UH OH!

-Listen up peeps. Serious talk today. In our weekend report we told you we did not think the market would break the lows right now but in order to break the lows, they would have to break the financials and the tech. The lows have not been broken yet but we are headed there and unfortunately, it’s during earnings season. We say unfortunately because as we always say: “it’s not the news, it’s how things react to the news!” The reactions are becoming horrid.-
-Already, the SEMIS have broken. One down! And we are now seeing a ton of other tech breaking badly. Two down! Financials are still holding but by the hair of their chinny-chin-chin. Other stuff:-
-Major indices are failing at resistance/moving averages.-
-CATERPILLAR gaps up and then cracks badly…it’s not the news, it’s…-
-The SOX at relative lows…very poor reactions in a few names. It’s not the news, it’s…-
-As we write this, MMM down $19. That’s not a typo. MMM is down $19 and all they did was guide down a wee bit. It’s not the news, it’s…-
-LOCKHEED MARTIN down $26 on numbers …say what? Taking the rest of DEFENSE down. It’s not the news, it’s…-
-Leader NETFLIX gaps up on strong numbers…drops 10% in days. It’s not the news, it’s…-
-GOOGLE down $50 as we write this and they beat. It’s not the news, it’s…-
-APPLE breaks longer term support…and that’s before earnings…as guidance has been coming down.-
-We then went on to say:-
-“Just letting you know that if it (a break of long term support and recent lows) does happen…since the major support areas have held twice right at definable long term support, we think a break would lead to waterfall-type action as the big money would be yelling that they gave in. Also, while we are not big on the “sell in May and go away” mantra, we recognize it is out there.”-
-What is “waterfall” action? This is when the big money no longer is able to hold vital support. Once support is broke, it is recognized…which leads to an onslaught of selling. No…not kidding! Wish we were. We doubt the 3rd time down will hold but will keep fingers crossed.-
-Somebody better call Bernanke. Markets may need another round of printing. (sarcasm…maybe)-
-And lastly, we say this “not politically” because as you know, we hate them all. We are in serious hopes the president takes a page from others if the market continues down…and just say, “markets go up and sometimes they go down! Longer term the markets have done quite well.” AND THAT’S ALL!-

BERNIE SANDERS PROMISING JOBS FOR ALL!

Funny…a guy who has lived off the tax payer all his life is telling people he will get them all jobs!

SOURCE: http://thehill.com/homenews/senate/384554-sanders-to-announce-proposal-to-guarantee-jobs-to-all-americans

PRE MARKET

Mushy day yesterday. We guess it was good that DOW came back but SEMIS another rough day. We are now in the midst of earnings.

CAT, UTX, VZ gap up in the DOW. MMM, TRV gap down. KO is flat from the DOW.

Others gapping up…PHM, HOG WHR, SAP,CDNS, EDU, LMT.

Gapping down…GOOGL…but only $78 on a $1070 stock…but noteworthy that it was up $50 after hours yesterday before turning down. BIIB, CNC, PII, AMTD, CVNA.

We are sure we missed a few. Futures up decently but off their earlier highs. Markets remain in the ping-pong, back and forth. Again, after the 2013 central bank-induced romp, markets went into an 18 month range with a couple of yonks to the downside during the range. This range-bound action is not abnormal. The bulls hope recent lows are not taken out. So far, the lows continue to hold. Our take is that they are good lows for now but always on watch. We continue to tell you not so sure there can be a ton of upside either.

Lots more earnings this week and next.

PRE MARKET

Futures been strengthening a bit this morning.

OIL prices down decently. We told you over the weekend oil stocks extended and overbought. Let’s see how they pull in.

Important GOOG(L) after the close. A ton of important names this week.

In the DOW…MMM, CAT, KO, TRV, VZ, BA, INTC, MSFT, V, CVX, XOM, UTX

And:

Tuesday: AMTD, FCX, HOG, GLW, JBLU, MAS, PCAR, R, SAP, SHW, WYNN, CHRW, COF, CB, CREE, DFS, TXN, X

Wednesday: ANTM, BIIB, CMCSA, GD, NDAQ, NSC, TROW, TWTR, T, CMG, FFIV, F, LVS, QCOM, NOW, XLNX

Thursday: BMY, MO, AAL, CELG, CME, DPZ, GM, GRUB, TREE, MGM, RCL, STX, SNE, STM, TSCO, UNP, UPS,AMZN, AMGN, BIDU, EXPE, FISV, KLAC, PYPL, SBUX,, SYK, VRSN, VRTX, WDC

Please check on whether pre-market or after-market and dates are sometimes changed. We left out a ton of other names.

 

 

WEEKEND NOTES- LOTS OF SLOP!

-Our main theme continues. January 29th will be the highs for a  while while the recent lows/Feb lows provide a floor. So far, back and forth we go.-
-Still a ton of earnings to come out in next 3 weeks so be patient. There have been a few decent reactions like NFLX, CSX, TXT, ETFC and a few others but less than thrilled with so many blow-ups.-
-We scan approximately 1500-2000 stocks each weekend. Counting only about 35% in decent shape…which means 65% of the market is not.-
-OILS/ENERGY are easily the strongest area now. We saw them emerging but they are tough to play. Technically, they seem to be tired, extended and overbought here so will watch on pullbacks. A ton of that 35% is this area. Keep in mind, the RUSSELL is outperforming right now because it is laden with small OILS.-
-Seeing a few COMMODITY names emerge…FCX, MT, SCCO, VALE sticking out.-
-TRANSPORTS better after a couple strong days but not much better.-
-All important AAPL not helping…all the way down to the 200 day. Don’t have to tell you the influence it has. Guidance continues to come down as a slew of analysts lowered on weak stuff out of Taiwan Semi.-
-SEMIS are toast right now.  Wide and loose trading has lead to  SOX back at recent lows. A break of 1260 and then the 1200 gargantuan support is in play. Along with FINANCIALS, the most important area of the market as it has led up and down for ages.-
-The CONSUMER STAPLES (XLP) have basically crashed. We have been saying avoid for quite a while. Food, beverage, tobacco, household products, drugs. Tobacco was blasted this week.-
-HOUSING own private bear…as well as a slew of housing -related names.-
-REITS and UTILITIES have been drifting higher in their bearish phase but with BONDS looking in trouble again, they will most likely roll over again. 10 year yields very close to 3%.-
-Not thrilled that a bunch of IPOs coming out while market is under pressure. Would rather see lots of worry.-
-There are more new yearly lows than new yearly highs on all three indices.-
-Major indices pushed above the 50 day and immediately came back below. Does not mean the end of the world but nothing good can happen if it stays below.-
-FINANCIALS are blah…and mostly sitting below 50 day. Do make note ETFC, AMTD, SCHW act well.-
-While there are bases forming in some growth names, not trusting much right now and would cast a wary eye until a few things start working.-
-Other areas still in shape are DEFENSE, some RETAIL, some TECH.-
-And lastly, we do not think lows will break right now. In order for that to happen, we would need to see the financials XLF/KRE break support. TECH (XLK) would have to break. Just letting you know we think we will have a good idea if it decides to happen and our best guess that if it does happen…since the major support areas have held twice right at definable long term support, a break would lead to waterfall-type action as the big money would be yelling that they gave in. SO PAY ATTENTION IN THE COMING WEEKS. While we are not big on the “sell in May and go away” mantra, we recognize it is out there.-
-Will have a lot more as the reactions to earnings come out.-

PRE MARKET

Earnings:

GE surprises…actually up but meaningless to the DOW as it is low priced.

Leading names SKX, TEAM go bye bye.

Futures down but not a ton but:

Yesterday:

HOUSING looks like it is rolling over gain…from lower levels.

CONSUMER STAPLES new yearly lows. TOBACCO smoked (pun intended) as well as food, beverage, household priducts.

AUTOS look topped.

And the all-important SEMIS mauled yesterday as TSM lowers and giving overall poor SEMI guidance…hitting most names in the group hard. This is not good news for a market that has just bounced back into the middle of the range. The SEMIS have been a leader both up and down for a couple decades so something to watch closely.  The news from TSM hit AAPL as they stated smart phones weakening.

OILS remain with the bid but Trump is ripping OPEC today. Doubt it has an effect. Better action in COMMODITIES also.

FINANCIALS bounce every time long rates move up…exactly what happened yesterday.

They ain’t going to make things easy now. Just into the ping pong, back and forth again.