PRE MARKET

Futures reverse down as China puts tariffs on the U.S. in a retaliatory measure. Powell yaps today. Thrilled yet that we cannot have a day with central bank or trade noise?

Our stance remains…China is a bad player but this administration has read China all wrong. They are not lying down and are not going to lie down and we promise you one thing…if this escalates, look out. Not kidding.

Have a great weekend.

PRE MARKET

Good day yesterday but after scanning 1500 names, 200 sectors, every country…any rally continues to be narrow in that there is just not a lot of leadership. To sustain rallies, you need to be more broad based. So…let’s hope this narrowness changes.

SOFTWARE had a great day as a few names edged out of range and a bunch of names that broke support recently woke up and tried to turn up.

We will really need to see the big 4 indices get back above the 50 day and then set up better. Otherwise, we will see more back and forth nausea. The recent lows look like they are the lows for this second but leave no doubt, any break will invite institutional selling as the biggies recognize market is giving up.

Lots of noise soon as Powell yaps and the prez continues to loudly jawbone for a whole 1 point rate cut and more printed money. This sickens us as it screws savers, enables more massive debt, distorts price more and more and guarantees when these central bank-induced asset prices break, it will be holy hell. We really hope we are wrong. By they way, the pres used to rail against the Obama/Bernanke easy money. Funny how things change when you are behind the desk in the oval office.

A few notes:

TGT numbers really good and even better reaction. Could be the start of a move. Do not believe the many saying HD and LO numbers were strong. They hardly grew sales and earnings but of course, beat the number.

Since people continue to ask, as long as BYND stays below the 50 day, there is no reason to jump on…and even though it just got an upgrade, valuation remains a joke…and yes, the analyst liked it because of valuation. Sure!

Yields are moving back up a wee bit. We continue to believe that the rally into 8/15 felt climactic…for now. Just means too extended and too frothy have to be worked off before attempting to move higher.

PRE MARKET

Market sells into close yesterday. Gets it back on a gap today.

Germany sells 30 year bonds negative…economy contracting…market up.

Central banks in hyper-drive now lowering rates and the president calling for more printing of money here after railing against Obama and Bernanke for their easy money.

TGT with the big gap on strong numbers. LOW with the strong gap on crappy numbers…on top of HD doing the same yesterday.

The past two weeks lows continue to hold. A break sends another stair step to the downside. No break today.

Fed minutes today to tell us what they thought weeks ago and Powell yapping at the end of the week.

 

PRE MARKET

Futures are flat. No really. No 300 points to the upside or 500 points to the downside.

We are not as thrilled as some with the latest jack to the upside. but we recognize Powell got some things going on this week and the great socialist President Trump jawboning Powell for not only lowering rates by a whole point but wants more printing of money. The president used to rail against Bernanke and Obama for their easy money. My how things change once in power.

Ok…socialist Gary? You are calling the president a socialist? Well,…giving away $28 billion of our tax dollars to farmers because of tariffs is socialism. Raising federal spending on 2 budgets by $600 billion is socialism. Running $1 trillion yearly deficits is socialism. Of course, there are levels of socialism…and this president is nowhere near the nightmares of Sanders and Warren but nevertheless, we expected much better. Hopefully he sees the error of his ways but so far, nothing doing.

Taking our time here.

RANDOM WEEKEND STUFF

Random thoughts:
Many have it all wrong on this Israel story. Many asking the question who wins and who loses. Many asking whether it hurts Israel with some saying it definitely will. Got some news for them. Israel, the miracle in the Middle East will continue to go on its merry way. 263 miles north to south, 71 miles east to west, bordering on the Med. A place where regardless of what is said by some, Jews, Christians, Muslims, every race, creed, color, gender live, play and work side by side. A place where the people and the economy thrive. A place where every major corporation and tons of businesses flock to. A place where past enemies are now friends because they know how great the people and the country are. A place where the first time we visited, we had to go into bomb shelters 7 times in 11 days because of rockets blasted overhead from right next door. There was a time where a rocket was taken out by the iron dome right over our head. There was a time we were eating dinner in a restaurant on the beach in Tel Aviv. The sirens went off. All the tourists ran into the bomb shelter. All the Israelis stayed at their tables. (Just imagine some bad guys in New Jersey lobbing a bunch of rockets into Manhattan! What would you do?) Talk about tolerance by Israel? Israel is one of the most magnificent places on this planet where so much history meets so much modernity. We can only answer any question by asking ourselves what would we do if we were running Israel knowing that right next door, there are those who if they could, would wipe you off the face of the earth? What would we do knowing that there were some that wanted to visit to do one thing, legitimize those that would hurt while delegitimizing the country we were running? What would we do if we saw that they refused to show up with a bipartisan delegation and show an itinerary with their visit to Palestine and not Israel while ignoring Israeli officials? What would we do knowing these people do not even acknowledge the existence of Israel or the Jewish state? Three words…take a hike. Nothing personal. Just take a hike. So while the media is still blaming this all on the president while giving certain people a pass, Israel is back to being Israel, the miracle in the Middle East. They have already moved on.
We love when political pundits do stand up comedy in trying to defend “their side” on the economy. Many were really trying to explain the inverted yield curve. Quite hilarious. The national media actually look like they are praying for bad things to happen to the economy. A reach? Don’t think so.
Navarro and Kudlow were all over the tube this weekend. Navarro with his usual b.s. trying to convince whomever that China is paying for the tariffs. Funny. How then did the consumer get “a gift” by delaying some very important tariffs? Slip of the tongue? Why did the president give $28 billion of our tax dollars to the farmers? Just asking.
And Kudlow…the man who used to hate tariffs, who used to hate deficits and debt…but now they don’t matter.
Speaking of that:
Throughout all their appearances, throughout all their interviews not one damn question on over $22 trillion of debt and $1 trillion yearly deficits brought on by this administration and the rest of the maniacs throughout the years. Not one damn question about how debt and deficits hamper growth and provide headwinds to growth. Not one damn question about what happens when the market finally decides the bill comes due. Remember, nothing is bad until the market says so.
The president is right. If Sanders or Warren get their hands on the White House, just cut the Dow in half. They are advocating the complete taking over of the economy as well as massive, gargantuan, gigantic spending and tax hikes that will crush the economy. You don’t believe us? Just watch and listen to them..We think Biden is talking a bit like them for the primary but are sure he governs more moderately so much less worried about him in comparison to the two Marxists. And no…Marxist is not a reach. Just listen to them. There is not an industry they haven’t mentioned for breaking up or taking over while there is not a tax hike they don’t like or a tax cut they do like.
Thursday morning, we told you we thought markets look to be putting in a near term lows. Everybody and everything had turned wildly bearish while major indices were bouncing off of what we would call vital support. On cue, markets rallied. Somehow we went from the world ending Wednesday to maybe everything is fine on Friday. Do you see what one decent day will do to people’s psyche? We suspect there is more to go in this rally/bounce but also suspect things are going to remain mushy. At best, we suspect range-bound. Let’s not talk about what’s worst.
We continue to believe if we have another leg down, the fed will be forced to cut before the next meeting. This rally enables them to hold off for now. We continue to believe there are too many tweets and too many words on the market and the economy from the man in charge. We continue to be less than thrilled that every time the market gets in trouble, the administration is on the phone with financial chieftains. This last go round, he called the three big bankers. Wish we were a fly on the wall.
Europe…we believe some of Thursday and Friday was the latest from the maniacs in Europe. Even though they have negative yields and even though they have printed trillions, they are going to go even more negative and print even more trillions. And in a stroke of genius…not…they are looking to use conjured up money to buy stocks. And they think that will help? Can’t wait until the Euro is .75 to the dollar. Remember, every market downturn will continue to be met with more and more aggressive central bank intervention both here and around the globe.
Lastly, Epstein! Jack Ruby did it.Talk about the fix being in…