-We have always told you we write less when markets are doing well. Since Powell’s 180 on January 4th which had us pivoting off the bear side, corrections have been shallow and short-lived. But before we get into that, we wanted to let you know we have a new addition to our list.-
-Yes…Senator Ron Wyden, you have made the list. Since the beginning of 2019, here are proposals on taxes from either the Presidential candidates or politicians:-
-A 90% tax. No…not kidding. You make 10 cents. The government takes 90 cents.
A 70% tax.
Wealth tax.
Carbon tax.
Gas tax.
VAT tax.
Financial transaction tax.
Higher payroll tax uncapped.
Higher corporate tax.
Higher estate tax.
Leave the country tax. Yes…you leave because of all the taxes, you pay first.-
-Which takes us to Ron Wyden of the beautiful state of Oregon. This politician who has been in DC for 38 years wants a tax on your investments that HAVE NOT been sold. We repeat…a tax on your investments that HAVE NOT been sold. We will let you take a few minutes to figure out what a nightmare proposal this is. It took us 3 seconds. We are just mentioning this because since this man has been a politician in DC, our debt has gone from basically zero to $22 trillion. Our taxes have skyrocketed. Their spending has skyrocketed and hits records every year. Their yearly deficits are at all time highs. BUT IT STILL AIN’T ENOUGH. Ron Wyden and all politicians since the early 80s…have been part of the problem and no one cares and no one gives a crap. Of course, we can also add:-
-The Green New Deal…no Miss Ocasio Cortez, we are not obsessed with you. We are obsessed with policy. We are obsessed with a policy that has destroyed everything in its wake. A policy that mimics the policy of that wonderful man Maduro just 2,700 miles south of this great country. We are obsessed with anyone who is an authoritarian socialist dictator that believes the state should control large swaths of the economy.-
-Medicare for all… yes good old Bernie realizing making big bucks is not such a bad thing.  Remember, socialists are only socialists with your money. They are quite the capitalists with their own money. And medicare for all, where all our taxes go way up but we get no premiums, no deductibles and no co-pays. It seems Mr. Bernie did not read Economics 101 or has read about the NHS in the UK. When you don’t have to pay specifically for anything, it gets overused. Big lines, big waits, big shortages for healthcare, for nurses, for doctors, for surgery for clinics for hospitals is a gimmee. Have you seen the lines at 7-11 when they have their free Slurpee days? IF YOU THOUGHT HEALTHCARE WAS EXPENSIVE NOW, JUST WAIT UNTIL IT IS FREE. Just remember, when government tells us it costs $1, just multiply by 3. And when government tells us we will get $1, just divide by 3.-
-We are just making the same point that seems to continue to fall on deaf ears. There is no way we can continue this trajectory with a disaster of epic proportions not happening. In fact, it is a lock. There is $250 trillion of debt. There is unknown amounts of derivatives in the system. You remember that word “derivatives?” There is a record amount of leverage. There is a record amount of complacency. There continues to be over-the-top easy money around the globe. Don’t you know why central banks were scared —-less in the 4th quarter of last year? They know they (who have enabled all of this with their easy money) cannot afford financial dislocations with so much debt. So stop those damn bear markets. Mr. Trump seems to have joined the easy money parade after ripping Obama and Bernanke for their easy money. My…how things change when you are the one in power.-
-And the politicians refuse to stop on both sides of the aisle. It is just that one side is now going after WE THE PEOPLE with a fervor we have never seen. Reagan said it best. “IF IT MOVES, TAX IT. IF IT KEEPS MOVING, REGULATE IT. AND IF IT STOPS MOVING, SUBSIDIZE IT. So Ron Wyden, you have now made the list that seems to be growing by the week. WHAT TAX CAN THEY THINK OF NEXT?-
-The only complaint we have about the market is that when everything seems to be going just swell, everyone is conditioned to never worry that anything can go wrong. It is this kind of sentiment that often leads to trouble…but so far, nothing doing. In fact, markets get stronger by the week as any correction is controlled and rotational. The SEMIS (our most important group) continue to lead and now the FINANCIALS may be coming on. Of course, a few thousand earnings reports are about to come out so hold on to your hats.-
-Our last message is that you need to remember markets are smarter than opinion. To this day, we continue to hear calls of recessions and depressions. With our thoughts on debt and deficits, we are always worried about the longer term but it just aint happening yet. There is no way the rails, the industrials and other economically sensitive areas are strong and at the same time, we are headed for an economic train wreck. We promise you that when the train wreck comes, the market will see it months in advance as it will crumble in spite of the maniacs at the fed lowering rates to 0% and printing money again…and we promise, again they will.-


Gap to the upside.

JPM up $3.

DIS up $7…market likes the streaming deal.

CVX buying APA…so OILS really helping the cause this morning.

Will leave it at that. More on the weekend.



Wait…stop. We didn’t know markets go down.

A little rough patch? Markets are overdue. Doesn’t mean the end of the world. Again, markets do go down.

As of this juncture, nothing but a pullback. Indices a little stretched and extended to the upside. A pullback towards moving averages would actually beneficial.

Earnings in droves starting this Friday with a few financial names.

To tell us if it will be more than a pullback, we make note of how many areas and how many stocks are breaking down. We will be on it if it starts to get hairy.

ECB announced this morning negative rates for the rest of the year. (They will never be able to roll things back!) Have you seen the charts of European banks?

Trump watching every tick. Seems all thoughts go towards keeping markets going. Calling for more QE. You know what we think of this.

Trump putting Stephen Moore and Herman Cain for the fed. No chance Cain even gets to nomination. Better chance for Moore.

Watch this Dwyane Wade video.



Futures down a wee bit. Nah…markets do not go down.

BOEING (BA) no help and now airlines are asking for compensation for losses. We have outlined for you our worries with the stock right now. Just too much uncertainty is still out there.

The SEMIS will never have a down day again.

Watching about 10-15 software names that were leading but now have pulled back into the 50 day average. Important they hold.

18 Dems now trying to be the prez. If you added up all their tax proposals, there would be no money left in the pockets of Americans. More on that tomorrow.

IMF lowers world GDP. We had no idea…and they are still too high and we still do not know what the IMF does.


BA down $17 as more orders cancelled. The stock had been shaping up but no way we go near it when there is so much potential headline risk.

The SOX now sticking up in the air here going coast to coast from the lows. Many fundamentalists think they will crash as the calls for bottoms are the cycle will not play out. The market has been saying otherwise. This remains the most important group in the market.

XOP, XLE, OIH tight action for weeks look to go topside.

FINANCIALS start reporting late this week. They continue to lag the move.

Otherwise, market knocking at the door of last year’s highs.