08/01/2012: GARY ON NATIONALLY SYNDICATED INVESTORS EDGE RADIO BROADCAST

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http://archives.warpradio.com/btr/InvestorsEdge/073118.mp3

JUST LETTING YOU KNOW

They’re Working on the Market

Everybody waited with bated breath about what the Fed was going to do. And they basically said that economic growth has slowed down. We had no idea. And they said blah, blah, blah and this, that and the other thing.

And they said they would look at things and then act accordingly.

And what do they mean by “act accordingly” ladies and gentlemen?

Answer: They print money to buy bonds in order keep bringing interest rates down. They say that they’re trying to help the economy. But I know better. They’re working on the market.

They know they can’t help the economy. They’re already at zero percent interest rates. Listen to this. The yield on the 10-year is 1.53. That is tied to a lot of loans, specifically in mortgages. That means that mortgage rates have come down markedly. Loan rates have come down markedly. And it still hasn’t worked.

So they’re working on the market. And in an accident of truth, Bernanke in the past had mentioned that if we get the market up, we’ll get people feeling wealthy – and they may spend.

So that’s the story. You can go read what the Fed said.

I must tell you that I don’t watch financial television because I don’t want to hear other peoples’ opinions. But I turned it on and you know what they were talking about? The Fed’s language.

Ooh…they said “this” instead of “the.”

The said “it’s” instead of “it is.”

Must mean something.

I have not seen more juvenile, more imbecilic thought processes in my life.

Ladies and gentlemen, the Fed is printing money. Has been printing money. And will continue to print money, regardless of what they tell you. Ad infinitum. Or until the market stops them. That’s it. Don’t believe anything else. Right now, they’re in this “Operation Twist.” And I’m not even going to get into what it is.

The market really didn’t react that much. That makes me happy.

I hear that tomorrow, there is some kind of meeting or announcement from the European Central Bank (ECB) at 8:30 am. So we’ll get an idea from that.

And then, of course, on Friday is the Fake Jobs Number. To be blunt, they will fake the number as much as they can into the election – if they can.

ADP numbers yesterday were better than expected so maybe the number will be better. I heard that expectation was on the measly creation of 80,000 jobs. Just remember what I think: It’s all a bunch of B.S.

As I’ve told you on my radio show, they have taken millions of people, in the past few years, out of the workforce, which makes the unemployment rate come down. If you add them back in, it would be much higher. And, of course, I have asked, “Give me the list of people.”

There’s no list. They make it up. I’m not kidding you. They make these all-important numbers up.

The Market…Playing It Close to the Vest

Frankly, there really wasn’t a lot of range in the market today. The big loser of the day were the Transports which were down 101. That has to be watched closely. Conway (CNW) was the culprit, down 5 or 6 and change. If you look at the Transports, you will see that it’s been range bound for the better part of 9 or 10 months. The upper range happened from January into May. The lower range from May into July. And now we’re back into that lower range again…and you do not want to see the Transports break down ladies and gentlemen. That would not be good news at all.

The SOX was flat.

Oils stocks had some strength today.

After that…a lot of red. Housing…red. Gold…red. A bunch of growth stocks…red.

And a lot of other things…mixed.

They ain’t going to be easy. I’m playing it close to the vest.

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Gary Kaltbaum owns Kaltbaum Capital Management, LLC (“KCM”), an investment adviser registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The opinions expressed herein are those of Mr. Kaltbaum and may not reflect those of KCM. The information offered in this publication is general information that does not take into account the individual circumstances, financial situation or individual needs of an investor. The information herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we cannot assure its accuracy or completeness. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. Any reference to past performance is not to be implied or construed as a guarantee of future results.

 

07/31/2012: GARY ON NATIONALLY SYNDICATED INVESTORS EDGE RADIO BROADCAST

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http://archives.warpradio.com/btr/InvestorsEdge/073118.mp3

JUST LETTING YOU KNOW

Media Bias

The government is doing $1.3 trillion in debt per year.

It’s about 98 days until the election. Just remember, neither you nor I caused the deficits. It’s all them: George Bush…Barrack Obama and their people.

Before George Bush, deficits were under control. And then, the deficits went out of control and nobody did anything about it. John Boehner did nothing while George Bush was over overseeing it. And now John Boehner is the loudest voice while Obama does it. Well Obama’s making George Bush look like a piker. And he doesn’t care.

The Market: Here’s My Little Worry

Last Tuesday, the Dow was down 200. And then it rallied up a hundred points because a planted story to the media got out. Let me be clear. It WAS planted. That stuff doesn’t get out there by happenstance. And the plant was basically about how the Fed could be closer to doing something new, like printing more money. And then Wednesday was a non-event. Thursday morning the futures were down a little bit. The Bernanke’s compatriot, Draghi, announced that they were ready to do the same thing that our Fed’s doing.

The market gapped up 250 points on Thursday and then closed up around 200. And then Friday, the people from Italy, Germany and France all came and talked about what they’re going to do to defend the Euro to get things better. And then about 1:30p, bond buying was announced – which is printing of money. They’re going to print money and buy up bonds in order to drive interest rates down. The reason is that interest rates are skyrocketing because the real market said to Spain and Italy, “We’re not funding you anymore.”

So what’s my worry?

  1. That every move up in the market is because of what a Central Bank says or does.
  2. That it was the end of the month window dressing.

So we’re entering August.

The Fed is meeting and Wednesday they’re going to come out and announce whatever they’re going to do or not do. I have absolutely no idea what they’re going to do or what they’re going to say. And I have no idea how the markets going to react to it. The fact is they have been printing and easing and will continue no matter what they said.

But…

My thought process is that the market is so set up for the Fed to do something that – what happens if they don’t do something?

And what if they do something that the market reacts negatively to?

And of course, you have the European Central Bank (ECB) meeting on Thursday.

Then…Friday you have the “Fake Employment Numbers.”

And, of course, they’re fake. 8.2 unemployment? Supposedly, millions of people have left the job market in the past 3 ½ – 4 years. You add those people back and we’re at 11%. You add half of those people back, you’re still at 9 point something.

And I’ve written the Labor Department and asked them for the list of people that supposedly have left the workforce in order to make the unemployment rate look better. No answer.

So we’re going to get a lot of fun stuff over the next three days.

We’ll see how the market reacts.

Me? I’ve been playing this nauseating whipsawing news-driven trading range very lightly. I have not been anywhere near fully invested, because it doesn’t pay to be. That’s how I’m playing it. My stops are the usual. Breaking below the 50-day moving average. Or even before that.

And I’ll wait for a big fat pitch in the market. And the big fat pitch certainly ain’t a 250 point gap from the lows of a range, off of what somebody said. If we start to really get going and get progress, then we’re talking.

I’m not sure we’re there yet. But I’m open to anything.

LISTEN TO GARY LIVE ON WEEKDAYS 6-7 PM ON A STATION NEAR YOU AND AT GARYK.COM

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Gary Kaltbaum owns Kaltbaum Capital Management, LLC (“KCM”), an investment adviser registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The opinions expressed herein are those of Mr. Kaltbaum and may not reflect those of KCM. The information offered in this publication is general information that does not take into account the individual circumstances, financial situation or individual needs of an investor. The information herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we cannot assure its accuracy or completeness. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. Any reference to past performance is not to be implied or construed as a guarantee of future results.

07/26/2012: GARY ON NATIONALLY SYNDICATED INVESTORS EDGE RADIO BROADCAST

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http://archives.warpradio.com/btr/InvestorsEdge/072618.mp3

JUST LETTING YOU KNOW

Facebook (FB) reported in the aftermarket.

I didn’t say anything to you about this earning’s report because I didnt want to sway you…but you have known before the IPO what I thought of the over-the top valuation on this deal.

I was actually thinking that there was no way the investment bankers could be so dumb to bring something out at such a valuation on a company where business may have already peaked. I was thinking, maybe hoping, that maybe, just maybe, they were sandbagging and holding back numbers before going public and then produce big numbers after going public. In other words…do the Apple sandbag.

But no.

So one of the biggest IPOs in history continues to be a disaster.This is a black mark on the investment bankers. But they don’t give a crap. They got their fees. They don’t care about you, the retail investor. You’re a nobody.

I told you on my radio show that they did this throughout 1999…and they are doing it now. Hopefully, you were listening because we begged you not to touch Groupon, Facebook, Zynga, Pandora, Renren and all this other stuff they foisted upon you at ridiculous valuations.

Facebook: Let’s Start From the Beginning

Facebook’s growth…monumental.

Went from nothing to $4 billion in revenues.

Went from a few people at Harvard signing on to a billion people.

But here’s the problem.

The investment bankers on Wall Street are #@%@&. Time and time again, they have shown that they do not care about you, the retail public. They never think longer-term about reputation. It’s always about “short-term and fees.”

In 1999 they brought a bunch of crap public. You’re to blame for 50% of that because you bought it! They recognized that they were in a bubble and  anything that they would foist upon you, you would take.

They were able to bring companies public that had no revenues. Did you hear that? No revenues! And they would give it a $500 million market cap.

And guess what? Because of your buying, it would double and triple…until, of course, the curtains came down and it all went to zero.

They brought companies public THAT DELIVERED FOOD…BASED ON THE FACT THAT YOU ORDERED THE FOOD OVER THE INTERNET! What a concept!

They knew better. They brought a company public that sold you stuff on the web and lost money on purpose in order to get you to the site so that THEY COULD SELL ADVERTISING!

I could go on and on.

Fast forward to the past year, when I started to notice they were at it again…bringing companies public at ridiculous over the top prices where only one thing’s going to happen: You are going to be buried.

They bring Pandora out.

A great idea?. Personalized streaming music…like there’s no other place you can get that from.

The company does not make money. They brought it out with something like a $3 billion market cap, with $100 million in revenues.

The stock hit a high of 26 and it’s now 9.

Do I have to do Renren?

It hit a high of 20 and it’s now 3.

How about Groupon?

Accounting irregularities before they go public. It’s well known that merchants get paid back much slower than most other companies, and they are going to have to change that and that will impact them.

They still bring it public at 20, giving it a $12 billion market cap.

They hype it. It’s 31 the first day…close at 26.

It’s now 6.

They bring Zynga out like they are curing cancer.

It’s games! It’s just games. They bring it out at 10, hyped it up to 16.

It’s now 3…down 70% from IPO!

And it’s still got a $2.3 billion market cap.

So then Facebook.

Over the past four quarters, Facebook’s earnings have decelerated. Their revenues have decelerated. It is well known that people are using it less.

It’s the tiring out effect. There’s so many times that somebody’s going to go on Facebook and say, “I went to Publix and bought some lettuce and it was very green.”

I’m not saying this thing’s not going to be big. Frankly, the potential is huge.

But what did the investment bankers do?

They bring the company public with $4 billion in revenues…with a $100 billion market cap…with decelerating numbers.

So what I simply said to you was “pick your poison.”

I told you, my radio audience as well as on my tv appearances on Fox Business that  if I had to value this company and I was the investment banker, I would have brought it out at $15 and with less shares. Which means on price, I would have brought it out at 10…or less.

No, they bring it out at 38 like it’s the 2nd Coming. You guys open it up at $42. Thankfully, you recognize it and it closed at 38.

It’s 26.85 today.

And now in the aftermarket it’s under 24.

Everybody who has invested in this has lost money. Most of the secondary people who got it before the IPO are losing money.

This must be a lesson to you about price as well as on these investment bankers who never ever learn from their mistakes. Without another massive bubble, this was a gimmee to be a disaster.

How do I know this? Because they did the same thing in 1999. Fast forward, they’re trying to do it again.

And just so happens that Facebook is a biggie.

And I’m sitting here looking at Zynga trading at 3, down from 10. Groupon at 6 1/2, down from 20.

I want to throw up. Not for me because I don’t own any, but for you guys who may have been jumping on these things.

And I use Facebook. I love Facebook. I go on it. I’ve got a page. I found some old friends from college and high school there. Nothing I am saying here has to do with the company. It has everything to do with price.

These investment bankers screwed you…and they knew it. They knew you were getting screwed at the price they were bringing it out at. They were in hopes another bubble was being created. There were some analysts that had the nerve to talk positively of the stock…which was absolutely nuts.

Anyway…back to my point. Pick your poison and do some homework. Just a short glance at the numbers would have kept you out. Facebook, even at these levels is still at about a $55 billion market cap. Just ask yourself whether right now you would pay $55 billion for this company. Again, this is not an indictment on Facebook the company. It is an indictment on whoever priced it at this number where no one had a chance. 

LISTEN TO GARY LIVE ON WEEKDAYS 6-7 PM ON A STATION NEAR YOU AND AT GARYK.COM

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Gary Kaltbaum owns Kaltbaum Capital Management, LLC (“KCM”), an investment adviser registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The opinions expressed herein are those of Mr. Kaltbaum and may not reflect those of KCM. The information offered in this publication is general information that does not take into account the individual circumstances, financial situation or individual needs of an investor. The information herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we cannot assure its accuracy or completeness. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. Any reference to past performance is not to be implied or construed as a guarantee of future results.

07/25/2012: GARY ON NATIONALLY SYNDICATED INVESTORS EDGE RADIO BROADCAST

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http://archives.warpradio.com/btr/InvestorsEdge/072518.mp3

JUST LETTING YOU KNOW

Apple

Apple closed down today 25.95. Let me be clear. That’s like a 60 stock dropping 2.59. So keep it in perspective.

Apple missed by a mile. Earnings and revenue decelerated huge. One would think the stock would be down 20% on this news. But no. It was down about 4 ½ percent on the news. Apple also lowered next quarter’s earnings markedly, which they usually do every quarter. What they are saying is that people are putting off buying because they are waiting for the iPhone 5 to come out.

Okay, I’ll buy that and I think that’s probably true. But we also were told how people jumped all over the iPhone 4S and I’m really wondering to myself (and this not bearish talk) at what point are the upgrades not going to be good enough to get everybody to just jump all over a new phone every time. Just a question to ponder.

Anyway, Apple affected some areas of the market today and on a technical basis, Apple broke back below the 50-day moving average and I would call it just in the middle of a range, going back to late-March.

And, of course, we’ll see what the following quarters come up with. Now rumor has it that the iPhone 5 will be announced and I guess it’ll be ready in October. The problem is that’s the 4th quarter, which gets reported in January. We’ll see how it plays out.

Frankly, I wouldn’t be a buyer of Apple now. If I owned it, I don’t really think there’s anything to do just yet. There is support at 565, 548 and 522.

Also of note, just letting you know…

There are a lot of chart breaks going on. I know yesterday that the crooks on Wall Street—the manipulators—floated another “Fed is coming to the rescue in the next week” and as soon as that was put on the Web at 3:30p ET yesterday, the market, which was down 200, only finished down 100.

The Fed meetings, I believe, are July 31st and August 1st and they will decide on something maniacal again. You know what I believe long-term about the moves that they are making. Short-term, anything is possible.

I’m just letting you know right now that the tape remains a mess. More and more areas are going “poof.” More and more stocks are breaking important levels of support. And will just urge you right now to go slow.

The market will eventually come out of this. We know not when or from what point. But we keep a close watch on it every day for accumulation vs. distribution in the major averages, sectors and individual stocks…and so far nothing doing.

We’ve had a lot of jello moving on the plate this earnings season. Got some stocks acting well off the earnings reports.  And lots of stocks acting well and really busting down off of earnings reports.

Very important that you pay attention to those earnings reports…or else. It is summertime. There is a lot of news. There is a lot of interference and market manipulation going on with these rumors and…yes, they are done on purpose.

And we’ll get through it.

Coal Stocks

The coal stocks continue to go into the abyss. The Stowe Coal Index (COAL) ETF has going from 51 to 22 in the past year. Patriot Coal (PCX) has filed for bankruptcy. Arch Coal (ACI) has gone from 28 to down to 5. Alpha Natural Resources (ANR) has gone down from 48 to 6.

Peabody Energy has gone from 60 down to 19.

Are you catching the drift here?

This illustrates why we talk sectors here and not just the market as a whole. There are lot of areas over the past year that have been absolutely bludgeoned. So it’s very important to pay attention to sectors and sub-sectors that we continuously follow and it’s important that you do also. 

LISTEN TO GARY LIVE ON WEEKDAYS 6-7 PM ON A STATION NEAR YOU AND AT GARYK.COM

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Gary Kaltbaum owns Kaltbaum Capital Management, LLC (“KCM”), an investment adviser registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The opinions expressed herein are those of Mr. Kaltbaum and may not reflect those of KCM. The information offered in this publication is general information that does not take into account the individual circumstances, financial situation or individual needs of an investor. The information herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we cannot assure its accuracy or completeness. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. Any reference to past performance is not to be implied or construed as a guarantee of future results.

07/23/2012: GARY ON NATIONALLY SYNDICATED INVESTORS EDGE RADIO BROADCAST

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http://archives.warpradio.com/btr/InvestorsEdge/072318.mp3

JUST LETTING YOU KNOW

Aurora, Colorado

There were a couple things I thought about this weekend.

The first was those people that jumped on other people to protect them from the bullets and took a bullet for others. Think about that. You’re at a movie and out of nowhere, somebody’s shooting. And your first thought and your first decision is to protect others. Some of them weren’t even loved ones. An amazing story of courage.

And, of course at the same time, an amazing story of cowardice.

And they can plead insane – you name it. This guy planned it out. He’s evil. He’s a coward. He’s a punk. And I don’t know where else to go with this except to say, make sure you hug your children.

The Markets

Needless to say, it was a market that was trying to move above a little resistance and failed miserably. And now the market has tucked its head back into a trading range like a frightened turtle. As you know, even in the move up, I told my radio listeners that I did not like what was driving the move: Food, Drug, Beverages, Tobacco, Household products, Utilities, Telecom utilities, municipal bond funds, and REITs.

These are your defensive issues and believe the Big Money crowd is not investing there.  I believe they’re parking money there.

Just remember. Most of the Big Boys have to be 95% invested at a minimum and have very little cash. So we can recognize when they’re selling risk to buy into defensive, by watch the action. Typically, it is not good news. Typically, when defensive issues are being bought up, it is forecasting something not so good such as slow downs in the economy and outright recessions. And many times it is presage of a pretty good downturn .

 I also told you on the move up, it was the worst areas, like the Oil and Semiconductors, where it felt like there was a lot short-covering.

I also told you, at the same time, a lot of growth names were breaking down. But major average remained range bound.

So fast forward to Friday and today…and nothing but gross.

Today could have been a lot worst. We opened down huge and got back a little more than half of it.

Be careful, though. There are many who would say, ooh…we got back a lot of the down move today and that’s good news. I’m not so sure.

Chipotle and Intuitive Surgical

Chipotle (CMG) was down around 90 on Friday and down another 11 today. Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) was down about 45 and was down another 21 today.

I want to explaine to you how things work when a ”leading name that has to be owned” in which “nothing can ever go wrong” – goes wrong.  Listen carefully.

All stocks have a life cycle. You never know how long. But studies have shown that most big leaders will last for about 9 to 15 months.  But, of course, there’s occasions where an Apple (AAPL) has gone from 15 up to 600. And, of course, in the 1990s you had a few technology names that went up monumentally throughout those years. But all things do come to an end. You never know when. And typically they come to an end, almost the same way. So listen up:

Near the end, nobody thinks anything can go wrong. These are the big leaders. “Teflon stocks” for lack of a better word.

A stock goes through a life where it’s going up and up and up. All things are well in good. Chipotle came out at around 45 and initially ran to 150. Then came the bear market in 2008 and that took it down to 37 again.

Since the low in 2008, it went up almost 450 on the back of continuing to open stores around the country and elsewhere and with decent same store sales. And throughout that process, the Big Money crowd kept adding and adding…until they own everything.

And right when Chipotle reported their numbers, I saw that the Fidelity Contra Fund had 2.5 million of 31 million shares. And many other funds owned the stock as well. These are growth funds and they are also known as momentum funds.

They will ride something until death. But there’s usually a few months of distribution where the stock is held up even though you seeing signs of selling. And analysts are saying don’t worry, everything’s okay.

…Until finally they report a number they report a number that, for whatever reason, the market hates. And if you look at Chipotle, it topped out in April on big volume. They rallied it up on no volume. Dropped again and then sat around for many weeks, bumping its head above the 50-day moving average and then below.

But then something happened. On 6/27 and 6/28, the stock got schmered from 415 to 370 on very heavy volume. So already it was starting to underperform some. And it stated trading what I called wide and loose.

What happened then? The market got a little better. It rallied up on no volume. Saw a couple upgrades a couple weeks before earnings. And then the market didn’t like earnings and the stock closed at 405 and opened at 345 and finished at 320 and it’s now 306.

You know what that action is over the course of Friday and today? All these big guys with that stock knew they had to get out. Because once a growth stock tops and tops for good – it doesn’t come  back 90% of time.

And, of course, the same thing happened to Intuitive Surgical. 

LISTEN TO GARY LIVE ON WEEKDAYS 6-7 PM ON A STATION NEAR YOU AND AT GARYK.COM

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Gary Kaltbaum owns Kaltbaum Capital Management, LLC (“KCM”), an investment adviser registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The opinions expressed herein are those of Mr. Kaltbaum and may not reflect those of KCM. The information offered in this publication is general information that does not take into account the individual circumstances, financial situation or individual needs of an investor. The information herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we cannot assure its accuracy or completeness. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. Any reference to past performance is not to be implied or construed as a guarantee of future results.

 

07/19/2012: GARY ON NATIONALLY SYNDICATED INVESTORS EDGE RADIO BROADCAST

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http://archives.warpradio.com/btr/InvestorsEdge/071918.mp3

JUST LETTING YOU KNOW

I get so many emails. I don’t watch anybody. I don’t ready anybody. But what’s sent to me and what I do see because I’m on the web, is that a bunch of people are talking “depression.”

There are people calling for crashes in the market. There’s out about depression and crashes. And about the end of Europe.

Now it’s very important that you recognize that I tell you on my radio show, that if they don’t stop, the market’s going to stop them because of debt.

But there’s no way of predicting depressions and recessions. I do think they’ll be a day of reckoning.

In 2006 when I was all over the place calling for a housing and credit bubble, I didn’t know when it was going to pop. Not a clue. I think there’s a government debt bubble. Not just in the U.S. but in many places. I don’t know when that’s going to pop. I have a thought process that it will.

Just be careful about dire warnings. We’re not in a depression. By the numbers, we’re not in a recession. I think we have an anemic economy built on some stilts and I wonder what happens if the Fed ever goes to normalcy.

And, of course, I worry about when we’re going to pay down that debt.

But if you read some of that stuff, you’d wouldn’t even be looking at the market. You’d be taking you money and running if you read some of that stuff.

You wouldn’t believe what some of them are saying…4,000…5,000 on the Dow…the end of the dollars a we know it. And I could go on and on.

The bottom line is, tech which was in a bearish market lit up on what I consider to be poor earnings for a lot of names. But sometimes when things are going down, they get washed out. When the bad news finally comes out, they start rallying.

That’s what’s happening here.

On top of that, some of the worst, down and out areas are no longer going down and are actually rallying.

20 some odd percent of the S&P are the energies. Guess what energy stocks are doing now because oil prices are now starting to kick into gear on the upside. Now eventually that’s not good. In fact, I think oil went from 90 to 92.60 today on a barrel. And that helps the market.

The Semiconductors…dead in the water…basically they had crashed. And now in the past 2 days, they’re up 7%, which helps the Nasdaq.

Is this just a reaction that’s going to last a few days and then turn back down.

Could be. Because I’ve got news for you. The earnings stink.

But you never know. And you never know what the market is potentially forecasting. The only thing I do know is that in the past couple days and today, the market got a bid.

So we want to look for leadership. Wait for earnings to come out. See the reaction. And go from there.

I do not think it’s going to be easy. I think the market’s a pain the rear end. 

LISTEN TO GARY LIVE ON WEEKDAYS 6-7 PM ON A STATION NEAR YOU AND AT GARYK.COM

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Gary Kaltbaum owns Kaltbaum Capital Management, LLC (“KCM”), an investment adviser registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The opinions expressed herein are those of Mr. Kaltbaum and may not reflect those of KCM. The information offered in this publication is general information that does not take into account the individual circumstances, financial situation or individual needs of an investor. The information herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we cannot assure its accuracy or completeness. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. Any reference to past performance is not to be implied or construed as a guarantee of future results.

07/18/2012: GARY ON NATIONALLY SYNDICATED INVESTORS EDGE RADIO BROADCAST

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http://archives.warpradio.com/btr/InvestorsEdge/071818.mp3

JUST LETTING YOU KNOW

We are in the midst of earnings season. Here’s what’s going on.

Intel (INTC) missed earnings and lowered guidance. The stock rallied up strongly and led the Semiconductors to its best day in a while as they held very important support at around the 350 area.

Technology stocks have been very week in comparison to other areas of the market. The Semiconductors have also been very week in comparison to other areas of the market. The fact that the bad news has been anticipated and these stocks are rallying off of that bad news is potentially good news.

Remember, bull phases are made up of situations where good news is bought up big time and bad news is ignored and thing still go up.

Bear phases are when bad news is trashed and good news is even sold off.

If companies are missing earnings and lowering guidance and the stocks were hit hard over the past 12 weeks, are being bought up with a fervor, it tells you that the stock has already reflected the bad news.

Another example: IBM with its revenues down year over year is being bought. It’s partially because a lot of these stocks are down a lot and they’re rebounding.

For sure, there’s a ton of areas that are in bad shape and remain under pressure and in bad shape. But the action of the past couple of days relieves a lot of that. But don’t think this is going to be easy. But there’s no doubt in my mind that:

  1. The Fed is printing money now
  2. The Fed knows this is an election year and that they have a job to do.

So my belief system is that, until proven wrong, the market is set to do better. That means, from here, they’re going to have to show me that they want to sell this thing down.

I say that knowing that there a lot more earnings to come out.

But right now the market does not care.

The first thing you to need to look at is the Semiconductor Index (SOX). It’s been dreadful. It went back to an area that held in November and December of 2011 as well as early-June of 2012. Even with Intel lowering numbers, it was bought up like crazy. Why? As they say, “All the news was already in the stocks.”

For now. To be revisited. 

LISTEN TO GARY LIVE ON WEEKDAYS 6-7 PM ON A STATION NEAR YOU AND AT GARYK.COM

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Best of Investor’s Edge
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Gary Kaltbaum owns Kaltbaum Capital Management, LLC (“KCM”), an investment adviser registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The opinions expressed herein are those of Mr. Kaltbaum and may not reflect those of KCM. The information offered in this publication is general information that does not take into account the individual circumstances, financial situation or individual needs of an investor. The information herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we cannot assure its accuracy or completeness. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. Any reference to past performance is not to be implied or construed as a guarantee of future results.

07/17/2012: GARY ON NATIONALLY SYNDICATED INVESTORS EDGE RADIO BROADCAST

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http://archives.warpradio.com/btr/InvestorsEdge/071718.mp3

JUST LETTING YOU KNOW

Ben Bernanke spoke on the Hill today. You already know I’m not a fan of anything he has done. This is the man that oversaw the lenders. He enabled lenders to hand out money to people that couldn’t afford the first payment. This is a man that saw nothing bad coming in the housing, lending and financial debacle. And this a man whose only answer to problems that were caused by too much leverage and debt…is just adding more leverage and debt. On Capitol Hill today, it reminded me of “One Flew Over the Cuckoo’s Nest in which they’re sitting around the table playing poker.

httpv://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rwaz5H7C1bs

Chuck Schumer, a Senator from New York, another miserable political failure, was almost begging Bernanke for more stimulus. Questions from some of the other people, both Republican and Democrat made absolutely no sense whatsoever.

But the one thing I was thinking about with not only Bernanke, but Obama and Geithner? They’re all taking credit for saving the day and for saving GM and saving the country from depression. And they give no credit to the people of this country working their rear ends off. And I’m thinking to myself, everything that has occurred over the past 3 ½ years was at a cost of $8 to $9 trillion. You take the $5 -$6 trillion of deficit spending that Obama has done. And then add the few trillion that Bernanke has printed to order to buy bonds so that interest rates are lower, so loans are lower…so we can juice the economy back up. But everything’s at a cost. There’s a problem. That’s all payback. The next 6 years of taxpayer dollars have already been spent. There is no way we recover from that. Count to 25. Ooops…$1 million was just added to the deficit.

The trillions of dollars of deficits that have occurred in the past 3 ½ years really started under George W. Bush. Before George Bush, deficits were under control. We were hit by 9-11 and George Bush did a great job of getting the economy back on track because he did the opposite of Barack Obama. He did a little stimulus. But mostly, he lowered taxes amongst a few other things. But then he went on a spending binge and people like John Boehner who are now beside themselves about the horrible spending of Barrack Obama, didn’t say a word about the spending under George Bush. And, of course, Barack Obama campaigned and said that “under my watch I will not treat your tax dollars like Monopoly money and I will go line by line through the budget.”

He lied. Everything he represented himself as, was a lie.

So…at what cost? There’s $5 to $6 trillion that Obama spent that the government never received… that will have to be paid back.

And speaking of Bernanke, Bernanke talked about the things he has done that has helped the economy. He has been the worst possible person for the economy. Do any of you believe that it’s because of him that the economy came back from ’08? No, it’s because it’s the 200 million of us that go to work every day. It had nothing to do with him.

It’s us. And now we get to listen to this stuff and now, at what cost?

In just the past 3.5 years, $5 to $6 trillion of our taxpayer dollars that have not even been earned yet is gone and will never do anything for anybody. I was just marveling at the abysmal failures in Washington DC, on TV in plain sight. Everyone of them – abysmal moronic failures that have brought us to this point of $15 to $16 trillion in debt.

And some of them are running victory laps.

And then I watched Bernanke say, it really doesn’t cost anything. He said that by buying Treasury Securities, it puts upward pressureon the prices of those securities and downward pressure on the yields – without affecting overall the size of the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet?

That’s a lie. The balance sheet of the Fed has exploded. He did it by printing money. And it’s sickening to watch. And it’s just doubly sickening to watch this president campaigning for another four years based on nothing he did over the past 3 ½ years. What is he going to say?

“Vote for me because I increased the deficit by $5 1/2 to $6 trillion.”

The Economy

Lastly, there is a group of people in my industry that are going around saying that our economy is in a depression. There’s a good amount of them that are out there saying that we’re in a recession.

Now let me be clear on my thoughts.

We’re not in a depression. We’re not even close. If the economy was in a depression, the Dow would be at 6000.

I don’t know what these people are trying to sell you. But we’re as far away from a depression as a depression can be, especially if they’re trying to compare today to the 1930s.

And we’re not even in a recession. A recession is defined by two quarters of down GDP in a row. We haven’t had one.

What we’re in is an anemic muddle through economy. It’s not good news. We need a lot better. Unfortunately, some are just trying to sell books. Have you ever seen a book written with the title ” MARKET IN TRADING RANGE!”? No…it’s always DOW 36,000 or THE NEXT GREAT DEPRESSION. Don’t buy into any of it.

LISTEN TO GARY LIVE ON WEEKDAYS 6-7 PM ON A STATION NEAR YOU AND AT GARYK.COM

6-7 pm EST

Best of Investor’s Edge
Saturdays 1-2 am EST

Gary Kaltbaum owns Kaltbaum Capital Management, LLC (“KCM”), an investment adviser registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The opinions expressed herein are those of Mr. Kaltbaum and may not reflect those of KCM. The information offered in this publication is general information that does not take into account the individual circumstances, financial situation or individual needs of an investor. The information herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we cannot assure its accuracy or completeness. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. Any reference to past performance is not to be implied or construed as a guarantee of future results.

07/16/2012: GARY ON NATIONALLY SYNDICATED INVESTORS EDGE RADIO BROADCAST

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http://archives.warpradio.com/btr/InvestorsEdge/071618.mp3

JUST LETTING YOU KNOW

We had a good day on Friday. Today, there was a little pullback. I think the main stance continues to be: Choppy, Choppy, Choppy, Choppy.

Bullish Monday, bearish Tuesday. I think the market’s going to be all over the map. Just remember that we’re in the midst of earnings season. Just put your seat belts on. There will be stocks gapping to the upside and stocks gapping to the downside and our job is to stay in gear with them. Why? Because typically, stocks that react well off of earnings reports vs. stocks that don’t will do better in the coming quarter. I’m not making that up. That’s how it works.

On Friday, there was very good reaction to a couple Financials, JP Morgan and Wells Fargo. I have to tell you that today, JP Morgan got hit. Wells Fargo was up a smidge. So nothing is written in stone. Take your time. Recognize that this is not a bull market. But also recognize that this is not what I’d call a big bear market, except in some areas.

I continue avoid anything Commodities, though they’re bouncing hear a little bit. We’re getting a little bit of money flowing into the oils here. But overall, I don’t think it’s the place to be.

The strongest group has been housing. It probably needs to pull in a little bit.

We’re getting a decent bid Agriculture because of the prices shooting up. If you look at the chart of AGU, CF, and MON, that’ll give a little bit of indication on what’s happening out there with those areas. Whether or not it continues —  I don’t know. Just remember, you’re dealing with a commodity and that can change suddenly. But I can tell you right now, those suckers are on a run.

Facebook Cup and Handle?

Last week I received probably 50 to 100 emails on Facebook asking, “Gary is that a Cup and Handle?” I answered all of them the same way. Not to my eye. But if Facebook can break about 32 or 33, it’ll be bullish near-term. But also mentioned to everyone of those emails, “Dudes, just look at valuations. You know what I think there. I know valuations can get out of whack, but I’m sorry, we’re not in a bubble like 1999. We should not have a $70 billion market cap with $4 billion in revenue and a slowing business. And, of course, we’ll see if their slowing in the next few quarters. Anyway, Facebook was down 2 and change. So if some of you were thinking it’s a good pattern, it’s rolling over here. I would just stay away from and for earnings to come out to get an understanding.

LISTEN TO GARY LIVE ON WEEKDAYS 6-7 PM ON A STATION NEAR YOU AND AT GARYK.COM

6-7 pm EST

Best of Investor’s Edge
Saturdays 1-2 am EST

Gary Kaltbaum owns Kaltbaum Capital Management, LLC (“KCM”), an investment adviser registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The opinions expressed herein are those of Mr. Kaltbaum and may not reflect those of KCM. The information offered in this publication is general information that does not take into account the individual circumstances, financial situation or individual needs of an investor. The information herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we cannot assure its accuracy or completeness. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. Any reference to past performance is not to be implied or construed as a guarantee of future results.


07/13/2012: GARY ON NATIONALLY SYNDICATED INVESTORS EDGE RADIO BROADCAST

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http://archives.warpradio.com/btr/InvestorsEdge/071318.mp3

JUST LETTING YOU KNOW

On Wednesday, I said to you on this show, that the worst areas were actually setting up decently here to move higher in the short-term (not the long-term because you never know). I mentioned to you the financials and the oils.

And, of course, yesterday they gapped them down and then reversed them. But they still kept them in that good pattern. Remember that things can’t go up or down unless they’re set up to go up or down.

The oils and financials have been in a bear market. But recently, the market has acted better and it’s been rallying up a little bit. And then we six down days in a row. But that enabled certain things to pullback.

If you look at a watch or a clock…11 o’clock down to 5 o’clock…a move that way, after a move up, not breaking the lows…we call that a bullish wedge. And does not mean that, it has to break to the upside off that wedge.

You never know.

And you never know what the catalyst is going to be, though we knew we were entering into earnings season.

Today, the Financials and the Oils…both made that move off the bullish wedge. Those two areas are 40% of the S&P. Thus the market had a pretty decent day, albeit volume was a joke.

When you have a chance, go look at what we look at. And remember, we’re just talking about the short-term. The Oils and the Financials are not in a bull market, but they’re in a recovery market. We’re better off the lows here, but they have more work to do.

Courtesy of Stockcharts.com

But this is the type of action that improves the market. Look at the XLF. It went up and then pulled back on the declining 50-day moving average and then popped off it into the upside.

Rumour!

There was a rumour that the European Central Banks were buying Euros today. Thus, the Euro had a better day.  That means that all the multinationals tied to the dollar had a good rally. When the dollar is weaker, they rally. Remember that I told you on my radio show that IBM was tied most? It was up 3 today which was worth around 28 Dow points. And a bunch of others lifted also.

So a good day in the market today. I don’t have anything bad to say, except that volume was an absolute joke. And I would like to say that it’s a Friday during the summer. Well, three days were during the summer and volume was a lot heavier. That’s the only thing that throws a little water on today the action today. But as for all the major indices:

  • The Nasdaq went a little below the 50-day moving average yesterday and got back above it today.
  • The Nasdaq-100 got a little back above the 50-day today.
  • The NYSE held…and by the way there a lot of oils in the NYSE.
  • The Russell 2000 held.
  • The Dow held and got above the 50-day.
  • And the S&P 500 did the same.

That’s good news near-term, walking into a massive amount of earnings reports next week.

LISTEN TO GARY LIVE ON WEEKDAYS 6-7 PM ON A STATION NEAR YOU AND AT GARYK.COM

6-7 pm EST

Best of Investor’s Edge
Saturdays 1-2 am EST

Gary Kaltbaum owns Kaltbaum Capital Management, LLC (“KCM”), an investment adviser registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The opinions expressed herein are those of Mr. Kaltbaum and may not reflect those of KCM. The information offered in this publication is general information that does not take into account the individual circumstances, financial situation or individual needs of an investor. The information herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we cannot assure its accuracy or completeness. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. Any reference to past performance is not to be implied or construed as a guarantee of future results.