AND THEY MAKE FUN OF ME FOR WATCHING PRO WRESTLING

[email_link]

Every month, I tell you it is time for the fake job’s report. I use the word “fake” because it is. It is manipulated with the numbers being  made up. It is a small sampling with all kinds of weird things added like the birth/death thingy. And now, the easy game is to come out with horrid numbers but somehow lower the unemployment rate. How? Just take a ton of people out of the workforce.

This morning, the fake number has the unemployment rate down to 8.1% even though job growth was anemic. The BLS, which for now on, will be called the BS, wants you to believe that 368,000 more people came out of the workforce. I have news for you, I can make the unemployment rate 5% right now. Just take a few million more people out of the workforce. The number of people who have supposedly come out of the workforce has risen markedly in the past decade. 

So just take the participation rate down from 63.5% to hmmm…let’s just say 58%. Yeah…that’s the ticket. You see,…I just dropped the unemployment rate…vote for me. Of course, there really isn’t a list of people who left the workforce. It is made up. I have personally emailed the BLS to just give me a few names off that supposed list…no answer!

So don’t make fun of me for being a pro wrestling fan. At least they admit the storylines are fake. This report should come out every month on Comedy Central. And how much would you like to wager that somehow, we will see 7.9% before the election.

Gary Kaltbaum owns Kaltbaum Capital Management, LLC (“KCM”), an investment adviser registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The opinions expressed herein are those of Mr. Kaltbaum and may not reflect those of KCM. The information offered in this publication is general information that does not take into account the individual circumstances, financial situation or individual needs of an investor. The information herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we cannot assure its accuracy or completeness. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. Any reference to past performance is not to be implied or construed as a guarantee of future results.

kaltbaum premarket

Wicked premarket.
 
Fake jobs number…down to 8.1% even though number was terrible. They will have it under 8% by election. They are arbitrarily taking people out of workforce to get to number.
 
INTEL warns. In the past, that will kill market but with fed now going to print more with ECB, who cares!
 
Futures down a wee bit but gold and silver again soaring because of weak number…+more money printing. I apologize to the service for not getting back into gold and silver but service stocks are kicking a–.
 
I hope you dont mind but will not add anything today. I want to see if they settle in yesterday’s move. I do see the financials up early after yesterday’s action. I guess they like money printing. Names like STI broke out…and may actually put a couple names into the service. These are not growth names but they lllok like they want to work.
 
Will have a full leaders report over weekend…and may have a couple additions.

09/06/2012: GARY ON NATIONALLY SYNDICATED INVESTORS EDGE RADIO BROADCAST

[email_link]

http://archives.warpradio.com/btr/InvestorsEdge/090618.mp3

JUST LETTING YOU KNOW

When I woke up this morning, the Wall Street Journal headline was:

Europe Outlook Dims As Bank Meets. Downturn Deepened Over Summer Complicating Choice For European Central Bank Officials.

We have under 2% growth here in the U.S. The unemployment rate is in the 8% range. There will be an unemployment number tomorrow and one more before the election.

Let me tell you my thought process: They’re going to lie. I’ll leave it at that.

So we have all this negative economic news. In fact, in Europe, they’re in negative GDP.

We had a manufacturing number this week that was recessionary. And I could go on.

In the past two weeks, I have told that there’s been a certain pattern of fear and greed in the market that has been setting up. It doesn’t set up often for major indices. That pattern is a “Cup and Handle.”

It means that the market hit a high a few months ago, came down and corrected and then came back at the highs – making a cup. Then pulled back and for three weeks sat tight – making a little handle.

That is typically a bullish pattern, but we will need to see the market and what makes up the market – break through the highs. And if it does, that would be bullish.

Now keep in mind that, just because something breaks out of a trading range doesn’t mean the market doesn’t tuck its head back in the next day and turn tail. There are things called failed breakouts. They do happen. They don’t usually happen in markets though. We’ll see.

The Nasdaq broke above the handle today with volume. The handle was 3100 and the old high from late-March 3134 and the market nudged just above it. The Nasdaq-100 had good symmetry at 2800, broke through there today, and closed at 2829. Classic looking.

The S&P 500 which had very good symmetry in the 1422 to 1425 area, broke through today and closed at 1432.

When you look that that past two weeks, the patterns were very tight.

The Dow – almost. It needs to get above 13,338 and it closed at 13,290. Keep in mind that the Dow is only 30 stocks.

The Russell 2000 needs to break above 827 and closed at 839 and the old high is 847 – we’re getting close.

On top of that:

The financials, represented by the XLF, broke above resistance today and so did IYF. So did the KBE and the KRE, which are back indices.

Do I need to go further? Do you catch the drift?

It was very good day in the market today.

That’s all.

Let’s just hope to sticks because if does, there’s going to be a ton of opportunities to take advantage, while nobody believes it and all the news is bad.

I’ve told you why this is happening and why it would happen. The Fed is going to print a crap-load of more money and today it was announced by the European Central Bank that they’re going to do the same. In fact, they used the word “UNLIMITED.”

So now you have central banks around the globe printing the crap out of money that is not even there today in order to juice things. We know Bernanke targeted the market in his Jackson Hole speech. He talked about how since March of 2009, look at what the market has done since QE1. He’s given himself a victory lap. And you know what?

It’s working. But you may ask, what if next week the Fed decides not to print more money?”

Well, I would suspect, the market will go back down. But I think it’s in his genes. This is what he does. He creates bubbles.

LISTEN TO GARY LIVE ON WEEKDAYS 6-7 PM ON A STATION NEAR YOU AND AT GARYK.COM

6-7 pm EST

Best of Investor’s Edge
Saturdays 1-2 am EST

Gary Kaltbaum owns Kaltbaum Capital Management, LLC (“KCM”), an investment adviser registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The opinions expressed herein are those of Mr. Kaltbaum and may not reflect those of KCM. The information offered in this publication is general information that does not take into account the individual circumstances, financial situation or individual needs of an investor. The information herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we cannot assure its accuracy or completeness. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. Any reference to past performance is not to be implied or construed as a guarantee of future results.

 

kaltbaum email

Service stocks kicking in gear. KORS really looks like it has serious. Let’s hope.
 
Cup and handle breakouts for s&p and nasdaq and ndx. Others just behind. If you are an etf buyer, you can buy them. Also, financials moved above resistance.
 
before doing anything else, will wait for fake job’s number to come out in the morning. Be ready for some new names.

LET’S BUILD MORE STADIUMS

[email_link]

New York Giants fans will cheer on their team against the Dallas Cowboys at tonight’s National Football League opener in New Jersey. At tax time, they’ll help pay for the opponents’ $1.2 billion home field in Texas.

That’s because the 80,000-seat Cowboys Stadium was built partly using tax-free borrowing by the City of Arlington. The resulting subsidy comes out of the pockets of every American taxpayer, including Giants fans. The money doesn’t go directly to the Cowboys’ billionaire owner Jerry Jones. Rather, it lowers the cost of financing, giving his team the highest revenue in the NFL and making it the league’s most-valuable franchise.

Continued

SOURCE: http://www.bloomberg.com

THE BREAKOUT

[email_link]

This past weekend, I wrote to you that the market was set up in a bullish pattern…and all the market would need to do is to go topside. That move looks to be occurring. Keep in mind, there is no rule that says a breakout to new highs won’t fail. It is just important to recognize when one occurs. A few thoughts:

Never underestimate the power of central banks to conjure up trillions of dollars and euros that were not there yesterday. There is no doubt in my mind that this market is reacting to that…and that alone. It certainly couldn’t be the recessionary numbers coming out of Europe. It certainly couldn’t be the slowdown in China. It certainly couldn’t be the under-2% growth in the U.S. It certainly couldn’t be an anemic unemployment rate…though I wonder what rabbit comes out of the hat for the next couple of fake job’s reports leading up to the election.

This is all about massive liquidity. It has worked since March 09 and now with Europe joining in…looks like it will continue to work. Bernanke has targeted the market…leave no doubt. In his recent Jackson Hole speech, he actually said this: “LSAPs (Large scale asset purchases) also appear to have boosted stock prices, presumably both by lowering discount rates and by improving the economic outlook; it is probably not a coincidence that the sustained recovery in U.S. equity prices began in March 2009, shortly after the FOMC’s decision to greatly expand security purchases. This effect is potentially important because stock values affect both consumption and investment decisions.” So as you can see, this one man, on purpose has been and for that matter, has been successful at manipulating markets up. The problem with all this is simple. The markets are pretty much dependant on the whims of one man who can conjure up trillions at a moment’s notice…or no notice at all. What if he decides the opposite?

Technically:

The S&P, NASDAQ and the NDX have moved above resistance. The DOW and the RUSSELL are now knocking on the door. It is good to see the small-caps joining in as well as the mid-caps.

A whole host of sectors have also moved above resistance.

The market could not get going without FINANCIALS. Both the XLF and IYF have both broken above resistance. Many banks are breaking out of bases.

NEW HIGHS are finally expanding. As major indices move into new highs, many of the stocks that make up these indices move into new highs.

Nothing but good news on a technical basis here. It is also good news that because of all the economic bad news, no one believes in this market. One can understand…but again, trillions is trillions.

Gary Kaltbaum owns Kaltbaum Capital Management, LLC (“KCM”), an investment adviser registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The opinions expressed herein are those of Mr. Kaltbaum and may not reflect those of KCM. The information offered in this publication is general information that does not take into account the individual circumstances, financial situation or individual needs of an investor. The information herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we cannot assure its accuracy or completeness. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. Any reference to past performance is not to be implied or construed as a guarantee of future results.

kaltbaum premarket

Futures up decently as Draghi announcing blah blah blah print money…print money.
 
I have a few thoughts:
 
I expect the fake job’s number to be even faker this week and next month as we head into the election. Yes…I am a cynic and rightfully so. Somehow, we will get two good numbers entering the election. Remember, the job’s number is made up.
 
Major indices remain in tight handles. A move higher and above here is bullish…a move below is actually not necessarily that bearish but will call into question any higher prices. My guess is we move higher as we now enter Bernankeland. I do believe market was ready to roll over recently but the Bernanke put is at hand. I expect something out of him next week when they meet. They will play paper football, X-box and then announce some more money printing.
 
If market moves topside, expect many more set-ups as things are tight in here. SWI and HAIN just moved above the tightness and hoping to play.
 
GLD and SLV will open up today but have not provided another good entry.
 
 
Sitting this morning…expecting financials to maybe get going again. Look at what GS did yesterday.

kaltbaum email

No additions tonight.
 
I am in camp there is a Bernanke put right now as the market awaits more QE. He had better not disappoint.
 
LNKD comes onto the radar after todays action but every time it moves out, it tucks back in. Maybe this time.
 
Even with market hanging in here, lots of damage but not affecting the averages. Seeing a lot of damage in commodities, transport-types like fdx,ups and the rails.

09/05/2012: GARY ON NATIONALLY SYNDICATED INVESTORS EDGE RADIO BROADCAST

[email_link]

http://archives.warpradio.com/btr/InvestorsEdge/090518.mp3

JUST LETTING YOU KNOW

Now guess what we’re waiting on? Last week in Jackson Hole, Wyoming the Fed was going to be announcing the printing of money and they kinda said, they’re going to print money, but they’re not sure when. So they left you hanging.

So next week, there is a Fed and meeting and supposedly, they’re going to print money – I don’t know.

All I can tell you is that we’re held hostage by one man and his minions and it nauseates the heck of out me. I don’t know how we got to a point where one man – not the president – has so many controls and so many levers at this hands.

I don’t know where it says in the constitution “Let’s print money.”

I don’t know where in the constitution it says, “Let’s run $16 trillion in deficits.”

I don’t know. Hopefully, I’m the nutcase and everything just turns out a-ok.

Transports

The Transports continue to act very poorly vs. the rest of the markets. I don’t ascribe to the Dow Theory, but that being said the Transports continue to act pitifully. The Rails, which were kinda a-ok, are starting to get in trouble here. The strongest name in the rails, Union Pacific, broke below the 50-Day moving average today and a little extra volume. I’m not sure that’s good news. Norfolk Southern has completely broken down. CSX has completely broken down. I believe Kansas City Southern is still hanging in there.

A lot of the airlines are not acting too well, while they had a better day today. So I’m just letting you know that it’s something I’m keeping in my file manager even though I don’t follow the Dow Theory. While all the major indices actually have some decent patterns here, the Transports have had no bid whatsoever.

So for me, I’m just staying out of the Transports. That’s all. And if it affects the rest of the market, well know.

Keep in Mind

  • It’s September, which arguably is not the very best month.
  • We’re in an election year.
  • You have the Fed next week. Beats the heck out of me what those dufases are doing to do. Time will tell. I long for the day when the markets stops reacting to anything they say. The way, they’ll shut up and stop doing things.
  • Also, the European Central Bank people look like they read the book called, “Bernankeitis because they’re following his footsteps. They’re going to print unlimited amounts of Euros to buy their bonds over there.

So there’s lots of things going on. But regardless of the market, we go underneath the surface to find out what’s doing, what’s not, and try to keep you away from the pitfalls – and try to guide you to what’s doing well.

LISTEN TO GARY LIVE ON WEEKDAYS 6-7 PM ON A STATION NEAR YOU AND AT GARYK.COM

6-7 pm EST

Best of Investor’s Edge
Saturdays 1-2 am EST

Gary Kaltbaum owns Kaltbaum Capital Management, LLC (“KCM”), an investment adviser registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The opinions expressed herein are those of Mr. Kaltbaum and may not reflect those of KCM. The information offered in this publication is general information that does not take into account the individual circumstances, financial situation or individual needs of an investor. The information herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we cannot assure its accuracy or completeness. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. Any reference to past performance is not to be implied or construed as a guarantee of future results.