Never forget one of our most important mottoes: IT’S NEVER BAD UNTIL THE MARKET SAYS SO.
After yesterday’s action, markets are massively oversold. Sentiment has become decidedly bearish. The permabears are all out calling for their end of world scenarios. Inverted yield curves…recessions…deflation…and all that crap. Just because markets are beyond oversold and sentiment is bearish, it does not mean markets have to bounce. It just means the conditions are there for a good bounce.
This whole inverted yield curve crap did not come out of thin air. It has been moving that way for quite a while. It was just a matter of when. The fact is this 2 year/10 year is problematic as it does have a great record.
Over 600 new yearly lows. This is amazing since major indices are only down in the mid-teens. It just tells you how weak markets are underneath the surface. We have highlighted for you how weak the small and mid-caps have been relative to the large caps. We have highlighted for you how weak foreign markets have been.
Overpriced, over-hyped, money losing IPOs are now being scorched. This leads us to another one of our mottoes: IN BEARISH MARKETS, THE CURTAINS COME DOWN ON MOST COMPANIES THAT LOSE MONEY. You may not know this but a ton of money losing IPOs that came public in the last year are now down 30,40,50% and even more. We have been quoted as saying UBER stock should be in the teens. It may be headed that way.
This latest drop started with President Trump putting the 10% tariffs on China…July 31. Up until then, major indices were near highs. As usual and as we told you, he has already pulled back the tariffs on the most important products but the market may just be pissed off enough that they don’t care. Too many flip-flops?
—–“””The United States Trade Representative (USTR) today announced the next steps in the process of imposing an additional tariff of 10 percent on approximately $300 billion of Chinese imports. On May 17, 2019, USTR published a list of products imported from China that would be potentially subject to an additional 10 percent tariff. This new tariff will go into effect on September 1 as announced by President Trump on August 1. Certain products are being removed from the tariff list based on health, safety, national security and other factors and will not face additional tariffs of 10 percent. Further, as part of USTR’s public comment and hearing process, it was determined that the tariff should be delayed to December 15 for certain articles. Products in this group include, for example, cell phones, laptop computers, video game consoles, certain toys, computer monitors, and certain items of footwear and clothing. USTR intends to conduct an exclusion process for products subject to the additional tariff. The USTR will publish on its website today, and in the Federal Register as soon as possible, additional details and lists of the tariff lines affected by this announcement.””””—–
—–Health, safety, national security and other factors? We are not stupid Mr. President! This has nothing to do with health, safety, national security and other factors. The president, once again, backed away from new tariffs because of market deterioration.—–
—–We are not complaining about this move. We hate tariffs. And yes Mr. president, business and consumer pay for the tariffs. Why do you think you paid off the farmers with $28 billion of our tax dollars? We are complaining because we cannot stand policy based on market movement. This is not ordering carpet and tile for hotels. There will come a day where this becomes a “boy who cried wolf” market. There will come a day where markets have had enough with this “Sybil”-like economic policy which changes with market winds. There will come a day where markets do not believe a word that comes out of this president’s mouth.—–
—–On cue, markets get back what they lost yesterday…and more. Technology leads today as technology was just excused from detention. APPLE (AAPL) rallies up 5% immediately. (Would like to see Tim Cook’s phone logs as we are sure he has been talking to the president on this.) The good news is that the President backed away from stupidity. The bad news is that one day the market will not trust a word from Mr. Bluster and then watch what happens with markets.—–
Uh…yesterday was a bad day.
Yesterday, the big 4 indices could not get back above the 50 day and now look headed towards the 200 day.
The 200 day had better hold.
China/Hong Kong is a problem. We are with the people of Hong Kong but not when they shut down the airport. They only hurt themselves. We worry about a disproportionate response by the Chinese government.
Argentina is a problem. In early primary, pro-business dude not good…socialist makes big headway. Go look at AGT. A big wow.
Fewer and fewer names working. More and more names breaking first line of support.