannot assure its accuracy or completeness. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. Any reference to past performance is not to be implied or construed as a guarantee of future results.