WHEN MORT TALKS, I LISTEN

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Everyone’s favorite perma-bullish stand-in for Cramer, Fast Money’s Scott Wapner, seemed lost for words when Boston Properties CEO Mort Zuckerman laid down some basic truthiness on the state of the US economy “We have the most stimulative fiscal and monetary policy in the history of this country and here we are three years into the recession and it’s not ended. 

Continued

SOURCE: http://www.zerohedge.com

A FABULOUS GESTURE

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TAMPA, Fla. — In a symbolic gesture, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers signed Rutgers defensive tackle Eric LeGrand, whose playing career was ended by a spinal cord injury, on Wednesday morning.

LeGrand played for Tampa Bay coach Greg Schiano at Rutgers. In a game Oct. 16, 2010, against Army, LeGrand suffered fractures of two vertebrae and a spinal cord injury.

Continued

SOURCE: http://espn.go.com

04/30/2012: GARY ON NATIONALLY SYNDICATED INVESTORS EDGE RADIO BROADCAST

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http://archives.warpradio.com/btr/InvestorsEdge/043018.mp3

JUST LETTING YOU KNOW

Monster Beverage (MNST) has been a very strong stock with good earnings and revenue growth. Coming into today, the stock was 65.53. It had a breakout on an upgrade on January 17 and has basically not looked back. Earnings are going to be reported this week or early next week.

In the middle of the day, the Wall Street Journal reported that Coca Cola (KO) is in talks to buy Monster Beverage. Now, I have no idea where the Wall Street Journal got these reports from. But I do know that Monster Beverage stock went from 64.19 to 83.95 within 10 minutes. And, of course they stopped trading for a few minutes in between.

For a few hours, it traded around. It went to 84 and came down to 75. And then something happened at 3:55 PM ET when stock was at 76.05. Coca Cola announced that they absolutely have had no talks whatsoever with Monster Beverage.

Simple as that. Or not so simple.

Coca Cola announced that they have a distribution relationship with Monster in many markets. They’re always in contact with Monster to maximize the value of their commercial arrangements. But they stated that they are not in discussions to acquire Monster Beverage.

Well, the stock closed at 65, down 52 cents.

What’s the point I’m trying to make? Well, first of all it was 76 at 3:51 PM ET and it 84 at 11:57 PM ET. The stock finished down about 20% from the highs.

First off, if you got caught in this and bought it. I have a recommendation. I would write the SEC and have them investigate who leaked such information for where the Wall Street Journal reported this, moving that stock. Because, there’s thing that journalists do not have disclose their sources. But I gather in lawsuits, something’s gotta give.

But here’s the lesson. Pick your poison. I mentioned this thousands of times on this show. Pick your poison.

I can understand that you want to make money getting caught up in this news. But you’re going to get hour head handed to you…not all the time, but a decent amount of time. You also need to know that the person who came up with this so-called “whatever” is going to jail if it’s found out that he traded on the information he gave.

And as I looked at the news from the Wall Street Journal, their article sure as heck sounded like they knew what they what the heck they were talking about. Very weird.

I don’t play these things. And I must tell you that have missed a few darn good ones to the upside. But I’ve missed a lot of darn bad ones to the downside.

I think the Wall Street Journal should be held accountable to some extent, but won’t be more than likely.

And I just don’t know what to make of things like this except…pick your poison. 

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Gary Kaltbaum owns Kaltbaum Capital Management, LLC (“KCM”), an investment adviser registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The opinions expressed herein are those of Mr. Kaltbaum and may not reflect those of KCM. The information offered in this publication is general information that does not take into account the individual circumstances, financial situation or individual needs of an investor. The information herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we cannot assure its accuracy or completeness. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. Any reference to past performance is not to be implied or construed as a guarantee of future results.

 

04/27/2012: GARY ON NATIONALLY SYNDICATED INVESTORS EDGE RADIO BROADCAST

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http://archives.warpradio.com/btr/InvestorsEdge/042718.mp3

JUST LETTING YOU KNOW

This is a call to each and every one of you.

In case you did not know, the corrupt failures in Washington, D.C that have spent us into oblivion, to where all they do is deficit spend and have no care, no pain and no qualms whatsoever. And just print money to pay for these deficits, which will cause long term problems.

Guess what they’re talking about now. Yes…I’m not making this up.

They are now looking at retirement accounts. You see there’s about $18 trillion in retirement accounts. And now they’re trying to do something different with them. Why? That’s where the money is.

Do not let these crooks get away with it.

The only thing good that has ever been done is retirement accounts:

  • Our ability to take money and put it away on a tax deferred basis, whether it’s a regular IRA or a SEP, where you do not the taxes on it now, but you pay it later when you take it out.
  • Or a Roth IRA where do you do not get your deduction now, but you tax out tax free.

Now our wonderful sleazy scummy politicians want to get their greasy grimy hands on this. This week, the House Ways and Means Committee heard from several experts on the subject, now meaning there’s increasing focus on retirement savings. What they’re thinking about is changing the tax structure and the way you get the write-offs.

They are looking at:

  1. Taking away tax advantages for inherited IRAs, making the heirs empty them out and pay any income tax due within 5 years.
  2. Capping retirement plan contributions at $20,000 or 20% of compensation, when right now it’s capped at $50,000.
  3. Replacing exclusions and deductions for retirement savings with a tax credit

…and I could go on and on.

Kids, start yelling and screaming at your congressman, senator and whoever else.

That’s all I can tell you.

Every politician in Washington is an abject failure as stewards of our money and our Treasury. Our Treasury Secretary is an abject failure. Our President, an abject failure. George Bush, an abject failure. Hank Paulson, an abject failure. Ben Bernanke, a double abject failure…as stewards of our hard-earned taxpayer dollars.

And you have Barack Obama who simply took Federal spending from $2.5 trillion to approximately on average to $3.5 trillion approximately on average overnight and has kept it there–enriching his cronies, his buddies, and his friends. He lied to each and every one of you about who he was and what he’s about.

And now he’s across the country yelling and screaming, “do not change who’s running the show because they’ll take it away from you.”

Anyone who’s interested in balancing budgets now are “extremists, racists and uncaring people who want to throw out the poor in indigent. They do not care about children and the elderly.”

That’s the game. Ladies and gentlemen, except about 5 to 10 people in Washington, they’re all abject failures. And it’s getting worse by the day. Every day when I go to GaryK.com and look on the right side at this little clock that keeps on going DEBT, DEBT, DEBT and more DEBT put upon your children.

Now watch this.

Just stop reading for 10 seconds.

$417,000 was just added to our debt in the past 10 seconds.

You got me on that? Leave no doubt. At the end of this road, there will be a debt implosion. Because the people running the show do not give a crap about it. This president does not care about debt. He thinks it’s funny.

And they want to come after your retirement accounts.

Just letting you know. 

LISTEN TO GARY LIVE ON WEEKDAYS

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Gary Kaltbaum owns Kaltbaum Capital Management, LLC (“KCM”), an investment adviser registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The opinions expressed herein are those of Mr. Kaltbaum and may not reflect those of KCM. The information offered in this publication is general information that does not take into account the individual circumstances, financial situation or individual needs of an investor. The information herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we cannot assure its accuracy or completeness. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. Any reference to past performance is not to be implied or construed as a guarantee of future results.

 

04/26/2012: GARY ON NATIONALLY SYNDICATED INVESTORS EDGE RADIO BROADCAST

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http://archives.warpradio.com/btr/InvestorsEdge/042618.mp3

JUST LETTING YOU KNOW

IBD, called yesterday as a Follow-Through Day

I got a lot of emails about this. Here’s what that means.

William O’Neil studied the history of bull and bear markers and tried to figure out the defining characteristics that show up during bull and bear markets. His goal was harness these characteristics and figure out what drives these markets either to the upside or the downside.

What he realized is that every bull move throughout history has had something called a Follow-Through Day. The Follow-Through Day does not equal a bull move 100% of the time. But every bull move has started with one. Thus, we follow it.

Here’s what a Follow-Through Day is:

  1. You take any low in the market.
  2. 4 to 7 days later, you get a move on heavier volume than the day before on any of the major indices.
  3. Recently, it’s been between 1.7% and 2% for the move. These percentages change with markets and their volatility.
  4. Yesterday, IBD called a Follow-Through Day, even though it was only 1.4%.

I received a lot of emails overnight. Let me say two things:

  1. I believe it was last May that there was a Follow-Through Day of 1.4%.
  2. It failed miserably.

Does that mean this will fail? No. We’ll look for signs that it’s not…and that it will.

That’s all. I too question 1.4%, when they really want 1.7% to 2%. But I must tell you that every time I’ve tried to argue with O’Neil, I’ve lost. Basically, I’m going to look on this as a Follow-Through Day, until proven otherwise. That proof could come tomorrow. You could get huge distribution tomorrow and then you get a huge turn down. Typically, you know if a Follow-Through Day is going to fail within the first 3 days. If you start to get real distribution within 3 days of one, you’re in real big trouble. If you start to get big distribution on days 4 through 7, there’s less of a chance to fail, but still not good news.

But the other thing you want to see following a Follow-Through Day are stocks coming to life. And must tell you, on a day today – a bunch of stocks came to life, that includes a bunch of areas, a couple of areas, and some names. So I thought today was a pretty darn good day.

But you don’t just use one day as evidence. You continue look for more and more evidence.

Now the other part of the equation I got from the emails was: Could this just be end of month “Window Dressing?”

Sure. They’re very good at it and we do know we’re heading in to May. For me though, I’ve got to treat it as a Follow-Through Day until it shows me it’s not.

And that’s it.

And if you want a better understand of all this, get How to Make Money in Stocks by William ‘ONeil. Do a little bit of work and homework on your part. 

LISTEN TO GARY LIVE ON WEEKDAYS

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Gary Kaltbaum owns Kaltbaum Capital Management, LLC (“KCM”), an investment adviser registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The opinions expressed herein are those of Mr. Kaltbaum and may not reflect those of KCM. The information offered in this publication is general information that does not take into account the individual circumstances, financial situation or individual needs of an investor. The information herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we cannot assure its accuracy or completeness. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. Any reference to past performance is not to be implied or construed as a guarantee of future results.

 

04/25/2012: GARY ON NATIONALLY SYNDICATED INVESTORS EDGE RADIO BROADCAST

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http://archives.warpradio.com/btr/InvestorsEdge/042518.mp3

JUST LETTING YOU KNOW

We knew yesterday we were going to have a gap to the upside today off of Apple. But we also had Fed meeting today in which a whole bunch of people get together in a room and say, “We’re going to print money we don’t have to buy bonds to keep interest rates down in order to do this, that and the other thing….but don’t worry, everything’s going to be okay in the long run.”

There’s not a thing I like about what Bernanke is doing or what he’s done in the past. That’s my thought process. In any economy, if you print $3 trillion, keep interest rates at zero percent…you can get things on the move. It’s the repercussions of that kind of interference in markets that I worry about. And they interfered in the past, going to ridiculous rates, enabling the major bubble in hours. My worry is that they’re enabling another bubble here…and it only ends badly.

Apple…Some Very Big Numbers

Apple today, finished up 50. It’s like a 56 dollar stock going to 61 in one day. That’s all it is. Volume was tepid for a gap on earnings. Let me tell you a few tidbits here here:

  • Revenues were up 59% percent.
  • Earnings were up 92%.

These are very big numbers. On GaryK.com, I put up some numbers on Apple. Click here to view them. Just a fabulous story.

Here’s a couple more tidbits that even I didn’t know.

I woke up this morning and I turned on Bloomberg. And it turns out that Apple is 18% of the Nasdaq-100. The Nasdaq-100 today was up 2.7% and Apple was up about 9% today. That’s equals to about 1.7% of the 2.7% gain on the Nasdaq-100.

  • Apple is 12% of the Nasdaq.
  • Apple is 4% of the S&P 500.

What else happened in Apple is that a lot of things moved in sympathy. A bunch stocks that have stuff going into Apple got slammed this week because of the news out of “disappointing activation numbers from Verizon.” But they all turned-tail back to the upside today. So the SOX was up 9 and change off of the Apple news.

On top of that, the higher beta names got a bid, when they saw Apple have a bid.

Apple held the 10-week/50-day moving average (after undercutting it just for a day) and when back up above it. It hit 618 at 9:55 ET and closed at 610. And I wrote down this note to tell you:

In the near-term, I really don’t have a clue here. What one would hope for, is it to sit around a bit for a week, put in some sort of handle…and then head on upwards. That is the take.

There are 34 Apple buy recommendations, one sell with a 280 price target, and I think there were 6 holds…

That is the whole Apple story and I wanted to repeat it to you because I got a bunch of emails today asking me about Apple.

Not many companies come around that can stand the test of time. And the amazing thing about Apple is that it’s really a three product company, as whole. But what they’ve been able to do is the “cool factor” to make you get the next one that shows up. And they hold back just enough in each product, so that you’ll want to get each new version as they are released.

The other part of the equation is that they’re just in single digits worldwide on the smart phones while getting 75% of the profits.

So all around…a darn good day. 

LISTEN TO GARY LIVE ON WEEKDAYS

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Gary Kaltbaum owns Kaltbaum Capital Management, LLC (“KCM”), an investment adviser registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The opinions expressed herein are those of Mr. Kaltbaum and may not reflect those of KCM. The information offered in this publication is general information that does not take into account the individual circumstances, financial situation or individual needs of an investor. The information herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we cannot assure its accuracy or completeness. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. Any reference to past performance is not to be implied or construed as a guarantee of future results.

 

04/23/2012: GARY ON NATIONALLY SYNDICATED INVESTORS EDGE RADIO BROADCAST

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http://archives.warpradio.com/btr/InvestorsEdge/042318.mp3

JUST LETTING YOU KNOW

I received a bunch of emails. 60 Minutes had a show last night on Lehman Brothers. Now, I have not seen it, but I taped it. 9 out of 10 emails I have received went something like this, “Gary were you right!”

What I am being told is that corruption, felonies, misdemeanors, crimes, cover-ups—you name it were done in the financial markets. And, in all the emails I got, everybody mentioned the same thing…not a single person went to jail.

And some asked the question, “How can that be?”

How can nobody go to jail for these crimes that were committed?

What’s my answer?

I don’t know.

A lot of these crimes were done in plain sight. I still recall Citigroup—on purpose took a ton of bad loans of their balance sheet to make their earnings look better. I told you as it occurred. And then two years later they admitted to it. But nobody go in trouble.

So my answer is, I don’t know.

And therein lies my longer term worries. If you do not punish bad behavior, eventually somebody’s going to try to get away with that same bad behavior…and really nobody’s been punished.

So I don’t know what to tell you. But if you have a chance watch the recording of it.

That lets me segue into the other thing we found out today. As you know I have pulled no punches on John Corzine. I believe he’s a crook. I believe he committed a felony. If I saw him on the street, I’d say it right to his face.

It’s now being found out that I may be right. It’s now being revealed that his nuanced answers on Capitol Hill were just lies. John Corzine is a bundler of a half million dollars for Barack Obama (or more). Now what is wrong with this picture? A man who more than likely committed a massive felony where $1.5 billion of investors’ money is missing…and this administration happily, has no qualms about letting him be a bundler in raising capital for the election.

Any conflict of interest here, ladies and gentlemen?

Where is Eric Holder, our Attorney General on this? This is what I mean by a level playing field—there isn’t any.

I told you from day one, “Don’t worry John Corzine because if they had a video of you with a gun in a bank holding it up and the video was right in your face in place sight, you’d get away with it because you’re John Corzine…and that’s how it goes.”

And I’m sorry to say this ladies and gentlemen, it is what it is.

And I am as frustrated as you are. Do you know why?

I read here a little bit earlier:

A man…a very stupid man, went into a McDonalds and asked for a cup for water. Well, he cheated. He got soda instead. He needed to pay a dollar. When the manager noticed he was drinking soda, he said, “You have to give me a dollar.”

He didn’t.

The manager called the police. The police came and charged him with a misdemeanor.

Since he had another misdemeanor, they charged him with a felony.

And now this guy who stole a Coke…is in jail.

But not one person from Lehman, or Citigroup or Bear Stearns, or Washington Mutual or Countrywide Financial OR John Corzine are in jail.

Matter of fact, not one of them has been charged. And they committed crimes in plain sight.

I’m just letting you know, I’m going to keep fighting the fight.

Every single one of you continues to be persistent and tenacious in the fields that you’re in, for you and your family. And just try to put this in the back in your file manager. And we’ll watch the markets as they will dictate policy when all is said and done.

And there will be point in time when I’m going to just stop talking about this because it is pretty much on the nauseating side. 

LISTEN TO GARY LIVE ON WEEKDAYS

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Gary Kaltbaum owns Kaltbaum Capital Management, LLC (“KCM”), an investment adviser registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The opinions expressed herein are those of Mr. Kaltbaum and may not reflect those of KCM. The information offered in this publication is general information that does not take into account the individual circumstances, financial situation or individual needs of an investor. The information herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we cannot assure its accuracy or completeness. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. Any reference to past performance is not to be implied or construed as a guarantee of future results.

 

HE HATED TOO MUCH EXECUTIVE POWER…BEFORE HE LOVED IT

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WASHINGTON — One Saturday last fall, President Obama interrupted a White House strategy meeting to raise an issue not on the agenda. He declared, aides recalled, that the administration needed to more aggressively use executive power to govern in the face of Congressional obstructionism.

“We had been attempting to highlight the inability of Congress to do anything,” recalled William M. Daley, who was the White House chief of staff at the time. “The president expressed frustration, saying we have got to scour everything and push the envelope in finding things we can do on our own.”

For Mr. Obama, that meeting was a turning point. As a senator and presidential candidate, he had criticized George W. Bush for flouting the role of Congress. And during his first two years in the White House, when Democrats controlled Congress, Mr. Obama largely worked through the legislative process to achieve his domestic policy goals.

Continued

SOURCE: http://www.msnbc.msn.com

04/20/2012: GARY ON NATIONALLY SYNDICATED INVESTORS EDGE RADIO BROADCAST

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http://archives.warpradio.com/btr/InvestorsEdge/042018.mp3

JUST LETTING YOU KNOW

Crosscurrents

I’ve received no less than 50 emails today on Apple (APPL). It was down another 14 today. It went from 640 to 570, back to 610 and back to 570.

It’s correcting. That’s it. That’s all I can tell you. The market will dictate policy come Tuesday on where it’s going to go.

There’s a justice department deal going on with Apple right now which is potentially negative.

Verizon came out and there was talk that the number people signing up for Apple iPhones through Verizon was not as much as expected. That’s out there.

But as for Apple, there is nothing wrong with it except that it went too far, too fast and decided to pull in here. And we’ll get a better idea on Tuesday.

And, of course, Apple has a significant effect on the Nasdaq-100. I think it’s about 13% on the Nasdaq and I think even on the S&P these days.  So that was what drove today – a disappointing day even though the Dow was up 65.

If was to sum up this market, it would be one word: Crosscurrents. While some things are heading north, a lot of things are heading south. And there’s typically not a lot in between.

While the Semiconductors are breaking down:

  • A bunch of Housing names held the 50-day moving average today.
  • Some of the apparel retailers broke out today.

While the Financials are getting into some trouble, other areas are catching a bid.

I think we’re going to see more of that going forward.

LISTEN TO GARY LIVE ON WEEKDAYS

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Gary Kaltbaum owns Kaltbaum Capital Management, LLC (“KCM”), an investment adviser registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The opinions expressed herein are those of Mr. Kaltbaum and may not reflect those of KCM. The information offered in this publication is general information that does not take into account the individual circumstances, financial situation or individual needs of an investor. The information herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we cannot assure its accuracy or completeness. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. Any reference to past performance is not to be implied or construed as a guarantee of future results.

 

04/19/2012: GARY ON NATIONALLY SYNDICATED INVESTORS EDGE RADIO BROADCAST

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http://archives.warpradio.com/btr/InvestorsEdge/041918.mp3

JUST LETTING YOU KNOW

Right now we are in the midst of earnings season and there is a lot of jello moving on the plate. But I will make one little blanket statement today on the market overall. And as always, my friends, you get to decide what you want to do. I have a certain mantra when the market is getting a little iffy:

Anything breaking the 10-week/50-day moving average is basically a sell at that point in time. Sometimes, I’ll give a day or two and see what happens. But typically there is a reason.

In the past 3 weeks, the market has had distribution and basically what that means is that you are getting heavier volume on the sell side. We’re getting an inability of the market to rally and I say this letting you know that the Nasdaq’s down 4% and change. The NYSE is down 4%. The Russell 2000 is down a little bit more…about 6% and change.

So it’s no biggie. But it we always want to be careful for it to turn into a biggie. And what we do–knowing there’s so much intervention and manipulation and so much government caca on a daily basis that can move things— is just look at pictures of what things look like:

  1. Before they tend to go lower and
  2. Before they tend to go higher ….knowing that it’s not 100% correct, especially when you’re dealing with so much intervention and interference.

We use the two words “odds favor.” We think odds favor. And then we let it play out, know there is nothing written in stone. Knowing we are dealing without outside influences on a daily basis. We have to worry about Spain bond auctions! And, of course we’re in the middle of the election year.

I’ve got some main themes:

  1. The tailwinds are gone on the whole for the market. Headwinds are definitively within certain areas.
  2. To repeat, all the Commodity areas remain with headwinds. They continue to be unbelievably, amazingly over-the-top underperforming. And I say that because typically, in bull phases the Commodities will go along for the ride and, in this case, they did not. So that has not changed a bit. And that goes for Gold and Silver also. They are “avoids.”
  3. We’ve talked to you recently above a high in financials, a high in semiconductors, but that doesn’t mean the end of the world is coming. But they started pulling back. Two very important areas.

Going into more and more earnings, I’m just letting you know: They probably better not break the lows of the past couple of weeks.

That’s all I’m saying. We look for setups in the markets. We look for:

  • Bullish wedges
  • Bearish wedges
  • Breakouts
  • Breakdowns

And just so you know, these are not just turns, but they are the measure of fear and greed in the market. The wedges that are being traced out in a lot areas had better not be resolved to the downside. They had better not resolve themselves, breaking the past couple of week’s lows.

And that’s it. If they hold…good. If they don’t, we will get some more legs down and we’ll probably in the realm of a high single digits, low teens corrective type phase.

LISTEN TO GARY LIVE ON WEEKDAYS

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Gary Kaltbaum owns Kaltbaum Capital Management, LLC (“KCM”), an investment adviser registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The opinions expressed herein are those of Mr. Kaltbaum and may not reflect those of KCM. The information offered in this publication is general information that does not take into account the individual circumstances, financial situation or individual needs of an investor. The information herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we cannot assure its accuracy or completeness. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. Any reference to past performance is not to be implied or construed as a guarantee of future results.