06/11/2012: GARY ON NATIONALLY SYNDICATED INVESTORS EDGE RADIO BROADCAST

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http://archives.warpradio.com/btr/InvestorsEdge/061118.mp3

JUST LETTING YOU KNOW

Double Yuck

For the past two years, we have been talking about Greece. The fear is that they leave the European Zone, and that it’s all going to blow up because everybody owns each other’s’ bonds. And people took their eyes off of Spain, Italy, Portugal and some of these other places.

In case you did not know (and this is such a shame), Spain has 24% unemployment. For teenagers, it’s 50%. And a lot of the reason why is the deals they cut many years ago on paying people and letting them retire at the age of 50-52 and giving them their salaries till death.

And the problem is that when you don’t have enough workers to pay for the retired, you end up with problems. Now on top of that in Spain, there is a huge plunging housing market and a lot of bonds that backed that housing market. That is plunging Spain’s banks into the abyss. So, all of a sudden, that bubbles up in the past couple weeks and we find out the banks in Spain are in need of a bailout – and they got one. The got a 100 billion Euro bailout which I think is about a $130 billion. And, of course, over the weekend…the markets said “we love this…it’s like the TARP.”

And the futures on the market were up around 150. As you know I don’t watch financial television. I can’t. It’s nothing against them. I just gotta keep my own thoughts in mind. I don’t want to be swayed and as you know, Wall Street is always bullish. They’re never bearish. “Everything is always going up. You always have to be fully invested. Don’t worry everything’s okay…even if your stock goes down 100%.”

I had a new client come in who had an account with somebody who owned a bunch of bank stocks. Three of them went down 100%. And, when asked how they could let them go down 100%. They said, “Well we don’t sell. We have a model portfolio.” Ain’t that deep.

Anyway, so the market gaps up on the news from Spain and I asked myself, “Why would the market be up?” Well, we now know that Spain, not just Greece, is in dire straits. Last I looked Spain was bigger than Greece. Not to mention, we know Italy has got problems. And Portugal has got problems. So I’m thinking to myself “Why?”

So I did it. I went against my own thinking and I turned out financial television and I gotta tell you…it was:

“You gotta buy. You gotta buy. You gotta buy.  You gotta buy.  You gotta buy.  You gotta buy.  You gotta buy.  You gotta buy.  You gotta buy.  You gotta buy.  You gotta buy.  You gotta buy.  You gotta buy.  You gotta buy.  You gotta buy.  You gotta buy.  You gotta buy.  You gotta buy.  You gotta buy…..

Be in or miss. Valuations are cheap. Everything’s going to be okay. We’ll get past this. It’s all good.”

And, of course, there were some voices that were logical. I saw one guy who said that there was a lot of uncertainty out there and it was hard to tell. That’s the good answer. There’s a ton of uncertainty. Uncontrollable debt…it’s not good. It’s the killer of countries. It’s wiped out countries in the past.

So I came in to the office and the market was up 90 or 100. But then noticed something. The Nasdaq starting selling of. And as you know, for us the Nasdaq is the leading index. At all times it leads up and it leads down. And on top of that:

  • We’re still in a correction.
  • Every major average is trading below its 50-day moving average with a couple trading below the 200-day.
  • There’s still a clear lack of leadership out there.

So here’s the short version. The market had a vicious, ugly, yucky turnaround, finishing near the lows of the day on distribution day in the Nasdaq as volume picked up from Friday. NYSE did the same.

And when I did my scans after the close: Let me be crystal clear on what I’m seeing.

Not good.

You know we had that rally last week and you get some hope. And you hope. And they just distributed the strong open today.

Forget the numbers. Think of the physicality. Imagine you’re climbing a ladder to the top of something and every time you get near the top, there’s somebody up there with a mallet who just hits you right on the head and knocks you down. Well I got news for you, there’s about a hundred mallets up there knocking the market down. That’s what happened today.

They distributed stock into any froth open and that is not a good sign. And when I looked at the patterns in the market at the close today, DOUBLE YUCK.

Now I think the lows of last week are going to hold for now. I think.

Before today, I would have said, I’m pretty sure they’re going to hold for now.

I don’t think I’m pretty sure any more.

And obviously, if they break last week’s lows, there’s going to be more heck to pay. 

LISTEN TO GARY LIVE ON WEEKDAYS 6-7 PM ON A STATION NEAR YOU AND AT GARYK.COM

6-7 pm EST

Best of Investor’s Edge
Saturdays 1-2 am EST

Gary Kaltbaum owns Kaltbaum Capital Management, LLC (“KCM”), an investment adviser registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The opinions expressed herein are those of Mr. Kaltbaum and may not reflect those of KCM. The information offered in this publication is general information that does not take into account the individual circumstances, financial situation or individual needs of an investor. The information herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we cannot assure its accuracy or completeness. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. Any reference to past performance is not to be implied or construed as a guarantee of future results.

06/08/2012: GARY ON NATIONALLY SYNDICATED INVESTORS EDGE RADIO BROADCAST

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http://archives.warpradio.com/btr/InvestorsEdge/060818.mp3

JUST LETTING YOU KNOW

Yesterday, I said there was nothing I liked about yesterday’s action. The market was still in correction. The market was up nicely and they sold into it.

Today the opposite happened. They bought into the early selling and finished near the highs of the day. That’s good action.

Overall, the market does not have a confirmed uptrend. We have not had a follow-through day.

BUT…

I love the action in the growth leaders that I have told you about on my radio show. All my growth stocks have the same characteristics:

  1. Great relative strength vs. the market.
  2. An ability to not go down while market is.
  3. Great earnings and revenue growth for the most part.
  4. Whenever the market gets some light at the end of the tunnel, they start ripping to the upside.

But again, we need to see a real confirmation that the market correction is over. The fly in the ointment today was that volume was light. I would have like to have seen bigger volume today. Volume measures conviction of the buying and selling from the Big Money Crowd.

So I’m not so sure the conviction was there today.

On some individual names, there was conviction.

The Nasdaq held the 200-day moving average. And actually, you’ve got some resistance at 2882. The 50-day moving averages looks to be at around 2950.

The Nadaq-100 looks like the Nasdaq. It needs to break above 2570. A lot of that is Apple.

The NYSE remains the weakest of the major indices. That’s below the 200-day moving average. Keep in mind that oil components are what’s holding that back.

Russell 2000 is back above the 200-day moving average. That’s good news for now.

The S&P 500 is back above the 200-day moving average and so is the DOW.

That is good news. My guess is that Wednesday put in a good low for now.

Basically, when I use that terminology, it means at least over the next couple weeks, I do not think that low gets taken out on the downside, if at all.

If something changes, I will let you know.

If we’re going to get a big move out of here, we’ll need a Follow-Through Day. Today didn’t qualify and volume was a joke. 

LISTEN TO GARY LIVE ON WEEKDAYS 6-7 PM ON A STATION NEAR YOU AND AT GARYK.COM

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Best of Investor’s Edge
Saturdays 1-2 am EST

Gary Kaltbaum owns Kaltbaum Capital Management, LLC (“KCM”), an investment adviser registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The opinions expressed herein are those of Mr. Kaltbaum and may not reflect those of KCM. The information offered in this publication is general information that does not take into account the individual circumstances, financial situation or individual needs of an investor. The information herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we cannot assure its accuracy or completeness. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. Any reference to past performance is not to be implied or construed as a guarantee of future results.

06/07/2012: GARY ON NATIONALLY SYNDICATED INVESTORS EDGE RADIO BROADCAST

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http://archives.warpradio.com/btr/InvestorsEdge/060618.mp3

JUST LETTING YOU KNOW

Yesterday, we looked at the leaders on my radio show. There is a reason why we do this.

What you need to know about the market is that strength begets strength and weakness begets weakness. And when the market’s really weak, but there’s a slew of stocks that refuse to go down, when the market rights itself, typically, they are going to lead up.

But we also recognize the nasty side of the equation and that is: If the market winds up going into a bear market, meaning bigger legs to the downside, eventually they will get every living leading stock.

Because as you go through a bearish phase, when everything else has been sold, they end up going to the things that have not been sold and they eventually take those down also. So I hope you’re doing some work with these things. There is a rhyme and a reason for it. If you have followed us through the years, and heard the names I’ve mentioned on my radio show, I think you’d probably be to the better.

And on top of that, we don’t let you hang. We also let you know when we think these leaders have broken down. In the past year, Netflix was a leader, but we told you in August of 2011 that that stock looked down. Green Mountain Coffee was a leader. We told you in September and October of 2011 that that stock was done. And I could go on and on.

Markets change. Leaders change. You’ve got to stay in touch with the change.

Today’s Action

There was nothing I liked about today’s action, even though when all was said and done, the Dow finished up. And, of course, the news is fluid. But the most important thing for us is outcome. Even though you’ll hear on the news that the Dow was up 46, there was still less than meets the eye.

What have I taught you on my radio show? It’s good when the market’s down big and finishes up. It’s bad when market is up big and finishes down. And it’s always bad when the Nasdaq is underperforming the Dow. And I noticed throughout the day…mid-day when the Dow was up 115 and Nasdaq was up 12. And then the market came in toward the close and Dow was up 46, The S&P was down a little, the Nasdaq was down almost 14. The Nasdaq-100 was down 11. The Russell 2000 was down 5. The Transports were down 6 AFTER BEING UP 110.

There’s nothing I liked about today. That’s my theme.

There is a heck of a lot of news on a daily basis being thrown at us from Europe, from Washington, and from Bernanke. We watch and read the news. But we pay more attention to the reaction to the news because in bullish phases, the market ignores bad news and ramps up on good news. In bear phases, the market ignores good news and sells of bad news in a big way. So it’s our job to measure the markets, not somebody’s opinion or thought.

Keep watching the markets. They remain in correction right now regardless of the big move we had yesterday. We did not have a Follow-Through Day. And the next day after the big day yesterday, we were up big and the market got distributed into that big up day.

And my favorite growth names, while the market was up big today, weren’t doing a thing. And they sold off toward the end of the day.

My Thoughts On Gold

Something funny happened the other day. I came on my show and Gold had that big move up and I was nonplussed. And I said that the 148 that Gold (GLD) had hit in December held. But let’s not all get crazy yet.

I also said that if we’re going to still follow the template of the late 1970s, you have many more months before Gold really gets going.

And I got all these emails blasting me and some people cursing me.

So yesterday Gold was up and reversed. And today Gold and Gold stocks got hit pretty hard.

So I’m going to repeat myself again. I don’t think there’s much to do there. I do think that 148 level is gonna hold for right now. But let me be clear. A break below 148 and the GLD and…GOOD NIGHT. GOOD ABSOLUTE NIGHT.

That’s all. That’s my take. You get to decide.

LISTEN TO GARY LIVE ON WEEKDAYS 6-7 PM ON A STATION NEAR YOU AND AT GARYK.COM

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Best of Investor’s Edge
Saturdays 1-2 am EST

Gary Kaltbaum owns Kaltbaum Capital Management, LLC (“KCM”), an investment adviser registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The opinions expressed herein are those of Mr. Kaltbaum and may not reflect those of KCM. The information offered in this publication is general information that does not take into account the individual circumstances, financial situation or individual needs of an investor. The information herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we cannot assure its accuracy or completeness. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. Any reference to past performance is not to be implied or construed as a guarantee of future results.

 

06/06/2012: GARY ON NATIONALLY SYNDICATED INVESTORS EDGE RADIO BROADCAST

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http://archives.warpradio.com/btr/InvestorsEdge/060618.mp3

JUST LETTING YOU KNOW

When we came into today, we were walking into Day-3 off an attempted rally, while the market is in correction. As we have told you on this show, we do not know:

  • How long a correction lasts
  • How far it goes
  • Whether it turns in a bear market
  • Whether it turns into a vicious bear market
  • Whether it’s something of short-term, intermediate-term or longer-term

We just go with the flow and we look for clues in price, volume and leadership.

As you know in past years, we’ve had to do a little bit more than just that. We have to think about, “what’s the Fed’s next move?” Why? Because you can go back a good three years and see that whenever the Fed has announced more printing of money, the market went into gear.

And there’s been a lot of wondering about whether the market was going to continue down. Was the Fed going to come and make some sort of announcement of more printing of money?

Now there in the midst of printing money right now…Operation Twist. But I believe it expires at the end of June and the Fed has a June 19 and 20 meeting. But I do believe they speak to congress tomorrow or the next day…something like that.

Well, here’s what we do know:

Two Fed heads came out and stated, “We need more aggressive easing” meaning more printing of money because we can’t go more than zero percent interest rates.

So if you’re looking for a reason why we’d be up big today, I guess you can look at that.

I care about outcome. First off, let’s do this by the book. In order for the market to confirm that a correction is over, there has always been one characteristic of the market that has occurred prior to that new rally.

And it’s something called a Follow-Through Day (FTD). It’s not something that I’ve made up. It is something that others have studied throughout market history. And we know certain things. All we are doing is studying what works and what doesn’t work in the markets.

Throughout history, not every FTD worked. But every bullish rally we have had started with a FTD. A FTD is simple:

  1. You get a day the market hits a low.
  2. 4 to 7 days out, you get a big move on heavier volume than the day before.

LIKE TODAY!

Only problem. Today was only Day 3. And there is no rule for a FTD on Day 3. Now you say, “Why not?” It’s just all about works and what doesn’t work.

 That’s all.

Volume was heavier than yesterday, though still tepid. And the move today was strong and definitively had darn good short covering into the close. Basically, that means that everyone everybody that came into the day short hoping the rally would reverse recognized that it doesn’t reverse around 3:00 – 3:15 PM EST and all of a sudden they start covering their shorts…and it’s a self-fulfilling prophecy and boom, you go out at the high of the day.

So let’s put this together.

It’s not a FTD. What do you do?

Well let me be simplistic. Just like we did last week, and just like we did the week before…and the week before…and the week before: I’m going to look at the all the leading stocks in the market and what they look like, just in case this leads to something.

Keep in mind that Friday of last week, the market broke some ugly support on some volume. Very ugly action. Here’s the best thing I can tell you today.

We had something of a failed breakdown. It’s the opposite of a failed breakout.

That is some good news.

But I leave it at that.

 Editor’s note: During Gary’s radio show, he walks you through some of the leading stocks by name. Click the play button below to listen to Gary’s show its entirety. 

http://archives.warpradio.com/btr/InvestorsEdge/060618.mp3

LISTEN TO GARY LIVE ON WEEKDAYS 6-7 PM ON A STATION NEAR YOU AND AT GARYK.COM

6-7 pm EST

Best of Investor’s Edge
Saturdays 1-2 am EST

Gary Kaltbaum owns Kaltbaum Capital Management, LLC (“KCM”), an investment adviser registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The opinions expressed herein are those of Mr. Kaltbaum and may not reflect those of KCM. The information offered in this publication is general information that does not take into account the individual circumstances, financial situation or individual needs of an investor. The information herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we cannot assure its accuracy or completeness. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. Any reference to past performance is not to be implied or construed as a guarantee of future results.

 

06/05/2012: GARY ON NATIONALLY SYNDICATED INVESTORS EDGE RADIO BROADCAST

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http://archives.warpradio.com/btr/InvestorsEdge/060518.mp3

JUST LETTING YOU KNOW

Yesterday was an up day for one of the indices.

Today was an up day for all of the indices. And I’m getting all these emails already asking: “Do I think the low has been put in.”

And I must tell you that scares the living heck out of me. When people are asking me this because of one day up, that is worrisome.

It seems to me that there’s anxiousnous and no worry about going on in the markets right now. We’ll see. All I know is that we’ve had ugly moves down and we’ve rallied up for two days on lighter volume.

I’m sorry that is not a good recipe for a good market.

BUT…

If we can get a Follow-Through Day (FTD) and get some leadership, I’ll be glad to be on board.

Ladies and gentlemen. Get the books that I tell you to study. Do the things I tell you to do. I don’t want this to be a radio show that’s only about “Gary said this. Gary said that.” You guys should be doing some work at this. It is your money.

Just to make sure you know…nothing has changed. We’re bouncing up after a big drubbing which is normal. I don’t have any new stocks to put on my leadership list. All I have is things bouncing after a drubbing. AND on lighter volume. Not good.

In order to get the least bit excited, we need to see a FTD, but I’m not even sure that would do the trick because you really do not have a lot of good setups in the market. You need a lot of good trading range bases. And the volume patterns are still what I consider to be yuckified.

So that’s the take on the market overall.

  • The Nasdaq did a smidge back above the 200-day moving average today.
  • The Nasdaq-100 held it yesterday.
  • The Dow is still below it.
  • The S&P is on it at the close today.
  • The Russell 2000…still below.
  • The NYSE…way below.
  • The Semiconductor Index…way below.

So I wouldn’t get excited again.

If things change I will let you know. My guess is that there will be some more time and price.

LISTEN TO GARY LIVE ON WEEKDAYS 6-7 PM ON A STATION NEAR YOU AND AT GARYK.COM

6-7 pm EST

Best of Investor’s Edge
Saturdays 1-2 am EST

Gary Kaltbaum owns Kaltbaum Capital Management, LLC (“KCM”), an investment adviser registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The opinions expressed herein are those of Mr. Kaltbaum and may not reflect those of KCM. The information offered in this publication is general information that does not take into account the individual circumstances, financial situation or individual needs of an investor. The information herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we cannot assure its accuracy or completeness. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. Any reference to past performance is not to be implied or construed as a guarantee of future results.

 

06/04/2012: GARY ON NATIONALLY SYNDICATED INVESTORS EDGE RADIO BROADCAST

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http://archives.warpradio.com/btr/InvestorsEdge/060418.mp3

JUST LETTING YOU KNOW

Yuck

On Friday, some key support levels were taken out and as I have always told you, support levels can always be taken out and then taken back and everything starts to repair itself. But not much I saw today excites me.

And yes we a lot of jello movement on the plate. A lot of back and forth today because when markets are stretched and extended from the norm, you’ll tend to get more whippy action. And, of course, you’ve got a lot of shorts in the market right now and you had a lot of short covering throughout the day.

But there’s one thing that matters to me most and that is the big picture.

What matters to me most underneath that big picture is my sector analysis.

What to me most after that is, “How are people reacting to what we’re seeing? How are the masses feeling about the markets?”

But there is no better way of measuring the market than Price and Volume. Recently, price and volume has been nothing but “yuck.”

It’s a very sick market out there right now. Just remember one thing. When the market is sick all we tend to do is just sit back, looking at leadership and looking for a Follow-Through Day (FTD) in the market. That is, you find the low and 4 to 7 days after, you get a big, gigantic day, typically 1.75% on heavier volume than the day before which has the potential to turn that market. Doesn’t mean it will, but gives the market that potential.

So frankly, today is Day 1 on the Nasdaq and Nasdaq-100. I’m not sure that means much. Just remember, bottoms in markets can come out of nowhere sometimes. But most of the time, it’s a process.

I got a lot of emails over the weekend asking me what I really think about this market and where it’s going from here. I don’t know. I really don’t know. And I don’t pretend to know. I think there’s some more time and price. And we’ll keep reevaluating.

The most important thing is whether you got out of the way while the market is giving its clues. And the market gave out some very loud clues in the weeks past. We told you every single one of them. I hope you listened.

Important Things

  • The Dow remains trading below its 200-day moving average.
  • The Mid-cap 400 is also below its 200-dayh moving average.
  • The Russell 2000, the same.
  • The Small Cap 600…same
  • The Semiconductor Index is way below it’s 200-day moving average.
  • The NYSE is also way below.
  • The Nasdaq is sitting on it right now.
  • The Nasdaq-100 remains above its 200-day moving average. Keep in mind that a lot of that has to do with Apple.
  • The Transports…below the 200-day moving average.

Nothing good happens if markets are trading below the 200-day moving average. It’s a physical impossibility for the markets to go higher when trading below the 200-day moving average.

Also:

  • Japan is at 28-year lows for the market. We’re talking 1984. You got it. Back then, Japan was the end all be all. The Nikkei was in the 30,000s. Now it is sitting at 8295. Their debt is the biggest to GDP in the world, for a developed nation. And unfortunately, their demographics – they’re getting very old over there. But the debt is the big problem over there. Let’s keep our fingers crossed that we don’t follow suit.
  • The Financials continue to act pitifully. I have to tell you that I am so surprised that J.P. Morgan stock cannot find a friend. It went into more new relative low ground today, down .93 to 31. I guess credibility and trust do matter when it comes to the market. Nothing good is going to happen with the market as long as the Financials continue to be crushed.
  • The Transports were once down 100 today, finished down 64. But I gotta tell you, with the crashing price of oil, I would have throught that the Transports would do better. But they’re just breaking down. The Airlines were crushed today.

Nothing is turning up except for Gold. But I’m not so sure that’s going to last. Gold is most definitely the “fear trade” and the bet that the maniacal Bernanke will come out and just conjure up some more money out of thin air.

LISTEN TO GARY LIVE ON WEEKDAYS 6-7 PM ON A STATION NEAR YOU AND AT GARYK.COM

6-7 pm EST

Best of Investor’s Edge
Saturdays 1-2 am EST

Gary Kaltbaum owns Kaltbaum Capital Management, LLC (“KCM”), an investment adviser registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The opinions expressed herein are those of Mr. Kaltbaum and may not reflect those of KCM. The information offered in this publication is general information that does not take into account the individual circumstances, financial situation or individual needs of an investor. The information herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we cannot assure its accuracy or completeness. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. Any reference to past performance is not to be implied or construed as a guarantee of future results.

 

06/01/2012: GARY ON NATIONALLY SYNDICATED INVESTORS EDGE RADIO BROADCAST

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http://archives.warpradio.com/btr/InvestorsEdge/060118.mp3

JUST LETTING YOU KNOW

Here’s what I was hearing today ladies and gentlemen:

You know what we need?

We need the people that can afford it to pay more of their fair share.

We need to step up government spending.

We need an infrastructure spending.

I heard the President today blame everybody but himself and his policies. He said people need to step up and pay their fair share. And we need more government programs. That’s the ticket. That’s the answer.

More deficits.

More government control.

More government answers.

Every answer is what more government will do for you.

More government spending.

And higher taxes.

More green energy. I heard that out of the president today. We need more green energy.

FORGET THE TENS OF BILLIONS OF DOLLARS THAT ARE GONE TO COMPANIES THAT WERE HIS BUDDIES, BUNGLERS AND HIS FRIENDS – THEY’RE ALL BANKRUPT!

George Bush. It was a just a trillion that went to Iraq. We’re now out of Iraq. Have you been reading the about the bombings that are happening daily in Iraq? I have. Doesn’t anybody think there’s a chance that somebody worse than Sadam Hussain could take it over?

Who are these people? I’ll tell you they are. They’re running us into the ground. They are so lucky they have us…

…and our hard work

…and our risk taking

…and our ingenuity.

Because I’ve got news for you. THEY SUCK!

So we’re at this point where I’ve told you for years that nothing’s bad until the market says so. Well the market’s speaking up. And yes, part of it is Europe. But I’ve been telling to not ignore what’s going on here.

Now you would think…didn’t we still gain jobs? Unemployment has improved somewhat, though it was up a little bit here.

Why did the market get killed today?

Well it’s simple. The market came to the realization over the past few weeks and months that nothing’s going to change. These people that are running the show are insane. They are economic socialist dictatorships. Spending money that they don’t have. Infinitum.

The next six years of our tax payer dollars have already been spent.

They should be in jail for this.

Who are these people in government?

George Bush. What did he do in business? Oh, he was given a piece of the Texas Rangers to own. He oversaw a defunct oil company.

Barack Obama. What has he done in the business world? NOTHING!

Yet, there are our two most recent presidents.

And this one building up $6 trillion in debt over three years. He beat George Bush. George Bush didn’t even do that in eight years.

And now you see some outcomes. I’ve been telling you for 3 1/2 years on my radio show. There is no way we’re going to see the economy find its potential. It’s impossible for an economy to find its potential when you have the government spending a $1.5 trillion inefficiently every year, adding to debt that everybody knows has to be paid back.

There’s no way the economy can reach its potential if on a daily basis you are blasting every business out there. In the past 3 1/2 years they have gone after Walmart, oil companies, medical companies, doctors, lawyers, insurance companies, banks, brokerages, coal companies….shall I continue?

I can go on and on.

The Market

We walked into a big gap down into the market today. The market was gapping down even before the employment numbers came out. And then kinda sorta – all heck broke loose.

The only port in the storm was that everything that was sold today was put into gold and gold stocks. Not as an inflation play, but as a “just put me somewhere play.”

And, of course, they went into treasuries. Wait till you hear the yields on the 10- and 30-year…holy smokes.

Leave no doubt, this bearish phase is gaining teeth. As I have told you for the past few months, as it was topping out and more and more areas were getting into trouble, we have no idea how bad it gets or how far it goes. We just know that we are in a corrective phase of unknown price and time.

The support levels that I have told you about over the past few days, were taken out today and somewhat on the easy side.

More technical damage was done in the market today.

And I hope you have been listening to my radio show. This did not start today. This started in Mid-March, when first I told you about the Advance/Decline, new highs dissipating and then it was the financials. And then the Semiconductors. And this, that and the other thing.

And where it stops, I don’t know. All I can tell you is, after the break today…expect some more downside.

The Fed meets June 19 and 20. We’ll see what they have to say. But I have news for you. I’m not sure they have any ammo. They certainly don’t have any one the economy. Part of the problem is that the Fed has sat around allowing all this deficit spending.

Government has the answer?

No. They have nothing. They failed in everything. Medicare, Medicaid, Social Security, it’s all bankrupt.

But there’s good news…

We will come out of this. And it will spawn new leaders and big movers. So do not every turn your head away, we’ll let this bearish phase go through. And we will find the characteristics of the turn when it occurs and we’ll talk about what’s leading at that point in time, when it occurs. NOT IF…but WHEN IT OCCURS.

LISTEN TO GARY LIVE ON WEEKDAYS 6-7 PM ON A STATION NEAR YOU AND AT GARYK.COM

6-7 pm EST

Best of Investor’s Edge
Saturdays 1-2 am EST

Gary Kaltbaum owns Kaltbaum Capital Management, LLC (“KCM”), an investment adviser registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The opinions expressed herein are those of Mr. Kaltbaum and may not reflect those of KCM. The information offered in this publication is general information that does not take into account the individual circumstances, financial situation or individual needs of an investor. The information herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we cannot assure its accuracy or completeness. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. Any reference to past performance is not to be implied or construed as a guarantee of future results.

 

05/30/2012: GARY ON NATIONALLY SYNDICATED INVESTORS EDGE RADIO BROADCAST

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http://archives.warpradio.com/btr/InvestorsEdge/053018.mp3

JUST LETTING YOU KNOW

100% Within the Rules, But What About Ethics?

Facebook was down another .72 to 28.10 today. And there was late news today, as follows:

NEW YORK – Morgan Stanley (MS) Chairman and Chief Executive James Gorman defended the securities firm’s role in Facebook Inc.’s (FB) tumultuous initial public offering, telling employees internally that the firm worked “100% within the rules” and calling the steep decline in Facebook’s stock “disappointing.”

Gorman, in a weekly strategy meeting Tuesday, which was later webcast to employees, said “speculation of nefarious activity” surrounding the social networking company’s IPO is untrue. Contrary to some reports, he said, he wasn’t “aware of any dissent” among the underwriting firms regarding Facebook’s IPO price of $38 a share. Continued

Later…I read the following:

…the SEC’s review of Facebook’s IPO suggested technical failures and not rule violations, according to a report. And the SEC may propose new rules to delay trading when future IPOs are priced… Continued

Well, they’re both right. What, no violations? No I don’t think so. In fact, I disagree with the people that are suing, saying that the information about the slowdown in Facebook earnings wasn’t out quick enough. In fact, I read you this information on my radio show before Facebook came public.

That’s where I stop being nice

You see, what the Morgan Stanley CEO forgets is that nobody gives a frying crap about whether they worked within the rules on doing this initial public offering. What people care about is the ethics and lack of fiduciary responsibility when bringing public a company with a $100 billion market cap – that has less than $4 billion in revenues.

What about that Mr. Morgan Stanley CEO? What about giving a hoot about the investing public, instead of your fees and trying to amass the highest price possible, leaving not one crumb left over for the investing public? What about that Mr. Morgan Stanley CEO?

You see, Mr. Morgan Stanley CEO, forget the rules! Logic, ethics and fiduciary responsibility says, YOU STINK!  Mr. Morgan Stanley CEO…part of your job is to just do the right thing.

That’s all.

Just do the right thing.

Because I’ve got news for you Mr. CEO of Morgan Stanley. If you took the name Facebook off of this IPO and just had any ordinary company come public that has less than $4 billion in revenues and their earnings were declining and sales were slowing…hmm let me see what valuation you would put on that.

$20 billion? Maybe.

BUT NO…you wanted $100 billion.

Now let me tell you why you did it, Mr. CEO of Morgan Stanley. Because you have other companies coming public and you want the highest price possible. You want to create a bubble like you did in 1999.

You did not learn any lessons from 1999 – not to screw the public.

Instead,  you screwed the public again.

There’s only one bit of good news coming out of this. Yeah, the investing public got screwed a little bit.

But you got screwed worse Mr. Morgan Stanley CEO. Because your credibility is SHOT. My thoughts on you are SHOT. And maybe just maybe, your stock price down at 13 bucks is telling you that your ethics and fiduciary capability is shot.

What are the repercussions of your greed?

You’re being sued.

Secondly, your credibility is shot.

Kayak.com

Thirdly, we enter Kayak.com. Kayak.com is delaying is IPO. Guess who is the underwriter of the Kayak.com IPO? MORGAN STANLEY.

So take your rules and stick’em.

I care about the investing public.

You don’t.

A $100 billion market cap? I’m just this little guy on radio. Under the radar. And I was on my show every day saying $100 billion cap, are you sick in the mind? Doesn’t valuation matter to these people?

I KNEW. PEOPLE THAT ACTUALLY READ THE NUMBERS KNEW.

Anyway maybe Mr. Morgan Stanley CEO. Maybe you’ll learn a lesson this time. But I doubt it.

Facebook is at 28.10 and as I’ve told you, if I had to slap a valuation on this sucker…$15. Maybe. Doesn’t mean it goes there. Not a prediction…just putting a little reality into the numbers.  

I’m not here to be right. I’m just here to help you guys and to make sure you don’t ever get caught up in the touting and the hype. Because even right here, it still has an $80 billion market cap. And who would pay $80 billion for a company that has less than $4 billion in revenues…with sales slowing and their earnings declining???

I don’t know who would pay it, but I certainly know who would sell it to you.

Mr. CEO OF MORGAN STANLEY!!!!

LISTEN TO GARY LIVE ON WEEKDAYS 6-7 PM ON A STATION NEAR YOU AND AT GARYK.COM

6-7 pm EST

Best of Investor’s Edge
Saturdays 1-2 am EST

Gary Kaltbaum owns Kaltbaum Capital Management, LLC (“KCM”), an investment adviser registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The opinions expressed herein are those of Mr. Kaltbaum and may not reflect those of KCM. The information offered in this publication is general information that does not take into account the individual circumstances, financial situation or individual needs of an investor. The information herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we cannot assure its accuracy or completeness. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. Any reference to past performance is not to be implied or construed as a guarantee of future results.

05/29/2012: GARY ON NATIONALLY SYNDICATED INVESTORS EDGE RADIO BROADCAST

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http://archives.warpradio.com/btr/InvestorsEdge/052918.mp3

JUST LETTING YOU KNOW

Imperative

The most important thing I do here is to get you to understand the “downside” and how to protect yourself from the downside. And what are the indicators of the downside. And to never ever, ever, ever lose big.

How many times have I said that to you? Several million?

Well I bring that up today for two reasons:

Reason #1: Facebook

As you know, I told you on my radio show, I had no idea how the stock would open because it was just a guess. I told you on this show though, that the valuation was an utter joke. That would have brought it public 25% lower in price and 25% fewer shares. I also told you that, if I had to put a valuation on it, it would be $15. And that’s not a prediction because I have no idea and if the stock starts acting well and things go good for the company, I’ll be looking at it.

The stock was down another 3 to 28.84, which is surprising the heck out of me. This very important, over the top IPO opened at 38.00 and is now 28.84!

Wow! Amazing.

Lesson #1: Valuation matters. Hype doesn’t.

Lesson #2: READ THE NUMBERS! I read to you the numbers on my radio show. I told you the last three quarters earnings were up 83%…up 17% and DOWN 9%. I read to you a $100 billion market cap with less than $4 billion in sales and compared it to the Googles and the others.

But I had no idea, I’d be doing this,

There’s going to be a lot of lawsuits because the losses now are pretty big.

Reason #2 Research In Motion

The stock has now gone from 148 down to 11.23. After the close, Research in Motion announced a huge loss. Estimates I believe were for them to make 40 cents per share for the next quarter. They’re announcing a monstrous loss and they’re now hiring others for “strategic alternatives.”

And what’s lesson here: THINGS CHANGE!

Here is a company that blew it. People loved their Blackberries. They called them “Crackberries.” But they didn’t move with the market. They rested on their laurels. They did not change.

And gotta tell you. I’m not so sure they’re going to remain a going concern. I don’t think you can “put the crap back in the goose” as they say. And they do something like $20 billion in revenues. But last quarter, it was down 25%

Things change. Please stay on top of those two words. We’ve seen it this year in Green Mountain Coffee, Netflix…and how about Hewlett Packard?

Hewlett Packard. The stock’s been toast. That was a great stock for a while.

There a lot of money to lose in the market if you’re not moving with the market.

That’s the memo.

Let these be your lessons:

  1. Price and valuation matters
  2. Watch your stock, because you just never know. The great stocks of yesteryear can be your worst stocks today. We’re dealing with businesses here.

Look at Merck, the greatest drug company of all time. I think it’s down 50% from 2000. That’s a lot of cake. Things change. Value and price matters.

And if you are not in tune with those changes, you are going to get run over.

I want you to say in gear with the market.

Understand that the great names that everybody has to own today, could be the caca next week. It is imperative to watch that stock and how it is acting in the market against its peers vs. the market itself.

Imperative.

LISTEN TO GARY LIVE ON WEEKDAYS

6-7 pm EST

Best of Investor’s Edge
Saturdays 1-2 am EST

Gary Kaltbaum owns Kaltbaum Capital Management, LLC (“KCM”), an investment adviser registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The opinions expressed herein are those of Mr. Kaltbaum and may not reflect those of KCM. The information offered in this publication is general information that does not take into account the individual circumstances, financial situation or individual needs of an investor. The information herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we cannot assure its accuracy or completeness. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. Any reference to past performance is not to be implied or construed as a guarantee of future results.

05/25/2012: GARY ON NATIONALLY SYNDICATED INVESTORS EDGE RADIO BROADCAST

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http://archives.warpradio.com/btr/InvestorsEdge/052518.mp3

JUST LETTING YOU KNOW

There’s Just No Oomph

The market is moving on every move of the Euro. So if the Euro decides to rally here, I think market will rally some. But gotta tell you, on the whole, the market looks like caca. The action is caca. I don’t have anything redeeming to say about the market right now.

There’s a clear lack of leadership with more and more names just not working. There’s no just oomph.

Coming into this week, we were short-term MASSIVELY oversold, stretched and extended to the downside–where typically you will get good bounces out of that.

We hardly bounced. We had one up-day and sat.

So the bounce is anemic at best and that worries me. Because I’ve got news for you, if after a big drop and you can bounce well? Oh, the next move is down.

Now we have three days left in month. Typically that’s supposed to strong because they paint the tape.

But then again, going into Memorial Day was supposed to be seasonally strong, and the market flopped on its head today.

Just pay attention. We’ll guide you as best as we can. The market remains in correction and that’s it.

Most areas of the market have turned down.

European markets look terrible.

Asian markets look terrible.

Commodity stocks…holy smokes.

Financials….whacked. J.P. Morgan didn’t help.

And I could go on and on. 

LISTEN TO GARY LIVE ON WEEKDAYS

6-7 pm EST

Best of Investor’s Edge
Saturdays 1-2 am EST

Gary Kaltbaum owns Kaltbaum Capital Management, LLC (“KCM”), an investment adviser registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The opinions expressed herein are those of Mr. Kaltbaum and may not reflect those of KCM. The information offered in this publication is general information that does not take into account the individual circumstances, financial situation or individual needs of an investor. The information herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we cannot assure its accuracy or completeness. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. Any reference to past performance is not to be implied or construed as a guarantee of future results.