The Morning Look

Stock Market Overview:

U.S. stock futures are up on Tuesday as investors digest Monday’s wild up, down and then up again session. Keep in mind, the market is deeply oversold and way overdue to bounce at some point. Gary has expressed caution and has been telling you about how the market has been getting weaker not stronger over much of 2015.

Gary’s Thoughts:  

We forgot to mention one thing yesterday. We do not think we have ever seen big down days on the day of the State of the Union speech but will have to look it up.
We told you yersterday we thought a good low is being carved out at Monday’s low…and today, we walk into a nice gap to the upside…yippee!
Yesterday’s reversal and today’s big gap insures a breather. After 1600 points down in 8 days, YOU HAVE TO GET A RALLY EVENTUALLY  and as we told you, it usually starts on a big gap. A strong Europe this morning leads the way.
We suspect a good low has been put in a for a while to make the bulls feel better and wipe the smiles off of the bear’s faces. Again, WE IN NO WAY THINK THIS CHANGES THE BIG PICTURE. Big rallies occur in bearish markets.
Lastly, earnings are straight away. For a change, ON A POSITIVE NOTE, earnings guidance has come down markedly so the game of “beat the number” could come easily. Whether or not that lights a fire under stocks, we shall see. Keep in mind, earnings growth stinks and as well as sales growth. For example, Apple’s growth last 4 quarters were +48, +40, +45 and +38. Estimates are now to be a whopping +5…a major deceleration. Even when accounting for the usual Apple sandbagging, it will still be a big drop in the growth rate.
Stay tuned. We suspect a lot of whippiness. (We are not sure what whippiness means but you get the picture). We will know a lot more as this rally/bounce plays out. 

Economic Data:

  • Stanley Fischer Speaks 5:30 AM ET
  • NFIB Small Business Optimism Index 6:00 AM ET
  • Redbook 8:55 AM ET
  • JOLTS 10:00 AM ET
  • Jeffrey Lacker Speaks 3:15 PM ET

Highlights Of The Day:

    • Oil prices fell 6% on Monday and plunged to the lowest level since 2003!
      Gary’s Thoughts: Unreal…just unreal!
    • Hillary Clinton seeks surcharge tax on wealthiest tier of Americans
      Gary’s Thoughts: We have a lot of 4-letter words we can use when describing this person but will remain a gentlemen. There is never enough OF YOUR MONEY for people like this. We will leave it at that.
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