GREETINGS FROM THE CROSS HAIRS

By Gary Kaltbaum- September 8,2017 
I was going to do a nasty report on this latest deal between Trump and the Dems but figured that can wait. Will have plenty of time over the weekend for it.
Looks like we will get a Cat 2-3 here in Central Florida. I would like to say that’s good news, especially when expectations was for a 4, but I have been in every type of hurricane and CAT 2-3 sucks. I am expecting 100 mph winds with gusts even higher. Lots of rain and chance of tornadoes. I cannot even imagine South Florida right now. I lived just north of Hurricane Andrew’s hit. A few buddies and I went down there to volunteer after it hit…and to be blunt, we all thought a nuke hit.
This hurricane is much bigger in size. Simple as that. I do not even want to think of what kind of damage this hurricane will do. I would suggest the only good news is that it is moving fast. But I am expecting serious and massive damage. 
 
Traffic east to west on I-4 was non-existent this morning. Downtown feels like and is a ghost town. All company-owned Starbucks are shut. Gas is still plentiful here though some stations have run out. South to north driving  is a different story. As I write this, I-95 and I-75 into the Florida’s turnpike are basically parking lots. Airports are packed as people are trying to get out at the last minute. Private jets are numerous and have backed up take-offs. Schools are shut today and Monday and as I said, looks like many stayed home.  
On a positive note, I do not compliment government figures very often but Governor Ric Scott has done a fabulous job, out in front early and consistently. He really looks and acts the part of a leader.
We here in Florida all just watched Harvey. It looks like it is our turn. We are all ready. We are all keeping fingers crossed. Wish us well.

PRE MARKET

Futures flattish but a few things:

ECB will continue to print a trillion/year and keep rates negative “well past the horizon of their net asset purchases!” In other words, if they ever stop printing money, negative rates forever. They know not what they do as they think they are heroes. When the world prints trillions to buy assets, asset prices go up…until they are stretched…and then…

We are preparing for Irma. Those in South Florida should have already been done. Gas is limited. Traffic is congested. Here in Orlando, if the track stays the same, the eye should be around Daytona Beach 2 am Monday morning or surrounding area as it passes. Expectations are that Irma will be a CAT 3 or less as it moves over Florida. We expect gusts up to 100 mph with lots of rain and possibility for tornadoes. South Florida and the Keys look to be much worse. Here is the best view. It is updated every 3 hours. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/120644.shtml?cone#contents

Stay safe. Do not screw with this. Always err on the side of caution.

THE OPEN

After yesterday’s yuck, market bouncing today.

FINANCIALS bounce early…was hurt the most yesterday.

BIOTECHS in the green…strongest group near term.

ENERGY bouncing more…way oversold and another hurricane heading my way.

AIRLINES down again…lots of cancelled flights.

Will be back later. Right now, preparing for a Cat 3 hurricane in Central Florida. Key West and South Florida look to take the brunt.

EARLY NOTE ON FINANCIALS

The REGIONALS (KRE) already acting like the Mets. The biggies (XLF) and you know the names have been sitting with a small bias to the downside. In recent weeks, they teased the downside but eventually held. Most of these names pretty much have done nothing since last December after the initial “TRUMP” move.

Just letting you know that the XLF is again teasing a downside break. When you have a chance, take a gander at JPM, BAC, C, MS, BK and you will see toppy action. A few just breaking below the 50 day. These have been some of the stronger names. And there are weaker names like GS…which looks horrid. And of course, WFC is DOA as it has its own set of problems. 200 day average at around $24 for XLF. To be watched. Not usually thrilling when financials are gagging.

On the KRE, much worse. trading below all moving averages with huge support at about $51.

PRE MARKET

Futures down. Not a lot.

IRMA now a category 5. Be prepared. Get prepared. This is a killer storm that will play no favorites.

Quiet earnings week.

GOLD up again this morning. On the screens now.

Watching insurers as IRMA can be another costly storm.

Will have my usual logical but pointed comments on DACA on radio today at garyk.com.