Today, the market broke above resistance and then turned right back down. The market’s okay. Probably a little overbought, and ahead of itself. Probably going to pull back some more. And we’ll see how it goes.

Remember that September is not usually a thrilling month, but I don’t think the technical condition is bad enough that the market just turns right back down. You have to see distribution.

Today was a distribution day in the market. Churning and then sell-down. But it’s only one day and wouldn’t go further than that.

Gold Revisited

Yesterday, I had said to you that:

 …If Gold (GLD) breaks below 148, it’s going to find some serious technical selling. But it’s now above it…a little bit of a stair step up. And a move above 158 would potentially be bullish, meaning, it’s in an area of resistance where it can go higher. But after that you have 159 and change and then the 162 levels.

And by happenstance, Gold gapped up today on the gap up in the Euro. So it was up about 1.60 to almost 159.

And man, I had people calling me in my office today on because I mentioned it yesterday. I don’t know if I explained well to you except to tell you:

Okay technically, you’re holding the 50-day moving average that has kinda sorta stopped going down.

You’ve pulled into it twice and it held.

And now at today’s close, you’ve broken above, by a smidge, the first area of resistance.

I don’t know how much conviction I have on it though.

I’m just letting you know.

I’m not saying that it doesn’t just keep on running from here.

I’m just not sure of this.

But technically, it is definitive bullish move in Gold.

Something like Royal Gold (RLGD), which is the strongest Gold stock actually looks pretty decent with the potential to break out. As for the rest of the Gold stocks, I just noticed that Newmont Mining (NEM) was up nicely and they just sold it off. I saw in Goldcorp (GG) and some of the others so I’m unclear on all of that.

Now Silver, which moved above a little resistance yesterday, also gapped up a little bit today. That’s above first resistance off the lows…and well see.

Just1 remember, when you’re in a bear market and you’re trying to turn things around, it’s not an event. It is a process over time.

Now some of the people that called me today asked, “Is this it?”

And I tried to play the sarcasm game and I said, “Yeah, this is it.”

But it just doesn’t work that way. You see it move above a certain area. You place your bets. You put on your stop. And you’re done if it doesn’t work.

If it keeps going up and builds stair steps up – potentially add.

But that’s as far as I can go.

You can tell I’m kinda sorta nonplussed on it now.

But I’m all for it, if Gold just wants to ramp up out of here.

I’m just not sure just yet.

My conviction is on the low side.

We’ll see how it plays out. 


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Gary Kaltbaum owns Kaltbaum Capital Management, LLC (“KCM”), an investment adviser registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The opinions expressed herein are those of Mr. Kaltbaum and may not reflect those of KCM. The information offered in this publication is general information that does not take into account the individual circumstances, financial situation or individual needs of an investor. The information herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we cannot assure its accuracy or completeness. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. Any reference to past performance is not to be implied or construed as a guarantee of future results.