PRE MARKET

Market sells into close yesterday. Gets it back on a gap today.

Germany sells 30 year bonds negative…economy contracting…market up.

Central banks in hyper-drive now lowering rates and the president calling for more printing of money here after railing against Obama and Bernanke for their easy money.

TGT with the big gap on strong numbers. LOW with the strong gap on crappy numbers…on top of HD doing the same yesterday.

The past two weeks lows continue to hold. A break sends another stair step to the downside. No break today.

Fed minutes today to tell us what they thought weeks ago and Powell yapping at the end of the week.

 

PRE MARKET

Futures are flat. No really. No 300 points to the upside or 500 points to the downside.

We are not as thrilled as some with the latest jack to the upside. but we recognize Powell got some things going on this week and the great socialist President Trump jawboning Powell for not only lowering rates by a whole point but wants more printing of money. The president used to rail against Bernanke and Obama for their easy money. My how things change once in power.

Ok…socialist Gary? You are calling the president a socialist? Well,…giving away $28 billion of our tax dollars to farmers because of tariffs is socialism. Raising federal spending on 2 budgets by $600 billion is socialism. Running $1 trillion yearly deficits is socialism. Of course, there are levels of socialism…and this president is nowhere near the nightmares of Sanders and Warren but nevertheless, we expected much better. Hopefully he sees the error of his ways but so far, nothing doing.

Taking our time here.

RANDOM WEEKEND STUFF

Random thoughts:
Many have it all wrong on this Israel story. Many asking the question who wins and who loses. Many asking whether it hurts Israel with some saying it definitely will. Got some news for them. Israel, the miracle in the Middle East will continue to go on its merry way. 263 miles north to south, 71 miles east to west, bordering on the Med. A place where regardless of what is said by some, Jews, Christians, Muslims, every race, creed, color, gender live, play and work side by side. A place where the people and the economy thrive. A place where every major corporation and tons of businesses flock to. A place where past enemies are now friends because they know how great the people and the country are. A place where the first time we visited, we had to go into bomb shelters 7 times in 11 days because of rockets blasted overhead from right next door. There was a time where a rocket was taken out by the iron dome right over our head. There was a time we were eating dinner in a restaurant on the beach in Tel Aviv. The sirens went off. All the tourists ran into the bomb shelter. All the Israelis stayed at their tables. (Just imagine some bad guys in New Jersey lobbing a bunch of rockets into Manhattan! What would you do?) Talk about tolerance by Israel? Israel is one of the most magnificent places on this planet where so much history meets so much modernity. We can only answer any question by asking ourselves what would we do if we were running Israel knowing that right next door, there are those who if they could, would wipe you off the face of the earth? What would we do knowing that there were some that wanted to visit to do one thing, legitimize those that would hurt while delegitimizing the country we were running? What would we do if we saw that they refused to show up with a bipartisan delegation and show an itinerary with their visit to Palestine and not Israel while ignoring Israeli officials? What would we do knowing these people do not even acknowledge the existence of Israel or the Jewish state? Three words…take a hike. Nothing personal. Just take a hike. So while the media is still blaming this all on the president while giving certain people a pass, Israel is back to being Israel, the miracle in the Middle East. They have already moved on.
We love when political pundits do stand up comedy in trying to defend “their side” on the economy. Many were really trying to explain the inverted yield curve. Quite hilarious. The national media actually look like they are praying for bad things to happen to the economy. A reach? Don’t think so.
Navarro and Kudlow were all over the tube this weekend. Navarro with his usual b.s. trying to convince whomever that China is paying for the tariffs. Funny. How then did the consumer get “a gift” by delaying some very important tariffs? Slip of the tongue? Why did the president give $28 billion of our tax dollars to the farmers? Just asking.
And Kudlow…the man who used to hate tariffs, who used to hate deficits and debt…but now they don’t matter.
Speaking of that:
Throughout all their appearances, throughout all their interviews not one damn question on over $22 trillion of debt and $1 trillion yearly deficits brought on by this administration and the rest of the maniacs throughout the years. Not one damn question about how debt and deficits hamper growth and provide headwinds to growth. Not one damn question about what happens when the market finally decides the bill comes due. Remember, nothing is bad until the market says so.
The president is right. If Sanders or Warren get their hands on the White House, just cut the Dow in half. They are advocating the complete taking over of the economy as well as massive, gargantuan, gigantic spending and tax hikes that will crush the economy. You don’t believe us? Just watch and listen to them..We think Biden is talking a bit like them for the primary but are sure he governs more moderately so much less worried about him in comparison to the two Marxists. And no…Marxist is not a reach. Just listen to them. There is not an industry they haven’t mentioned for breaking up or taking over while there is not a tax hike they don’t like or a tax cut they do like.
Thursday morning, we told you we thought markets look to be putting in a near term lows. Everybody and everything had turned wildly bearish while major indices were bouncing off of what we would call vital support. On cue, markets rallied. Somehow we went from the world ending Wednesday to maybe everything is fine on Friday. Do you see what one decent day will do to people’s psyche? We suspect there is more to go in this rally/bounce but also suspect things are going to remain mushy. At best, we suspect range-bound. Let’s not talk about what’s worst.
We continue to believe if we have another leg down, the fed will be forced to cut before the next meeting. This rally enables them to hold off for now. We continue to believe there are too many tweets and too many words on the market and the economy from the man in charge. We continue to be less than thrilled that every time the market gets in trouble, the administration is on the phone with financial chieftains. This last go round, he called the three big bankers. Wish we were a fly on the wall.
Europe…we believe some of Thursday and Friday was the latest from the maniacs in Europe. Even though they have negative yields and even though they have printed trillions, they are going to go even more negative and print even more trillions. And in a stroke of genius…not…they are looking to use conjured up money to buy stocks. And they think that will help? Can’t wait until the Euro is .75 to the dollar. Remember, every market downturn will continue to be met with more and more aggressive central bank intervention both here and around the globe.
Lastly, Epstein! Jack Ruby did it.Talk about the fix being in…

SENTIMENT

—-Since many are asking…—-
—–Yesterday morning, we told you that sentiment had turned decidedly bearish and that it was this type of sentiment that leads to good bounces. Just because sentiment turns bearish does not mean markets will bounce. It just sets the conditions for a bounce.—–
—–This morning, futures are strong. There really isn’t any big news to account for it but are sure everyone will come up with a reason. Our take? Not only were markets stretched and extended to the downside but just about all our sentiment indicators had turned bright red.—–
—–Put/calls…without getting too technical, normally, people are optimistic. Normally, call buying is higher than put buying. Calls bet on the upside. Puts bet on the downside. Put buying went to an extreme level in past days…AFTER the drop. When EVERYONE goes one way bearish…—–
—–The national media, who has been spending all their time calling people racist, all of a sudden became mavens on the markets. Do you think they were talking bullish or bearish? When the national media who wouldn’t know a stock from a bond join in the fray talking crashes and recessions and yes, inverted yield curves…—–
—–The downtown Orlando Trump protesters who usually have signs calling for impeachment and claiming racism, had signs this week “TRUMP MARKET CRASH,” TRUMP RECESSION!” When the man on the street is all of a sudden all bearish and talking markets…—–
——Permabears came out of their caves all at once telling us the end of the world is AGAIN at hand. When these permabears show up…—–
—–The DOW was already down 2,000 points in a couple of weeks. When the Dow is already down 2,000 points in a couple of weeks and all these sentiment indicators show up…the conditions are such that good bounces could occur. Again, doesn’t mean it has to but it does mean conditions are such. On top of that, major indices were down to vital support. After coming straight down, a normal place to be defended.—–
—–So, we bounce this morning. Keep in mind, this is all shorter-term stuff. Keep in mind, we are still dealing with tweets. We are still dealing with contractions in important areas around the globe. We are still dealing with what bond markets may be saying. We are still dealing with paper thin trading. We will know a lot more on the strength of any bounce. We will know a lot more if the many areas and many names that just broke support can quickly retake support. For now and we mean, for now, we bounce. If at any time the recent lows do get taken out, get out the fork but looks like that is for another day…we think!——

RANDOM THOUGHTS ON EVERYTHING

Never forget one of our most important mottoes: IT’S NEVER BAD UNTIL THE MARKET SAYS SO.

Did you notice the national media seemed overjoyed by the big drop yesterday? They seemed happy talking about a possible recession. Must be watching a little too much Bill Maher. Speaking of that, capitalist Elizabeth Warren seemed all thrilled because recently she said a downturn is coming. Of course, if a downturn does come, much of it will be because of the debt capitalist Warrren and the rest created throughout the years. Cause the problem and then predict problems are just ahead.

After yesterday’s action, markets are massively oversold. Sentiment has become decidedly bearish. The permabears are all out calling for their end of world scenarios. Inverted yield curves…recessions…deflation…and all that crap. Just because markets are beyond oversold and sentiment is bearish, it does not mean markets have to bounce. It just means the conditions are there for a good bounce.

This whole inverted yield curve crap did not come out of thin air. It has been moving that way for quite a while. It was just a matter of when. The fact is this 2 year/10 year is problematic as it does have a great record.

Over 600 new yearly lows. This is amazing since major indices are only down in the mid-teens. It just tells you how weak markets are underneath the surface. We have highlighted for you how weak the small and mid-caps have been relative to the large caps. We have highlighted for you how weak foreign markets have been.

Overpriced, over-hyped, money losing IPOs are now being scorched. This leads us to another one of our mottoes: IN BEARISH MARKETS, THE CURTAINS COME DOWN ON MOST COMPANIES THAT LOSE MONEY. You may not know this but a ton of money losing IPOs that came public in the last year are now down 30,40,50% and even more. We have been quoted as saying UBER stock should be in the teens. It may be headed that way.

This latest drop started with President Trump putting the 10% tariffs on China…July 31. Up until then, major indices were near highs. As usual and as we told you, he has already pulled back the tariffs on the most important products but the market may just be pissed off enough that they don’t care. Too many flip-flops?

Cisco Systems smacked in after hours today.  On its China business: “We’re being uninvited to bid!” “We’re not being allowed to even participate anymore.” Don’t worry! It’s only Cisco Systems. Trade wars are easy!
We can blast the fed. The president should not. Think about this. The president called the number 1 money man in the world “clueless.” And he thinks markets will be happy about this? If the president stopped jawboning the fed, maybe they will cut sooner rather than later.
Speaking of that, we continue to believe an intra-meeting rate cut is coming if markets take another leg down. WITH THE 10 YEAR UNDER 1.6, THE FED HAS PLENTY OF COVER TO CUT NOT ONLY 1/4% BUT 1/2%. Every day they wait is another day they are way behind the curve. The fed cannot help the economy at this point but can possibly help markets…possibly!
If at any time the recent lows get taken out, expect institutions to recognize the next leg down leading to more selling.  We said these same words on December 7, 2018, right before another major leg down in that bearish phase.