—–“””The United States Trade Representative (USTR) today announced the next steps in the process of imposing an additional tariff of 10 percent on approximately $300 billion of Chinese imports. On May 17, 2019, USTR published a list of products imported from China that would be potentially subject to an additional 10 percent tariff. This new tariff will go into effect on September 1 as announced by President Trump on August 1. Certain products are being removed from the tariff list based on health, safety, national security and other factors and will not face additional tariffs of 10 percent. Further, as part of USTR’s public comment and hearing process, it was determined that the tariff should be delayed to December 15 for certain articles. Products in this group include, for example, cell phones, laptop computers, video game consoles, certain toys, computer monitors, and certain items of footwear and clothing. USTR intends to conduct an exclusion process for products subject to the additional tariff. The USTR will publish on its website today, and in the Federal Register as soon as possible, additional details and lists of the tariff lines affected by this announcement.””””—–
—–Health, safety, national security and other factors? We are not stupid Mr. President! This has nothing to do with health, safety, national security and other factors. The president, once again, backed away from new tariffs because of market deterioration.—–
—–We are not complaining about this move. We hate tariffs. And yes Mr. president, business and consumer pay for the tariffs. Why do you think you paid off the farmers with $28 billion of our tax dollars? We are complaining because we cannot stand policy based on market movement. This is not ordering carpet and tile for hotels. There will come a day where this becomes a “boy who cried wolf” market. There will come a day where markets have had enough with this “Sybil”-like economic policy which changes with market winds. There will come a day where markets do not believe a word that comes out of this president’s mouth.—–
—–On cue, markets get back what they lost yesterday…and more. Technology leads today as technology was just excused from detention. APPLE (AAPL) rallies up 5% immediately. (Would like to see Tim Cook’s phone logs as we are sure he has been talking to the president on this.) The good news is that the President backed away from stupidity. The bad news is that one day the market will not trust a word from Mr. Bluster and then watch what happens with markets.—–
Uh…yesterday was a bad day.
Yesterday, the big 4 indices could not get back above the 50 day and now look headed towards the 200 day.
The 200 day had better hold.
China/Hong Kong is a problem. We are with the people of Hong Kong but not when they shut down the airport. They only hurt themselves. We worry about a disproportionate response by the Chinese government.
Argentina is a problem. In early primary, pro-business dude not good…socialist makes big headway. Go look at AGT. A big wow.
Fewer and fewer names working. More and more names breaking first line of support.
We might as well wait until every morning before posting here as so many things change overnight.
Hong Kong airport closed down. This affected our open. Why? Beats the heck out of us.
Markets here are simple…becoming messy. Fewer and fewer names working. More and more names rolling over. Foreign markets remain much weaker. Small and mid caps continue to lag the large caps badly. Transports still not happening. Many areas like oils, retail remain bearish.
Major indices have taken on water recently. Just a good time to take a step back. There are still a decent amount of leaders just less so.
Yields continue to come down, notwithstanding bounces. We continue to ask what is wrong when $13 trillion of debt is negative, many economies starting to contract even with those negative rates…so we pay attention.
Bigger indices will open below their 50 day average today. That must change before anyone can get excited.
GOLD/GOLD STOCKS/SILVER/SILVER STOCKS remain strongest but only on pullbacks or settling down.
They say here in Orlando that we have some of the greatest roller coasters in the world as Orlando does have quite the few amusement parks. But they have nothing on this market, nothing on a tweeting president, nothing on a central bank as they continue to move markets on a dime. Markets used to have a decent ebb and flow. Not any more. Washington DC has assured that. This morning, it is the Huawei thing. Up next?????????????????????
Two more thoughts…UBER…that was some crappy numbers and one thing not highlighted…continued deceleration of sales.
THE METS…3 above .500 and 1 behind wild card.
The script continues. Every time markets get in trouble, the fed starts the easy money rhetoric. If it doesn’t work a first time, try a second time. Two days ago, it was Bullard. Yesterday, it was Evans. None of this is by accident.
Here is how we believe this plays out:
If markets ignore the 2nd attempt by the fed to stanch the bleeding, we suspect there will be a louder attempt at rhetoric, maybe something to the effect of using the word “imminent!” If that doesn’t work, expect them to take action before the next meeting. After all, it should be evident now it is all abpout the markets for these people. After all, the meeting is Sept-25-26…a long way away. They will not wait that long if markets do not cooperate.
If markets do cooperate with the fed rhetoric, they will be able to wait but it is a mortal lock of rate cuts at the September meeting. Just keep in mind, if rates stay where they are in the market, a rate cut is meaningless as the market is way head of the fed…or putting it better, the fed is way behind the market.
As far as yesterday, just an very very very oversold market rally. We were oversold but foreign markets a lot worse. Emerging market stocks have been bludgeoned. They have to bounce somewhere. At this juncture, we will know more on how this bounce plays out. If it fails quickly, not good.
As far as rates, the bond bubble may be in the climactic stage. This occurs when maniacal investors buy longer term bonds yielding negative…only to make money on capital gains…AFTER a gigantic bond market run. We also have to mention Austria was able to float a 100 year bond…at 1.2%. Repeat…100 years at 1.2%. But don’t worry, Powell tells us there are no bubbles.