The Closing Look

Stocks closed mixed to mostly higher on Tuesday as the very strong election rally continued. Before the open, the government said GDP rose 3.2% in Q3, beating estimates for a gain of 3.1%. A separate report showed decent data for the real-estate market. The S&P Corelgoic Case-Shiller Home Price Index rose 0.4%, matching estimates for 0.4%. Finally, consumer confidence came in a t 107.1, easily beating estimates for 101. Elsewhere, oil prices fell 3.5% after Russia’s Energy Minister Alexander Novak said he will not attend the highly anticipated OPEC meeting on Wednesday. He did say that Russia is ready to discuss potential co-operation with OPEC if the group of oil-producing countries strikes a deal to cut output. Russia is a big producer of oil and their lack of interest in cutting production may derail OPEC’s plan to cut production.

Gary’s Thoughts: More importantly, loving the picks by Trump. Wilbur Ross is brilliant. Mnuchin brilliant. Now let’s hope they do as promised. Get DC out of the way of the American people. As we have told you, we cannot continue with the trajectory of higher taxes, massive government spending, massive debt, massive deficits, massive rules, massive regulations, massive mandates…all brought to you by the failures in DC. Just think of their logic…put away the big sodas, don’t eat as much salt…BUT GO AHEAD AND SMOKE THAT WEED! Only from government bureaucrats!

Tuesday Pre-Market Look: Stocks In The News Before The Open

Nivalis Therapeutics (NVLS) plunged over 50% in after-hours trading after it said its Phase 2 study evaluating cavosonstat failed to meet the primary endpoint in adult patients with cystic fibrosis.

Pfizer (PFE) was upgraded to ‘Overweight’ from ‘Equalweight’ at Barclays with a 12-month price target of $38.

Tiffany (TIF)— The luxury goods retailer earned 76 cents per share for the third quarter, nine cents a share above estimates. Revenue also topped forecasts. Tiffany did see same-store sales drop by two percent, but that was only half the expected drop. The company is cautiously optimistic about improving sales data, but says it needs to see additional positive news to consider this quarter “an inflection point.”

UnitedHealth Group (UNH) — The Dow industrial average component gave strong 2017 guidance ahead of a scheduled meeting with analysts and institutional investors. The health insurer expects to earn an adjusted $9.30 to $9.60 per share next year, compared to consensus estimates of $9.17 a share.

Mallinckrodt (MNK) — The drugmaker reported adjusted quarterly profit of $2.04 per share, seven cents a share above estimates. Revenue also exceeded Street forecasts. The company said its results were helped by double-digit growth in sales of its key branded drugs.

Mobileye (MBLY), Delphi Automotive (DLPH) — The two companies will use an Intel chip for their joint self-driving vehicle venture. Intel has been trying to broaden its reach into the fast-expanding autonomous vehicle market.

U.S. Steel (X) was downgraded to ‘Hold’ from ‘Buy’ at Argus.

TiVo (TIVO) rallied almost 5% in after-hours trading after it signed IP licensing pacts with Netflix.

Thor Industries (THO) jumped almost 10% in after-hours trading after it reported Q1 EPS continuing operations of $1.49, higher than consensus of $1.23.

SiteOne Landscape Supply (SITE) slipped 3% in after-hours trading after it announced a secondary offering of 8 million shares of common stock.

Allstate (ALL) fell over 1% in after-hours trading after it said it will buy SquareTrade for $1.4 billion in cash.

Texas Capital Bancshares (TCBI) dropped 3% in after-hours trading after it announced an offering of 3 million shares of common stock.

Shoe Carnival (SCVL) sank 10% in after-hours trading after it reported Q3 WPS of 54 cents, weaker than consensus of 56 cents, and then cut its view on fiscal 2017 EPS to $1.46-$1.51 from an August 31 view of $1.58-$1.65.

ZTO Express Cayman (ZTO) gained over 3% in after-hours trading after it reported Q3 earnings per ADS were 12 cents, higher than consensus of 11 cents.

Cotiviti Holdings (COTV) lost over 1% in after-hours trading after it announced a secondary public offering of 10 million shares of common stock.

21Vianet Group (VNET) rose over 3% in after-hours trading aft it reported a Q3 loss/ADR of -13 cents, a smaller decline than consensus of -15 cents.

Cherokee Global (CHKE) lost over 2% in after-hours trading after it announced plans to buy Hi-Tec Sports International Holdings for $95.8 million.

Bojangles’ Inc. (BOJA) slid 4% in after-hours trading after holders proposed a secondary offering of 6 million shares of common stock.

 

The Morning Look

Market Update:

Stock futures are a little higher ahead  of Tuesday’s open as the market pauses to digest a strong post election rally. Looking forward, the highlights for this week are: GDP, OPEC’s next meeting, End of Month, and the always fun (and fake) jobs report.

Gary’s Thoughts: OILS smoked on weakening oil prices. Someone in OPEC blinks again. Other than that, market needs to rest/pull back from the election rip to the upside. Doesn’t mean it has to.

Economic Calendar:

  • GDP 8:30 AM ET
  • Corporate Profits 8:30 AM ET
  • Redbook Bullet 8:55 AM ET
  • S&P Corelogic Case-Shiller HPI 9:00 AM ET
  • William Dudley Speaks 9:15 AM ET
  • Consumer Confidence 10:00 AM ET
  • State Street Investor Confidence Index 10:00 AM ET
  •  4-Week Bill Auction 11:30 AM ET

Highlights:

  • Elizabeth Warren slams Wells Fargo over arbitration position
    Gary’s Thoughts: Doesn’t she complain about everything? The fact is Wells should pay a price…which they have already.
  • AT&T Targets Cord-Cutters With DirecTV Now Web Video Service
    Gary’s Thoughts: More of this to come. People realizing why pay for 200 channels if they only watch a few channels.

The Closing Look

Stocks ended lower on Monday as traders returned from a shortened holiday week. The extended areas in the market began pulling back which is perfectly normal at this point. Later this week, the market has to deal with the OPEC meeting, the end of the month and the always fun and fake jobs report.

Gary’s Thoughts: Normal pullback day. Nothing stands out except names like MLM,VMC and others in group look like that’s it. OILS also disappoint again as they continue to tease move topside which continues to stall.

Weekend Market Notes…

By Gary Kaltbaum- November 27,2016

We can continue to be quite succinct with the market on both the good and the bad.

As far as what has been working, the worst thing we can see is that they are way, way, way overdue to pull in. All are stretched, all are extended and all remain due to revert to some sort of norm off of the post-election rally. We are talking all the major indices, especially the Russell 2000. In fact, since the election, the S&P is up 3.4%, the Nasdaq 3.9% but the Russell is up a whopping 13%! Keep in mind, a lot of the Russell has to do with the many smaller financials inside the index. If ever the financials decide to pull back, the Russell will pull back more. We also make note that while the pre-Thanksgiving trading usually has a bullish bias, the two weeks after usually leans negative.

So…

It is nothing but good when the Dow, S&P, Nasdaq, NDX, Russell 2000 and the Transports are in new yearly high ground. It is nothing but good when all are extended and cannot even muster a pullback.

It is nothing but good when the financials are leading…when the semis are leading and when previous weaker areas have come on like gangbusters…namely industrials,materials,metals, steel, insurance, restaurants and even a bunch of retail.

It is nothing but good when the market starts off quiet and finishes near the highs of the day.

It is nothing but good when extended gets more extended.

Of course, the same areas we have been bearish on…remain bearish, that being the bond market, utilities, real estate, food,drugs,beverage,tobacco,household products, emerging markets, junk bonds, gold/silver some of the mega-cap tech/internet and a few other areas. Keep in mind, just as the strong areas are extended to the upside, these weak areas are extended to the downside and could start bouncing.

So…while there is still enough that aint working, there is plenty that is working…and one should not argue. We will be looking for constructive pulling in of the best areas. We expect any pullback will be controlled and rotational right now.

Cyber Monday Pre-Market Look: Stocks In The News Before The Open

Amazon.com (AMZN), Macy’s (M), Wal-Mart (WMT), Target (TGT), Nordstrom (JWN)— Retail stocks will be on watch Monday as investors react to the latest sales numbers from this past weekend, the traditional kickoff to the holiday shopping season. Current information points to more upbeat numbers for online retailers like Amazon, and less sanguine results for traditional brick-and-mortar retailers.

Boeing (BA) — Boeing is expected to be the target of new World Trade Organization sanctions, according to The Wall Street Journal. The WTO is seen ruling that the aircraft maker was awarded illegal state subsidies for its new 777X jet.

Merck (MRK)— Merck won priority review status from the Food and Drug Administration in its application for a new use for its cancer drug Keytruda.

Walt Disney (DIS) — Disney’s “Moana” topped the Thanksgiving holiday weekend movie box office with $81.1 million in North American ticket sales.

Wells Fargo (WFC) — Wells Fargo has been sued by employees over the mutual funds contained in the bank’s retirement plans. The workers claim that Wells Fargo steered more than $3 billion into expensive funds run by Wells Fargo that underperformed.

Panera Bread (PNRA)— The restaurant chain’s stock was downgraded to “neutral” from “outperform” at Wedbush, although the firm kept the price target at $220. The stock has surged 13.5 percent over the past month.

AT&T (T) — AT&T is unveiling a new streaming service called DirecTV Now today. It will cost $35 per month and offer more than 100 live streaming television channels.

Activision Blizzard (ATVI) — Activision struck a new employment agreement with Chief Executive Officer Bobby Kotick, according to a Securities and Exchange Commission filing. Kotick’s salary will be cut to $1.8 million from $2.4 million as of January 1, but he could make more than $56 million in the video game maker’s shares depending on meeting certain performance targets.

H&R Block (HRB) was downgraded to ‘Sell’ from ‘Hold’ at BTIG LLC with a 12-month target price of $18.

Hilton Worldwide Holdings (HLT) and Marriott International (MAR +0.56%) were both downgraded to ‘Hold’ from ‘Buy’ at Evercore ISI.

Citigroup (C) was downgraded to ‘Hold’ from ‘Buy’ at Jeffries.

Darden Restaurants (DRI) was downgraded to ‘Hold’ from ‘Buy’ at Maxim.

Finisar (FNSR) was upgraded to ‘Strong Buy’ from ‘Buy’ at Needham & Co with a 12-month target price of $42.

ConocoPhillips (COP) was upgraded to ‘Buy’ from ‘Neutral’ at Goldman Sachs with a price target of $54.

Fiat Chrysler Automobiles NV (FCAU) was upgraded to ‘Buy’ from ‘Sell’ at Evercore ISI.

Mentor Graphics (MENT) was downgraded to ‘Neutral’ from ‘Outperform’ at Credit Suisse

Southwestern Energy (SWN) was upgraded to ‘Outperform’ from ‘Market Perform’ at BMO Capital Markets.

Stifel Financial (SF) was downgraded to ‘Neutral’ from ‘Outperform’ at Macquarie Research with a 12-month target price of $51.

Advanced Auto Parts (AAP) was added to the Focus List at JPMorgan Chase.

UDR Inc. (UDR) was upgraded to ‘Buy’ from ‘Hold’ at Evercore ISI with a 12-month target price of $38.

L Brands (LB) was upgraded to ‘Neutral’ from ‘Underweight’ at Piper Jaffray with a 12-month target price of $67.

Source: BarChart, CNBC, Bloomberg, FoxBusiness, Reuters

The Morning Look

Market Update:

Stock futures are lower ahead Monday’s open as traders return from a shortened holiday week. Looking forward, the highlights for this week are: OPEC’s next meeting, End of Month, and the always fun (and fake) jobs report.

Gary’s Thoughts: Can’t be! Futures are down? Thought market never going down again!

Economic Calendar:

  • Dallas Fed Mfg Survey 10:30 AM ET
  • 4-Week Bill Announcement 11:00 AM ET
  • 3-Month Bill Auction 11:30 AM ET
  • 6-Month Bill Auction 11:30 AM ET

Highlights:

  • Black Friday Online Sales Soared; While Brick and Mortar Store Sales Lagged
    Gary’s Thoughts:  Either or! 
  • Trump’s Tough Talk on Castro and Cuba Shows Big Shift From Obama
    Gary’s Thoughts: We will have our thoughts on Castro and importantly, the assinine reaction to Castro’s death by the few that have no clue and don’t get it…or maybe they just like brutal dictators…as long as they were not the recipients.

The Closing Look

Stocks were mixed on Wednesday as investors digested the latest round of economic data, including minutes from the Federal Reserve’s November meeting.  The Minutes showed the Fed still wants to raise rates in December. Separately, Durable Goods rose by +4.8%, beating estimates for +1.5%.

Gary’s Thoughts: 100% certainty of rate hike. Happy Thanksgiving to everyone.

Friday’s Pre-Market Look: Stocks In The News Before The Open

JCPenney (JCP) — JCPenney kicked off in-store Black Friday on Thanksgiving Day, opening its doors at 3 p.m. to long lines of shoppers. This year, the retailer offered to match customer purchases of over $10 and up to $500.

Wal-Mart (WMT) — The retailer’s shares edged higher in pre-market trading as Wal-Mart began offering Cyber Monday deals on Friday, coming off the announcement that it would significantly increase its online inventory. In other news, A Federal jury late Wednesday found that Wal-Mart failed to pay hundreds of California truck drivers minimum wage and awarded them $54 million in damages.

Amazon.com (AMZN) — Amazon’s shares rose slightly in thin pre-market trading as the online retailer offered a range of discounted electronics and other amenities to Black Friday shoppers.

Macy’s (M) — The department store welcomed some 16,000 shoppers to its Herald Square flagship location when it opened at 5 p.m. on Thursday, 1,000 more than last year.

Target (TGT) — Target saw its biggest day ever, experiencing double-digit growth as millions of shoppers visited its stores in-person and online to take advantage of some of the best deals the retailer has ever offered on select items. Shares inched higher in pre-market trading.

Nordstrom (JWN) — The fashion retailer opens at 8 a.m. on Black Friday, offering discounts of over 50 percent on select items like shoes and dresses.

Wells Fargo (WFC) — Wells Fargo asked a U.S. court to ask dozens of customers suing the bank for sales malpractices to resolve their disputes in private settlements outside of court.

Lufthansa — The German airline cancelled 830 flights in the third day of a pilots’ strike, bringing the total cancelled flights to over 2,600. Approximately 315,000 passengers have been affected.

Deutsche Bank AG (DB) — House Democrats warned federal watchdog agencies that President-elect Donald Trump might give special treatment to Deutsche Bank, the only major Wall Street institution that lends to him. The bank is in the midst of seeking a $14 billion settlement with the Justice Department.

Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) — The health care giant approached a Swiss biotechnology company, Actelion Limited, about a possible acquisition, Bloomberg reported Thursday.

Yum China (YUMC)— The newly spun off China unit of Yum Brands is in talks to purchase Daojia.com, a China-based food delivery company, for $200 million, according to Reuters.

Deere & Co. (DE) was upgraded to ‘Neutral’ from ‘Underperform’ at Longbow Research.

Molson Coors (TAP) was downgraded to ‘Neutral’ from ‘Buy’ at Bryan Garnier.

Eli Lilly (LLY) was downgraded to ‘Neutral’ from ‘Overweight’ at Atlantic Equities LLP.

Juno Therapeutics (JUNO) was downgraded to ‘Hold’ from ‘Buy’ at SunTrust.

Ctrip.com (CTRIP) reported Q3 adjusted EPS of 17 cents, better than consensus of 11 cents, and said it will buy Skyscanner in a $1.74 billion deal.

Lockheed Martin (LMT) received a $1,28 billion down payment from the Pentagon to continue production of the F-35 jet while negotiations continue a contract for 90 aircraft, worth as much as $7.19 billion.

Insteel Industries (IIIN) jumped over 5% in after-hours trading after it was announced that it will replace Littelfuse in the S&P SmallCap 600 Index as of the close of trading Monday, November 28.

Airgain (AIRG) fell 5% in after-hours trading after it announced a release of lock-up restriction on shares of common stock that will take effect after the close of trading Monday, November 28 and it will offer $40 million shares on behalf of selling holders.

Corbus Pharmaceuticals Holdings (CRBP) dropped almost 7% in after-hours trading after it filed an agreement to offer as much as $35 million in common stock via Cantor Fitzgerald.

 

The Morning Look

Market Update:

Stock futures are higher ahead of the open as consumers all over the country flock to the stores trying to grab Black Friday deals. The market will close early (at 1pm EST) today. When you have a chance, check out copper (JJC), check out FCX, check out AKS, NUE, X…check out BHP,RIO,SCCO…it is a commodity fest on this recent move as commodity prices are soaring. Our guess is this won’t be fleeting and could possibly have some legs but better wait (hope) for some pulling in.

Gary’s Thoughts:

Economic Calendar:

  • Weekly Bill Settlement
  • 2-Yr FRN Note Settlement
  • International Trade in Goods 8:30 AM ET
  • PMI Services Flash 9:45 AM ET
  • NYSE Early Close: 1:00 PM
  • Fed Balance Sheet 4:30 PM ET
  • Money Supply 4:30 PM ET

Highlights:

  • Black Friday Merchants See Americans Exhaling After Election
    Gary’s Thoughts:  You mean spending!
  • Venezuela’s Currency Just Had the Biggest Monthly Collapse Ever
    Gary’s Thoughts: Yet people still like Bernie Sanders and his socialism.